Poseidon isn't down at all? It stayed the same from last week.

And, ReelSource often overprojects films with awareness. They had RV and The Shaggy Dog both over $25 million opening weekend, while MTC had them under $18 million and turned out to be right.

DVC is being overpredictted, IMO. Adults typically don't rush out on OW like teens do, so this leads me to believe it will be long legs over over a massive weekend. I think the MTC tracking seems about right at the moment.

The Da Vinci Code's tracking isn't from MTC, it's from ReelSource. I think it looks fine. I've had a feeling for a while that it might be overpredicted. It'll be a leggy film, but not a huge, $70+ million opening weekend.

BTW, M:I-3 is on Moviefone, to no surprise.

MI3 - 70m
American Haunting - 6m
Hoot - 5m

Not a good sign at all for MI3. Mad props to DP07 if this doesn't clear 65 million this weekend. Honestly, I wouldn't b e surprised. Mission: Impossible is a brand name, but the trailers don't really supply that "money shot" to make me think it'd be a lock for 75-80+ million.

It has been on uninterruptedly for a week at least, something we expect for a $60+ million opener.

Early Predictions

1. Mission: Impossible 3 - $70 million
2. R.V. - $10 million
3. Hoot - $8.5 million
4. United 93 - $7.5 million
5. Stick It - $6.5 million
6. An American Haunting - $5.5 million
7. Silent Hill - $4.5 million
8. Akeelah and the Bee - $4 million
9. The Sentinel - $4 million
10. Scary Movie 4 - $3.5 million

*****MY PREDICTIONS FOR NEXT WEEKEND*****

1. MISSION IMPOSSIBLE 3 - 67.8 MILLION
2. HOOT - 11 MILLION
3. RV - 10.7 MILLION
4. AN AMERICAN HAUNTING - 9.1 MILLION
5. UNITED 93 - 8 MILLION
6. STICK IT - 7 MILLION
7. SILENT HILL - 4.5 MILLION
8. THE SENTINEL - 4.2 MILLION
9. AKEELAH & THE BEE - 4 MILLION
10. ICE AGE 2 - 4 MILLION
11. SCARY MOVIE 4 - 3.8 MILLION


AN AMERICAN HAUNTING will be a sleeper hit for sure. It could make anywhere from 8-13 Million this weekend. I've seen more TV spots for it than any of the openers and they are really good and effective.

Early Predictions

Mission: Impossible 3: - $68 million (lacks a solid money shot to put it at $70M+)
American Haunting - $9 million (from the ads, I think this will surprise a lot of folks)
Hoot - $7 million (Should do OK, but this is a mildly popular book aimed at a very focused child demo)

Mission: Impossible 3 - $73.39 million
Hoot - $9.71 million
United 93 - $9.10 million
American Haunting - $6.34 million

Hmmmm according to MovieFone it looks as though the first MI movie will beat MI3 this weekend, not a good sign at all.

1 Mission: Impossible (PG-13)
2 Mission: Impossible III (PG-13)
3 United 93 (R)
4 The Sentinel (PG-13)
5 Stick It (PG-13)

Box Office Guru has M:I-3 at $74 million, Hoot at $9 million, and An American Haunting at $5 million, all in line with what I expect for the weekend.

Mision Imposible 3: 68.5

Still no sign of Hoot anywhere (Yahoo or moviefone, which has a feature ad). It isn't a big ratio movie, but my feeling on it has not yet improved.

The derby average for An American Haunting is $10.1 million right now...

I've not seen a single ad for this. This is gonna bomb hard.

[table][row color=#FF0000][col color=#FF0000]Movie[col color=#FF0000]Prediction[col color=#FF0000]% Change[row color=#FFFF99]#1[col color=#FFFF99]Mission: Impossible III[col color=#CCFFFF]$ 65.8 million[col color=#FFFF99]NEW[row color=#FFFF99]#2[col color=#FFFF99]RV[col color=#CCFFFF]$ 10.4 million[col color=#FFFF99]-36.6%[row color=#FFFF99]#3[col color=#FFFF99]Hoot[col color=#CCFFFF]$ 8.8 million[col color=#FFFF99]NEW[row color=#FFFF99]#4[col color=#FFFF99]United 93[col color=#CCFFFF]$ 5.9 million[col color=#FFFF99]-48.6%[row color=#FFFF99]#5[col color=#FFFF99]Stick It[col color=#CCFFFF]$ 5.9 million[col color=#FFFF99]-45.4%[row color=#FFFF99]#6[col color=#FFFF99]Silent Hill[col color=#CCFFFF]$ 4.8 million[col color=#FFFF99]-48.6%[row color=#FFFF99]#7[col color=#FFFF99]Ice Age: The Meltdown[col color=#CCFFFF]$ 4.5 million[col color=#FFFF99]-37.5%[row color=#FFFF99]#8[col color=#FFFF99]Scary Movie 4[col color=#CCFFFF]$ 4.4 million[col color=#FFFF99]-43.6%[row color=#FFFF99]#9[col color=#FFFF99]An American Haunting[col color=#CCFFFF]$ 3.9 million[col color=#FFFF99]NEW[row color=#FFFF99]#10[col color=#FFFF99]The Sentinel[col color=#CCFFFF]$ 3.6 million[col color=#FFFF99]-53.8%[row color=#FFFF99]#11[col color=#FFFF99]Akeelah and the Bee[col color=#CCFFFF]$ 3.5 million[col color=#FFFF99]-41.8%[row color=#FFFF99]#12[col color=#FFFF99]The Wild[col color=#CCFFFF]$ 2.4 million[col color=#FFFF99]-50.0%[/table]This table brought to you by Excel2BB Converter. Created by Krem for World of KJ

Final Derby Predictions:

1. Mission: Impossible III- $65.3 million
2. RV- $10.7 million
3. Hoot- $8.8 million
4. United 93- $7.3 million
5. An American Haunting- $6.0 million
6. Stick It- $5.4 million
7. Silent Hill- $4.6 million
8. The Sentinel- $4.0 million
9. Scary Movie 4- $3.8 million
10. Akeelah and the Bee- $3.7 million

MG my bet is you're following SM3's run, like I attempted to do last weekend. Doesn't work Trust me. It'll fall over 50%...

It dropped more last weekend because two weeks after Easter family films and teen movies tend to have larger then usual drops.

Another KJ weekend.

Still. Any teen audience it has left will be taken by M:I-3 dontcha think?

I'd guess not. Comedy and action don't usually have such a direct effect on each other.

Final Derby Predicts:

1. Mission Impossible III- $71.8 mil
2. RV- $9.7 mil
3. Hoot- $9.0 mil
4. United 93- $5.9 mil
5. Stick It- $5.8 mil
6. American Haunting- $4.1 mil
7. Silent Hill- $4.1 mil
8. Akeelah and the Bee- $3.7 mil
9. The Sentinel- $3.7 mil
10. Scary Movie 4- $3.6 mil