My predicts for Friday grosses...

Scary Movie 4 - 22-23M (53-55M OW)
The Wild - 4-5M (10-13M OW)
Thank You For Smoking - 2-2.5M (5-6.5M 3-day)

Scary Movie 4 - 5698, +61, B+
The Wild - 561, +7, C+
Thank You for Smoking - 1890, 578 Friday, +16, B

One more update to go, but I'll predict $20-21 million for Scary Movie 4 ($49-51M weekend), $4.5-5.5 million for The Wild ($11-13M weekend) and $2-2.5 million ($5-6M weekend) for Thank You for Smoking.

Final update:

Scary Movie 4 - 5736, +38, B+
The Wild - 563, +2, C+
Thank You for Smoking - 1893, 581 Friday, +3, B

I'll say:
Scary Movie 4 - 21.5 mil
The Wild - 4.8 mil
Thank You for Smoking - 3.0 mil

Hellboy was in it's second weekend. TW10Y had a much older audience then SM. In fact, the original increased 77% on it's first Sat. The thing is teens will push the Friday number up and increase the Sat. drop.

Anchorman was 10.8%, which is in range. Add in the sequel factor and you would be there.

Anyway, I don't think the main thing is whether they are comedy sequels, but the rating. R rated movies, or action films such as I, Robot that attract more adults, are the ones not to drop much on Sat. in the summer. However, PG-13 movies, with teens out from school tend to see the larger drops. If released in July I think SM4 would drop over 15% since it skews so strongly to the teen audience. This weekend, it can be over 25% IMO.

It seems to have been a bit clogged at the end which should lower the 4 hour ratios.

My projections:

Scary Movie 4 - 275 seems right; 20.9m. That's a 19.2 4 hour ratio which seems right with some clogging.

The Wild - It's tough to predict this one. However, I've never seen anything over 100, and it would make sense that Good Friday would lower this ratio more then any other. C+ isn't yet the point at which the grade really increases the ratio. I'm going to go with only about 90 for 6.25m. It may be risky considering that a 4 hour ratio of 4 is needed, but Nanny McPhee has nearly that low when it was also clogged, and the matinee numbers this Friday can really have a dramatic effect on the 4 hour ratio. We'll see.

Thank You for Smoking - Well, I just don't see how it could get 3m or near it and not have a drop in the PTA this weekend while expanding into 715 more theaters. I remember how high of a ratio BBM had when it was on the frontpage after being in limited release. This only has a link, but I could understand a ratio over 300 (BBM was like 2,000). I'm going to guess that this is a case where yahoo is misleading, and the gross will be under 2.0m.

I dont know where the "solid wom" thing is coming from? Yahoo Movies? Because when I was leaving the screen there was not one nice thing said about SM4. Which was kind of unfair because it wasn't bad. But people were like, cursing it.

Oh, you shnobbish Englishmen.

I'm Scottish.

Yeah, well, you thought Failure to Launch had bad WOM and it's on its way to around $85-90 million total.

So, what's the outlook?

I'm thinking about 135 for Silent Hill, 70 for The Sentinel, and 145 for American Dreamz. For SH, Amityville and Exorcism had 125-130 but this has the gaming factor to push it up a bit to that level. The Sentinel's 70 should be regular adult thriller. For AD, it'll be above In Good Company's 126 thanks to worse reviews and more young appeal.

I kind've suck though, so DP07 and xiayun will have the right words.

Silent Hill, 13, B+
The Sentinel, 5, B+
American Dreamz, 9, B

Silent Hill, 23, +10 B (down from B+)
The Sentinel, 6, +1 B+
American Dreamz, 13, +4 B
Friends With Money, 240, Friday 3, B-

American Dreamz has the frontpage picture. It would have a high ratio anyway, and I think the picture can more then double the ratio. I give it 500-600, maybe more.

Silent Hill - It might be 140 without the link, but I'll say 200.

The Sentinel should be near 100. Don't worry if it seems low in the morning; it will be backloaded.

I could potentially see Silent Hill actually having a MUCH higher ratio, maybe in the 160-180 range. Not saying it will, but if it breaks out I wouldn't immediately lean towards a 10+ million opening day as much as the big online fanbase. Agree on The Sentinel and American Dreamz for the most part, although with the bad reviews, American Idol fanbase, and low theater count I think it could also go somewhat higher.

Silent Hill, 26, +3 B
The Sentinel, 7, +1 B+
American Dreamz, 14, +1 B- (down from B)
Friends With Money, 240, Friday 3, B-

Cloggerooed. Good to see you lurking again RT.

Silent Hill, 29, +3 B+ (up from B)
The Sentinel, 8 +1 B+
American Dreamz, 15, +1 B-
Friends With Money, 240, Friday 3, B-

Kind of a slow-go for the early morning.

Thanks, man - nice to see you too. Do you think we're clogged this morning or just off to a slow start?

Silent Hill, 235, +206 B
The Sentinel, 63 +55 B-
American Dreamz, 121, +106 B-
Friends With Money, 245, Friday 8, B-

Unclogged.

Man I should of stuck to my first instinct of 15 million for Silent Hill back in the fall but got pressured to bump it to 25 million because of the damn high predictions for the movie in this forum

Nice jump for Silent Hill.

Silent Hill is actually looking pretty good. Though early, I think $20m is a pretty safe bet.

Generally agreeing with DP: over 400 for American Dreamz, 180 for Silent Hill, and 100-120 for Sentinel.

Silent Hill, 258, +23 B
The Sentinel, 77 +14 B-
American Dreamz, 131, +10 C+ (Down from B-)
Friends With Money, 247, Friday 10, +2 B-