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Outatime
Veteran
Joined: Fri Nov 04, 2005 9:00 pm
Posts: 3413
Location: South Florida
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47/135
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| Sun Apr 30, 2006 5:59 pm |
 
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Nazgul9
Extraordinary
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 12:32 pm
Posts: 11289
Location: Germany
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FILMOre McGilmore wrote: Personaly I think it looks lame... Surely, it doesn't look like being anything special, more like your run of the mill disaster movie, but i like my disaster movies and i like Kurt Russell, so i'll be there... _________________
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| Sun Apr 30, 2006 6:08 pm |
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MovieDude
Where will you be?
Joined: Tue Dec 21, 2004 4:50 am
Posts: 11675
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I'm impressed by the early reviews, here's hoping they keep up. At this point, if anything kills the movie, it'll be the competition. I'll be much more confident about Poseidon next week if MI3 opens to 55-60 million rather then if it opens to 80+.
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| Mon May 01, 2006 2:50 am |
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Bodrul
All Star Poster
Joined: Fri Oct 22, 2004 11:21 am
Posts: 4694
Location: Cambridge, England.
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For some reson i cant see this breaking $20million on opening weekend . . . and just found out it has a budget of $160million + marketing - BOMB
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| Mon May 01, 2006 8:09 am |
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Rolling Thunder
Forum General
Joined: Fri Nov 19, 2004 12:11 pm
Posts: 9148
Location: Kentucky Bluegrass
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hans wrote: For some reson i cant see this breaking $20million on opening weekend . . . and just found out it has a budget of $160million + marketing - BOMB I don't think it will do that great, but I can't see a PTA of any less than $10,000. People like disaster movies this time of year, no matter how bad they are marketed. It won't approach "The Day After Tomorrow"'s opening, but I can't see anything less than a $35 million OW, either.
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| Mon May 01, 2006 10:06 am |
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Rolling Thunder
Forum General
Joined: Fri Nov 19, 2004 12:11 pm
Posts: 9148
Location: Kentucky Bluegrass
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This is getting more of a push on TV - I think we'll see that ramp up after MI:3. The problem, as I see it, is that it seems so generic and doesn't have anywhere near the buzz I would come to expect of a disaster flick. Am I perhaps underestimating the draw of the Poseidon story? At least the movie poster is pretty cool. 
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| Tue May 02, 2006 8:43 am |
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Johnny Dollar
The Lubitsch Touch
Joined: Thu Jul 21, 2005 5:48 pm
Posts: 11019
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 Jeff Wells reports on tracking numbers....and it ain't pretty:
Quote: The biggest flop of the summer? I liked Poseidon and all, but financial prospects for this Warner Bros. release (5.12) are not good. It cost $160 million to make. To be regarded as a seriously performing hit, a movie of this sort needs to bring in $35 or $40 million on opening weekend. Right now, 10 days from opening day, tracking indicates perhaps a $15 million opening weekend at best. Having decided against a nationwide sneak last weekend, Warner Bros. is now trying to jack up interest with big ad buys. A 90-second trailer ran last night on NBC's Deal or No Deal, which is "very unusual", a marketing guy tells me. (Most TV spots for upcoming films run 15 to 30 seconds). Poseidon is a bracingly good disaster film as far as it goes, but interest levels are low. If it triples its opening weekend earnings Poseidon may end up with something like $45 million domestically. Obviously foreign, home video and cable will add to this, but that's still a fairly sucky number for a big movie like this. It should ideally earn at least $150 million domestically, and it may not even do a third of that.
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| Wed May 03, 2006 2:11 am |
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getluv
i break the rules, so i don't care
Joined: Sun May 15, 2005 4:28 pm
Posts: 20411
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It's going in the same direction as THE ISLAND.
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| Wed May 03, 2006 3:47 am |
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sop
Aspiring Director
Joined: Thu Dec 09, 2004 12:08 pm
Posts: 43
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28 / 85
It looks so much like these 70s films.
I can't see where they updated it.
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| Wed May 03, 2006 4:56 am |
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zingy
College Boy Z
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:40 pm
Posts: 36662
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The marketing is somewhat underwhelming, though I doubt it'll pull in just $15 million opening weekend (though, if it does, that's great news for M:I-3). I still think it'll be along the lines of $35-40 million.
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| Wed May 03, 2006 6:42 am |
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MovieDude
Where will you be?
Joined: Tue Dec 21, 2004 4:50 am
Posts: 11675
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Yikes, I wonder where he get those numbers from? It's been at 34-39 million for the past three weeks.
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| Wed May 03, 2006 1:36 pm |
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El Maskado
Arrrrrrrrrrgggghhhhhhhhhh!
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 8:17 pm
Posts: 21572
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I think it will get under a 30 million prediction. I remember last year there was less enthusiasm for Kingdom of Heaven which made me drop my prediction to 28 million. The general vibe right now is that theres less enthusiasm for Poseidon than KOH like last year, I think it will do below 30 million but its PG-13 rating will help it not drop down to KOH 21 million opening
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| Wed May 03, 2006 1:41 pm |
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jb007
Veteran
Joined: Sun Oct 17, 2004 1:47 pm
Posts: 3917
Location: Las Vegas
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Yikes!!!!
The movie looks like a big loser to me. Kurt Russell and Josh Lucas epitomize mediocrity or worse.
Maybe this will be KOH of 2006. Not under $50M total but an underwhelming total of $100M or so.
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The Greatest Actor Ever.
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| Wed May 03, 2006 1:43 pm |
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A. G.
Draughty
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:23 am
Posts: 13347
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This really has nothing in common with Kingdom of Heaven. That movie was a would-be historical epic starring mostly foreign non-star actors about a topic nobody cared a bout. Poseidon is a disaster movie, they typically are not as star dependent as other genres -- Dennis Quaid didn't have star power in The Day after Tomorrow, neither did Helen Hunt in Twister -- and it will deliver some good solid summer special effects. It's not a historical epic, it's a family friendly disaster movie. Compare it to Twister or other disaster movies, but KOH? Apples and Oranges.
Last edited by A. G. on Wed May 03, 2006 1:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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| Wed May 03, 2006 1:46 pm |
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El Maskado
Arrrrrrrrrrgggghhhhhhhhhh!
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 8:17 pm
Posts: 21572
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Josh Lucas
Nathan Fillan
Connie Neilson
all BO poison people
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| Wed May 03, 2006 1:47 pm |
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jb007
Veteran
Joined: Sun Oct 17, 2004 1:47 pm
Posts: 3917
Location: Las Vegas
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Sad Clown wrote: Josh Lucas
Nathan Fillan
Connie Neilson
all BO poison people And do not forget to add Kurt Russell to that list. 
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Dr. RajKumar 4/24/1929 - 4/12/2006
The Greatest Actor Ever.
Thanks for The Best Cinematic Memories of My Life.
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| Wed May 03, 2006 1:48 pm |
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A. G.
Draughty
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:23 am
Posts: 13347
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Sad Clown wrote: Josh Lucas
Nathan Fillan
Connie Neilson
all BO poison people That's typical of the genre. They aren't BO poison people though, they just are not draws. Disaster movies usually have well known actors who are not draws.
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| Wed May 03, 2006 1:48 pm |
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El Maskado
Arrrrrrrrrrgggghhhhhhhhhh!
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 8:17 pm
Posts: 21572
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jb007 wrote: And do not forget to add Kurt Russell to that list. Technically Sky High and Miracles are moderate hits and they are pretty recent. Josh Lucas only had a so so hit last january but generally hes BO poison
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| Wed May 03, 2006 1:59 pm |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am
Posts: 22182
Location: Places
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I see longest yard/fantastic four/i robot/t3 numbers...maybe abigger opening and smaller total...50/150
anywhere from 45-55and from 140-160.
the tv spots have totally stopped where i live.
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| Wed May 03, 2006 2:58 pm |
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El Maskado
Arrrrrrrrrrgggghhhhhhhhhh!
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 8:17 pm
Posts: 21572
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Tracking doesnt seem high at all for Poseidon and normally tracking drops their numbers a bit when the opening week moves forward. V for Vendetta was tracking close to 35 million I think and came under 26 million. I do see it more likely opening in the 25million to 30 million range. 50 million is totally out of the question since theres no real talk about the movie from what I heard, even movie polls dont include the movie on the to see list
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| Wed May 03, 2006 3:07 pm |
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Rolling Thunder
Forum General
Joined: Fri Nov 19, 2004 12:11 pm
Posts: 9148
Location: Kentucky Bluegrass
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Whatever the opening, the legs should be pretty weak with MI: 3 before it and DVC after. The competition should sink it, pun intended.
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| Wed May 03, 2006 3:07 pm |
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El Maskado
Arrrrrrrrrrgggghhhhhhhhhh!
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 8:17 pm
Posts: 21572
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Rolling Thunder wrote: Whatever the opening, the legs should be pretty weak with MI: 3 before it and DVC after. The competition should sink it, pun intended. Or the movie will just sail away into oblivion
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| Wed May 03, 2006 3:15 pm |
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zingy
College Boy Z
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:40 pm
Posts: 36662
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Well, I guess it'll be a disappointment in terms of domestic gross, but it won't be a bomb. Films like these have huge numbers internationally. I'm sure it'll be profitable no matter what.
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| Wed May 03, 2006 3:37 pm |
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El Maskado
Arrrrrrrrrrgggghhhhhhhhhh!
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 8:17 pm
Posts: 21572
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Magnus101 wrote: Zingaling wrote: Well, I guess it'll be a disappointment in terms of domestic gross, but it won't be a bomb. Films like these have huge numbers internationally. I'm sure it'll be profitable no matter what. Well, it'll be like a Troy in which it'll make a profit but it still be considered to be a big dissapointment to the studio. Nowhere near Troy's success. Troy did ok in the US but did extremely well overseas. Its probably going to be like KOH where it bombed in the US and made a fortune overseas. Something like 75 million would make Poseidon a bomb but I can see it falling around that range because of the upcoming movies it faces
The final straw maybe was WB wasnt confident enough to release SR on Poseidon and made last min changes to have Paramount release it with MI3 instead
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| Wed May 03, 2006 3:45 pm |
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Rolling Thunder
Forum General
Joined: Fri Nov 19, 2004 12:11 pm
Posts: 9148
Location: Kentucky Bluegrass
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If anything will help Poseidon, it will be the fact it has only one strong competitor opening weekend - albeit the fierce MI:3. If it were opening in 3-4 weeks from now, I'd be thinking a possible sub $30M open.
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| Wed May 03, 2006 3:58 pm |
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