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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am Posts: 40593
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So it acts like a regular weekend?
_________________Shack’s top 50 tv shows - viewtopic.php?f=8&t=90227
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Tue Apr 11, 2006 3:29 am |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm Posts: 25035 Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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Nice to see The Wild go down in tracking three weeks in a row 
_________________The Force Awakens
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Tue Apr 11, 2006 3:54 am |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm Posts: 25035 Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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Shack wrote: So it acts like a regular weekend?
Saturday will suck, So will Sunday.
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Tue Apr 11, 2006 3:56 am |
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RB652
Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince
Joined: Sun Nov 07, 2004 12:23 pm Posts: 403 Location: New York City
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Scary Movie 4 - 42 mil
The Wild - 13 mil
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Tue Apr 11, 2006 6:46 am |
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misterglass
Iron Man
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 12:56 pm Posts: 678
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Going by past years, you usually have to multiply the Friday numbers by anwhere from 2.3 (kids movies) to 2.6-7 for returning movies/adult fare. Because kids have off school on Good Friday, they'll go see family films then but then Easter Sunday isn't a great day for movies. For instance, if you think Scary MOvie can do $50 million over the weekend, you should divide by 2.5 (or less!) to figure out how much it might make on Friday. ($20 million!) So it does tend to affect movies more towards the negative than the positive because Sunday is slower than a normal Sunday.
_________________ misterglass/NYC
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Tue Apr 11, 2006 10:09 am |
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The Scottie
King Albert!
Joined: Sun Oct 17, 2004 1:04 pm Posts: 11838 Location: The Happiest City on Earth
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misterglass wrote: Going by past years, you usually have to multiply the Friday numbers by anwhere from 2.3 (kids movies) to 2.6-7 for returning movies/adult fare. Because kids have off school on Good Friday, they'll go see family films then but then Easter Sunday isn't a great day for movies. For instance, if you think Scary MOvie can do $50 million over the weekend, you should divide by 2.5 (or less!) to figure out how much it might make on Friday. ($20 million!) So it does tend to affect movies more towards the negative than the positive because Sunday is slower than a normal Sunday.
You are exactly right.
Also, this is why the monday drops are so low, especially since it's spring break for the kiddies.
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Tue Apr 11, 2006 3:45 pm |
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xiayun
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:41 pm Posts: 25109 Location: San Mateo, CA
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Scary Movie 4 is on moviefone without big frontpage ads, pretty much what I expected in order for it to open in the $40m range. The BOM poll number (31.7% Opening Weekend) is very strong. The Wild's (7.0% Opening Weekend) isn't terrible either; by comparison, Valiant had 4.6%, so the PTA shouldn't be below $4,000.
_________________Recent watched movies: American Hustle - B+ Inside Llewyn Davis - B Before Midnight - A 12 Years a Slave - A- The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - A- My thoughts on box office
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Wed Apr 12, 2006 2:51 am |
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DP07
The Thirteenth Floor
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 2:26 am Posts: 15573 Location: Everywhere
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xiayun wrote: Scary Movie 4 is on moviefone without big frontpage ads, pretty much what I expected in order for it to open in the $40m range. The BOM poll number (31.7% Opening Weekend) is very strong. The Wild's (7.0% Opening Weekend) isn't terrible either; by comparison, Valiant had 4.6%, so the PTA shouldn't be below $4,000.
Good for Scary Movie, although for kids movies BOM polls seem like such indirect indicators that I'm skeptical of their usefulness.
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Wed Apr 12, 2006 2:56 am |
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misterglass
Iron Man
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 12:56 pm Posts: 678
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I don't think you can really give much weight to moviefone when Lucky Number Slevin is #1, Take the Lead is #2 and the top movie in the country is #5. 
_________________ misterglass/NYC
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Wed Apr 12, 2006 4:49 am |
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xiayun
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:41 pm Posts: 25109 Location: San Mateo, CA
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Hehe, you're again missing the point on how to use moviefone as a tool.
_________________Recent watched movies: American Hustle - B+ Inside Llewyn Davis - B Before Midnight - A 12 Years a Slave - A- The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - A- My thoughts on box office
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Wed Apr 12, 2006 12:35 pm |
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xiayun
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:41 pm Posts: 25109 Location: San Mateo, CA
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Good stats from Horlicks at HSX:
Horlicks wrote: For your consideration this weekend...previous IMs for the last few Easter weekends. -- Horlicks (aka "trike2"), Apr 12, 15:33 I haven't included films that opened on the Wednesday before (MISC2, JFVAC, BPMNK).
2002
PROOM - 2.55 ROKIE - 2.63 CSTOP - 2.40
2003
HCRPS - 2.62 HOLES - 2.20 MLIBU - 2.30
2004
ALAMO - 2.71 9YRD2 - 2.52 ELLAE - 2.25 GRLND - 2.51
2005
GSWHO - 2.64
Basically the IMs are going to be quite a bit less than usual, especially for TWILD since children's films are affected most. Something in the realm of 2.60 for SCAR4 and TYSMK might be in order (maybe slightly higher for SCAR4), and then TWILD might see a 2.30 or maybe 2.40. Just another thing to take into consideration come Friday when positions are being taken.
_________________Recent watched movies: American Hustle - B+ Inside Llewyn Davis - B Before Midnight - A 12 Years a Slave - A- The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - A- My thoughts on box office
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Wed Apr 12, 2006 8:54 pm |
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zingy
College Boy Z
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:40 pm Posts: 36662
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The Wild is on Moviefone, but there's also a related article on the front page as well.
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Thu Apr 13, 2006 12:53 am |
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zingy
College Boy Z
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:40 pm Posts: 36662
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Box Office Guru
I just can't see less than $40 million for Scary Movie 4 this weekend. I also think he's overpredicting The Wild quite a bit.
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Thu Apr 13, 2006 1:14 am |
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xiayun
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:41 pm Posts: 25109 Location: San Mateo, CA
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Every site is earlier this week:
Variety:
Scary Movie 4 - has a good shot of besting the $48.1 million bow in October 2003 of Scary Movie 3
The Wild - An opening in the 20s seems likely
Full article
The Hollywood Reporter. I don't have subscription, but the opening summary said it expects Meltdown to take the 2nd spot over The Wild.
_________________Recent watched movies: American Hustle - B+ Inside Llewyn Davis - B Before Midnight - A 12 Years a Slave - A- The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - A- My thoughts on box office
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Thu Apr 13, 2006 2:51 am |
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Impact
Kiera Knightly is my lady!
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 1:18 pm Posts: 8773 Location: New Mexico
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Derby:
1. Not So Scary Movie: 30.0
2. The Calm: 20.0
3. Stone Age: The Heat down: 18.9
4. Bench Coolers: 9.9
5. Steal the Lead: 6.8
6. Outside Man: 5.2
7. Thank You for getting Cancer: 5.0
8. Lucky Number Seven: 4.0
9. Lucky to Launch: 2.7
10. M for Movie: 1.9
_________________ Isn't it ironic that Hollywood mocks Gibson for drunk driving yet praises Polanski who molested a child? Or praises Edward Kenedy who killed someone while drunk driving?
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Thu Apr 13, 2006 4:51 pm |
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rolandka19
Indiana Jones IV
Joined: Sat Oct 30, 2004 9:33 am Posts: 1117 Location: Somewhere in the East Coast
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Final Derby Predictions:
1. Scary Movie 4- $37.3 million
2. Ice Age: The Meltdown- $19.7 million
3. The Wild- $17.1 million
4. The Benchwarmers- $10.2 million
5. Take the Lead- $7.2 million
6. Inside Man- $5.6 million
7. Thank You for Smoking- $5.1 million
8. Lucky Number Slevin- $3.9 million
9. Failure to Launch- $2.5 million
10. V For Vendetta- $2.0 million
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Thu Apr 13, 2006 11:04 pm |
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DP07
The Thirteenth Floor
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 2:26 am Posts: 15573 Location: Everywhere
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WSEX has Scary Movie 4 at 40m, with the money lines being -130 for over and EVEN for under. So, I guess that indicates something around 43m.
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Thu Apr 13, 2006 11:12 pm |
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paper
Artie the One-Man Party
Joined: Sat Sep 17, 2005 2:53 pm Posts: 4632
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Final predicts are generally close to the derby avg. (not purposely)...SM4 I went with 43 million...I can't see the hype overpassing that of 3.
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Thu Apr 13, 2006 11:29 pm |
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A. G.
Draughty
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:23 am Posts: 13347
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Scary Movie 4: 47m
The Wild - 18m
SM3 had the advantage of opening near Halloween. SM4 won't have that but will be offset by slightly higher ticket prices and possibly being a better film, for a net wash. The Wild doesn't have to make very much on Friday to outperform most expectations.
WoKJ where we pretend to understand the movie business.
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Fri Apr 14, 2006 12:01 am |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am Posts: 40593
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Likely Final Predictions
1. Scary Movie 4 - $47.9 million($13,300 PTA)
2. Ice Age 2 - $21.3 million(-38%)
3. The Wild - $13.6 million($4800 PTA)
4. Benchwarmers - $9.8 million(-50%)
5. Take the Lead - $7.2 million(-40%)
6. Inside Man - $5.6 million(-39%)
7. Thank You for Smoking - $4.4 million($4300 PTA)
8. Lucky Number Slevin - $3.7 million(-47%)
9. Failure to Launch - $2.6 million(-37%)
10. V for Vendetta - $1.8 million(-46%)
Still a bit wary on The Wild, moviefone makes to want to predict $5000+.
_________________Shack’s top 50 tv shows - viewtopic.php?f=8&t=90227
Last edited by Shack on Fri Apr 14, 2006 1:34 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Fri Apr 14, 2006 1:12 am |
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xiayun
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:41 pm Posts: 25109 Location: San Mateo, CA
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Archie Gates wrote: Scary Movie 4: 47m The Wild - 18m
SM3 had the advantage of opening near Halloween. SM4 won't have that but will be offset by slightly higher ticket prices and possibly being a better film, for a net wash. The Wild doesn't have to make very much on Friday to outperform most expectations.
I'd argue The Wild needs a very good Friday because of this particular weekend, where a $6M opening day will mean $13-14M weekend instead of the normal $20-25M for a kid movie.
_________________Recent watched movies: American Hustle - B+ Inside Llewyn Davis - B Before Midnight - A 12 Years a Slave - A- The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - A- My thoughts on box office
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Fri Apr 14, 2006 1:31 am |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm Posts: 25035 Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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BJs Predictions:
1. Scary Movie 4 - 45m
2. Ice Age: The Meltdown - 19m
3. The Wild - 16m
4. The Benchwarmers - 10.4m
5. Take the Lead - 6.9m
6. Inside Man - 4.6m
7. Thank You for Smoking - 4.2m
8. Lucky Number Slevin - 4.0m
9. Failure to Launch - 2.4m
10. V for Vendetta - 1.6m
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Fri Apr 14, 2006 1:39 am |
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The Scottie
King Albert!
Joined: Sun Oct 17, 2004 1:04 pm Posts: 11838 Location: The Happiest City on Earth
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My Predicton.
Scary Movie 4 - 42.5m ($11800 pta)
Ice Age 2 - 18.6m (-45%)
The Wild - 12.8m ($4500 pta)
Benchwarmers - 9.6m (-51%)
Take the Lead - 6.7m (-44%)
Inside Man - 4.9m (-46%)
Thank You For Smoking - 4.4m ($4300 pta)
Lucky Number Slevin - 3.8m (-46%)
Failure to Launch - 2.5m (-39%)
V for Vendetta - 1.7m (-50%)
Top ten - 107.5m
Scary Movie will get a pta slightly lower thanks to Sunday.
Ice Age will lose some people to wild.
The Wild should do Home on the Range like business
Benchwarmers will get killed by Scary Movie 4.
Take the Lead's midweek has been a bit iffy.
Inside Man will drop this much thanks to theater loss.
Thank You For Smoking will still perform well in big cities, but will have trouble in smaller cities.
Lucky Number Sliven will have the normal drop for a thriller.
Failure will drop a bit more thanks to highten competition.
V will suffer thanks to theater loss.
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Fri Apr 14, 2006 3:58 am |
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Chippy
KJ's Leading Pundit
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 4:45 pm Posts: 63026 Location: Tonight... YOU!
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Munky's Derby:
1. Scary Movie 4- $41.1 mil
2. Ice Age: The Meltdown- $18.5 mil
3. The Benchwarmers- $8.9 mil
4. The Wild- $7.4 mil
5. Take the Lead- $6.3 mil
6. Thank You for Smoking- $5.6 mil
7. Inside Man- $4.8 mil
8. Lucky Number Slevin- $3.3 mil
9. Failure to Launch- $2.8 mil
10. V for Vendetta- $1.9 mil
Top 10 Total: $100.6 mil
_________________trixster wrote: shut the fuck up zwackerm, you're out of your fucking element trixster wrote: chippy is correct
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Fri Apr 14, 2006 4:01 am |
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LittleBeaver
Wall-E
Joined: Thu Nov 03, 2005 7:11 pm Posts: 898
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 Just come across..
http://www.bet365.com has a Over/Under 42 million for Scary Movie 4 in there 'specials' section.
That's close to where I see it.
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Fri Apr 14, 2006 4:08 am |
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