Looking good for Silent Hill.

Fantastic number for M:I-3. Poseidon and United 93 seems kinda low, while RV seems extremely high.

Meh. If Ice Cube and Are We There Yet? can somehow (ugh) grab $18M, a family comedy starring Robin Williams doing $25M isn't all that inconceivable.

Hmm, I guess Silent Hill will win this weekend. With the right marketing The Sentinel would have given it a run for its money, but it doesn't seem to be getting a big push. And American Dreamz is just confusing...I've seen more advertising for it than any other opener this week, yet the theater count makes it seem like the studio's dumping it.

As for future movies, I think MI3 is about 10-20 mill too high at least and Poseidon around 10-20 mill too low. Everything else looks about right.

Silent Hill will do really good. I have a feeling The Sentinel will disappoint.

Silent Hill- 23.6
The Sentinel- 13.2
American Dreamz- 7.7

SM4- 17.2
IA2- 13.4

Even though it's still early, American Dreamz' RT rating is certainly not encouraging: 20% with an average of 3.4. IMDb users are more kind so far.

MTC is spot on with my predictions. Goody.

Wow, I'm amazed @ RV. It just struck me as yet another Firewall-style return to form for a once-B.O.-draw, but I guess Family Comedy Return > Action Thriller Return?

Of course, Firewall was heavily overprojected also, so it could easily be off also. But still. . .

And how many movies have tracked as high as M:I-3? HP4 I know was, but what else?

Nice to see MI3 tracking 84m already hope it can get to 100m by opening wknd.

mi3 will fall...poseidon will rise a lot once the tv spots begin. its at 34 million with little public marketing.

you guys i havent seen a single american dreamz tv spots, and ive seen bout 2 spots for silent hill, but ive seen dozns of sentinal spots.

Silent Hill - 29m
The Sentinel - 19m
American Dreamz - 5m

Silent Hill is on moviefone. Not a bad sign.

It probably doesn't mean much, since horror/thriller films aimed at teens/young adults
tend to show up early. But you're right, it's certainly not a bad sign.

Also, my theater is getting two screens of Silent Hill, and is putting it in the two 575 seaters, that's not a bad sign either.

Silent Hill - $20 million
The Sentinel - $17 million
American Dreamz - $8 million
Friends With Money - $4 million

That MI3 number from Reel Source is overinflated because of name recognition, which is a lot of what they factor into their predictions... they ended up with Bridget Jones 2 around $28 million and it barely made that *TOTAL*. MTC is more accurate than Reel Source, but they tend to mysteriously not get posted all the time... until after the weekend is over. Also, RV seems extremely high and Flight 93 is being underestimated... if they're asking 18-25 year olds, they're not going to have much interest.

I think SILENT HILL is guaranteed to open between $15M-$20M.
But i'm just hoping it pushes itself passed the 20 mark.
I really do hope they put it in alot more theatres than the 2,400 estimated on BOM.

Lee has officially lost it.

He is predicting $14M for The Sentinel (reasonable), $16M for Silent Hill (probably low) and $20M for American Dreamz (yikes).

Fool.

BTW, Weekend Warrior.

Sentinel - 21m
Silent Hill - 9M

Believe it or not, my screenwriting teachers told me, before their lecture, to talk about what to expect for next weekend at the box office (since the topic was marketing screenplays, when to release a movie, and pay attention to box office).

I said what I expect from the openers. They all agreed on my analysis on Silent Hill (I said it would do anything between 16 - 20 million). Though they were shocked about a American Dreamz prediction being in the 6 million range. What cool teachers I have.

Also, they promoted the worldofkj.com at the end of class.

Not sure if anyone saw this mentioned, but the theatre count for Silent Hill is going to be over 2,900. Someone from ComingSoon.net posted it on the HSX boards yesterday, and the number is changed in WW.

Silent Hill: $18 Million
The Sentinel: $14 Million
American Dreamz: $6 million

Silent Hill - the no-name cast and R-rating is a concern to me, even if it proves to be a good adaptation.

The Sentinel - a stellar cast probably won't make up for the lack of awareness with this film. $20 million would be great, but I just don't see it happening.

American Dreamz: If "From Justin To Kelly" bombed, this should see the same fate - Hugh Grant or not. I don't buy the argument that the AI crowd will be out in droves.

My final predictions....

1. Silent Hill $21.1M
2. Scary Movie 4 $17.0M
3. Ice Age 2 $13.0M
4. The Sentinel $10.5M
5. American Dreamz $7.9M
6. The Wild $6.0M

IMO, with it's older cast we've seen before, and another 'political thriller' plot, The Sentinel would have been better if it were released in 1987. Sorry, but we've seen this before. With the same actors too.

So how many theatres will American Dreamz open with?

1,500.