Take the Lead - $15.5 million
The Benchwarmes - $11 million
Lucky Number Slevin - $7 million (aptly enough)
Phat Girlz - $4 million

Ice Age 2 - $42 million

Take the Lead $17 mill
The Benchwarmers $13 mill
Phat Girlz $7 mill
Lucky Number Slevin $6 mill

who will win? 05 or 06?

06 will OWN, and the OWNing will continue for the rest of the year, I think 06 will sell mroe tickets than 02

April 7, 2006 /// Top Ten Predictions.

1. ICE AGE: THE MELTDOWN: $39.6 million
2. THE BENCHWARMERS: $21.5 million
3. TAKE THE LEAD: $16.1 million
4. INSIDE MAN: $9.0 million
5. LUCKY NUMBER SLEVIN: $7.8 million
6. ATL: $6.1 million
7. PHAT GIRLZ: $5.2 million
8. FAILURE TO LAUNCH: $4.0 million
9. V FOR VENDETTA: $3.3 million
10. THANK YOU FOR SMOKING: $2.9 million

Hmmmm, not too sure.

Benchwarmers and Take The Lead will be 2 and 3, not sure in which order, with over $12M each.

The Benchwarmers - 13.5 million
Take the Lead - 13 million
Phat Girls - 8 million
Lucky Number Slevin - 6.5 million

Some tracking:



I seriously doubt The Benchwarmers will top $15 million this weekend.

Well, it has been No. 2 on moviefone since this morning, not bad for a PG-13 film. The theater counts so far look decent too.

Slevin has been there today as well, but I think both are on the list because of related articles on the frontpage of Moviefone.

I think Benchwarmers can do that. I think the jokes might attract an audience (people getting beat up, and stuff like bats through windows usually seems to work), but the concept won't really sell it. Still, Dodgeball did well, although on the other hand Fever Pitch didn't.

The new spots for Slevin are really good. I hope I'm not being biased towards it, since it's my type of comedy, but I think it could surprise.

The tracking for Phat Girls and TTL looks right IMO.

It also appeared on Yahoo's most requested list at No. 10 yesterday, but was replaced by Slevin after today's update. The trailer is being downloaded a lot as well. Overall, its online buzz is better than I expected, since it's not as much an Internet geek type of films as Slevin is.

I'm actually thinking about 10-11 mil for Benchwarmers right now. Both Bad News Bears and Fever Pitch had 3100+ theatre counts, and they ended up with $3500 and $3700 PTAs respectively. I don't see why this would perform much different.

OK, worst comparisons ever. Bad News Bears - marketed to a nonexistant market. A PG-13 kid's movie (and not with violence)? Fever Pitch is about baseball, yes, and that's where the similarities end. The Benchwarmers looks like one of the funniest movies in awhile. I think anything under $13 million isn't going to happen.

Bad News Bears wasn't any more of a kids movie than Benchwarmers.

Benchwarmers does not look like the funniest movie in a while. This looks painfully unfunny. It'll do about $11-14 million, but it most likely won't break $15 million.

The Bad News Bears is the first film that comes to mind. That was released in the summer, had similar marketing, a somewhat good lead (though not a big draw), it was related to baseball, and opened in 3000+ theaters. Both target the same audience, imo. The Bad News Bears was not a kids movie in any fashion, and it didn't seem to be marketed as such either.

I saw Bad News Bears on all kids stations (younger siblings). It didn't interest kids because the ads weren't that funny, and the movie was too kiddy for its intended older audience (from what I saw). I just have a feeling that The Benchwarmers will do quite well.

In my opinion, the closest comparison is Without a Paddle. It had similar ads and they both have 3 main stars in them. So it may open to around $14 million like Without a Paddle did.

I just have a feeling that it's going to do better. Bigger stars and a better premise. But movies I have a feeling about rarely perform how I think they will.

Last Holiday
Big Momma’s House-2
Something New


Inside Man
ATL
Phat Girlz


- I think Fat Girlz will be a little better than Something New (FOX Searchlight distributes that sort of movies better than FOCUS).

- Lucky Number Slevin. Europe movie with american stars and good reviews. I'd say a bit lower than Snatch.

- Take the Lead. It's not a profile genre for New Line. So, Save The Last Dance is untouchable. Maybe like Finding Forrester.

- The Benchwarmers. I agree. Between Bad News Bears and Without A Paddle.

I'm pretty sure people said the same thing about The Pink Panther.

I don't know, I could see both The Benchwarmers and Take the Lead performing above 15 million actually. Take the Lead has a solid premise, a lead who can be a draw when the film fits him (such as this one does), and appeal to quite a wide range of audiences. And I think MG's comparison to Without a Paddle is actually pretty good, as that's what the film reminds me of. I'd guess 17 million for Take the Lead, 14 million for The Benchwarmers, 6 million for Lucky Number Slevin (thanks to Weinstein's usual last-minute marketing) and maybe 2-3 million for Phat Girlz.

BTW, someone posted the ReelSource tracking at HSX last night...:



Wow for Scary Movie 4! It jumped up big time from $40 million last week.

Agreed on the buzz. It's been popping up on the Yahoo Buzz Chart a lot lately, and a lot of people are talking about it. It'll be another hit for the franchise, not a miss like the second part. PG-13 will help, of course.

Also, nice to see Silent Hill at $18 million.

A part of me worries that the Scary Movie series will never end if this one is successful.

And this is coming from someone who doesn't even mind the movies.

Theater Counts from BOM:

The Benchwarmers 3,274
Phat Girlz 1,056