1 The Firm Par. $158,348,367 2,393 $25,400,000 2,393 7/2/93
2 A Time to Kill WB $108,766,007 2,313 $14,823,159 2,123 7/26/96
3 The Pelican Brief WB $100,768,056 2,022 $16,864,404 1,993 12/17/93
4 The Client WB $92,115,211 2,365 $17,174,262 2,052 7/22/94

Here are John Grisham books to make the most. Adjusted for inflation, the Client is upwards of $140 m, while TPB and ATTK are upwards of $160 m, while the firm would be at $250 m +. Thus, The Firm might be a good Da Vinci Code comparison, as it opened in the summer, over a heavily hyped weekend, and had a big star (Cruise). But with thrillers like these doing upwards of $150 m adjusted, one as heavily hyped as TDC, and with the best release date of the year, should be able to outpace the Grisham films, aside from The Firm, which has yet to be determined.

I think everyone is looking at this movie ALL the wrong way.

Well, what's the "right" way?

Not the vein of films this movie is being compared to.

My Prediction is $78/340

In the case of a softer opening, which i think is possible $65/ $320

I can't make up my mind on this one.

On the one hand you have Hanks, who is arguably the most "liked" actor to US audiences in the right project and this is the most popular novel of this decade.

On the other hand you have an adult-oriented not very exciting thriller plot with revelations that will leave people going "is that all there is?"

My best guess for now is that it will have a 55ish opening and long legs due to adult appeal, with about 200 total.

Hmm, I don't know about the opening, but I feel that people are overestimating the legs big time. It will be a bit frontloaded, really. For a book adaptation of such a huge bestseller, it'd be normal. I don't really see a multiplier above 3.5, at most.

My final prediction:As I said big opening than bad-mediocre legs:
70/171

X3 and MI3 will each gross more than Da Vinci...

http://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=19079

I'm becoming more optimistic.

New prediction:
Opening: 102m
Total: 340m

Every anticipation poll has it doing very well even though those things skew away from it's older audience. The yahoo buzz index score is incredible. Tracking is great (60% definite interest; 29% first choice). #2 movie of the year.

A $100M+ OW? Wow, that is a bold prediction. That's about half of mine, actually.

So, you are predicting 200m+ opening?

DP07 is back on the bottle I see

I agree. I think The Bourne Surpremacy is an almost perfect comparision.

A Frenchie actress and an american agnostic in a 'religious thriller', being released near freaking Memorial Day...


On the negative side we have high gas prices....
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cheers....

Bourne Suprmecy got a multiplier of, like, 3.7. Hardly a *perfect* comparison, but generally, I agree.

3.356, which is more or less what I'm expecting.

You guys will be forced to let me out of the KJ loony bin after opening weekend.

MI3 and Poseidon may both disappoint. This suddenly brings up the potential to TDC immensely. If both MI3 and Poseidon fail together to top $250 m, I'd say that would add another $50 m hypothetically to TDC's total.

I didn't even realize this until now, but The Da Vinci Code has an aggressive toy promotional campaign going on as well!

From Yahoo:

Toy makers bet on blockbuster films for sales

Fri May 05,10:27 PM ET

Dan Brown's blockbuster book "The Da Vinci Code" has been at or near the top of the bestseller list for more than three years, and as the movie version gets set to open the question is whether toys and games tied to the movie and other much-hyped summer films can garner as much interest.

The summer movie season kicks off this weekend with the release of "Mission: Impossible III," and toy makers will soon find out if toys aligned with these films will produce a sizzling pay day or a financial flop.

Toy makers have lined up behind anticipated hits like Sony Pictures' "The Da Vinci Code," Warner Bros.' "Superman Returns," Walt Disney Co. and Pixar's "Cars," and Disney's "Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest." "M:i:III" is being released by Paramount Pictures, which is a unit of media giant Viacom Inc.

Industry watchers said this summer's films have the potential to spur strong toy sales. But they also said changes in the film industry and children's tastes mean replicating the success of a "Star Wars" franchise is becoming more difficult.

Last summer's movie season meant big sales for Hasbro Inc., with "Star Wars" products bringing in almost $500 million in revenue, spurred by the release of "Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith."


But success is by no means guaranteed. In 1999, Hasbro shipped millions of dollars of Star Wars merchandise ahead of the opening of "Episode I: Phantom Menace," only to see inventory languish after the movie disappointed fans.

"It's unlikely that even if movies get off to a great start, that it's going to generate toy sales as long as Star Wars did last year," said Sean McGowan, a toy analyst with Harris Nesbitt.

WATCHING AND LEARNING

Signing up to make toys for an unreleased movie is always risky since there is no way to predict if a film will be a success or if it can translate into toy sales.

"The licensed toy business is one of the highest risk businesses you can be in. It's a fashion business that comes and goes," said Marc Rosenberg, chief marketing officer of privately owned Zizzle LLC, which is making toys for the "Pirates" sequel.

After seeing Hasbro struggle with "Phantom Menace," toy makers became more cautious about promising studios hundreds of millions of dollars to get toy licensing rights, McGowan said.

Toy companies still guarantee studios a total dollar amount for the license, but the guarantees and the advanced payments that go with them are more conservative, he said.

But toy makers still jump at the chance to align with hot films.

"As soon as we heard just the rumor of a movie, we raced to get the license," said Warren Industries president, Barrie Simpson, of her company's sprint for the rights to make the board game for The Da Vinci Code movie.

She said that a typical successful adult board game would sell around 100,000 pieces, but she believes for Da Vinci the board game will sell 200,000 to 250,000 minimum. She said the game will be priced between $24.99 - $29.99.

Warren, a unit of Mega Bloks, has already shipped the game to bookstores ahead of the May 19 movie release, hoping those who buy the book will also want the game.

But Jim Silver, editor-in-chief of Toy Wishes magazine, said even the most hyped movies can be a challenge to translate into toy and game sales. He pointed to "The Last Action Hero" with Arnold Schwarzenegger, which was billed as a big summer action film but was panned by critics.

"What was so special about him in the movie that a child would want him? He didn't have cool weapons, he didn't have a cool vehicle. He didn't translate well at all," he said.

ONE-TWO PUNCH

Silver said sales of toys from Superman Returns -- like the inflatable Superman costume Mattel has designed -- and Cars should do well. But he said it is hard to predict Pirates toy sales since there were none for the first film.

Rosenberg said Zizzle placed its bet on the Pirates sequel after the first film did well in theaters.

Zizzle expect two sales bursts -- one when the movie hits theaters and one when the DVD is released this fall. It has toys in stores now and another wave coming for the holidays.

But McGowan said the fast-paced movie-to-DVD cycle can hurt toy sales since there is a shorter time when movie studios throw promotional dollars behind films, keeping them on shopper's radar screens.

"(Movies) happen and they're over as events quicker than they used to," he said.

While Star Wars toys did well in part because the franchise has an existing fan base that spans multiple age groups, McGowan said kids these days are no longer as interested in buying licensed toys.

"Kids love to watch the movie, but it doesn't mean they want to turn around and be these characters in toy form," he said.

But toy makers remain optimistic. Warren Industries' Simpson said the fact that the Da Vinci Code book has remained a top seller overweighed the risks of tying up with the movie.

"In any business situation, there's a downside risk," Simpson said. "However, I think this will be minimal with this particular movie."



Well I knew that Superman Returns, Cars, and POTC would get a big toys boost, but didn't think that Da Vinci Code would. But this development tells me that Sony may push it with younger audiences as well, so that only adds to its grosses.

The true summer movie doesnt start till may 26, the rest of the may openers will be peanuts in comparison. It seems to always takes a mid may release like Shrek 2 or ROTS to bring out the monster summer season start but since MI3 may disappoint, I think that increases Da Vincis chances of reaching closer to 300 million, I may be wrong

With MI3 looking to gross below $170m and Poseidon below $150m - Da Vinci will be the big winner at the May BO. With the success of the book and anticipation among adults - $300m looks very good.

Below 100m and 60m I'd say right now.

I think DaVinci will have a pretty good appeal to teenagers 16+ years of age. This is not a standard "adult thriller".

Nice contest in that link above, that's a ton of goodies.