superman returns predictons
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tina_als_girl
Cream of the Crop
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Location: Wellsville, MO
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Man, PotC2's probably gonna have a full theatrical trailer out before SR, and it comes out a week after. PotC2's will probably be with Disney's The Wild on April 14 (I don't know that for *sure*, but it seems the most likely movie for it to premiere with; Cars will probably have it, too, but not premiere it--that's FAR too close to the opening date). That's a whole month before SR's is set to come out.
They're really testing fate with putting out SR stuff so late in the game.
Joy
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| Wed Mar 29, 2006 8:24 pm |
 
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El Maskado
Arrrrrrrrrrgggghhhhhhhhhh!
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 8:17 pm
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excel wrote: Dr. Lecter wrote: They are blowing their chances at promotion. A new trailer should have been released long time ago and it just ins't coming. Last minute marketing blitz will help, but this film won't be huge. yet it worked great for episode 3. Yet when you compare the BO receipts for the first 3 SW movies, they completely blow away Superman 1's figures
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| Wed Mar 29, 2006 8:33 pm |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
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Location: Bonn, Germany
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excel wrote: Dr. Lecter wrote: They are blowing their chances at promotion. A new trailer should have been released long time ago and it just ins't coming. Last minute marketing blitz will help, but this film won't be huge. yet it worked great for episode 3. Um...Superman is NOT Star Wars. PERIOD. No comparison. The last Star Wars movie would have broken $300 million even if its trailer consisited of footage of Ewan McGregor eating a hamburger. _________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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| Wed Mar 29, 2006 8:35 pm |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
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Location: Bonn, Germany
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tina_als_girl wrote: Man, PotC2's probably gonna have a full theatrical trailer out before SR, and it comes out a week after. PotC2's will probably be with Disney's The Wild on April 14 (I don't know that for *sure*, but it seems the most likely movie for it to premiere with; Cars will probably have it, too, but not premiere it--that's FAR too close to the opening date). That's a whole month before SR's is set to come out.
They're really testing fate with putting out SR stuff so late in the game.
Joy Things is that people are mostly satisfied with the current POTC2 teaser while the reception for the Superman Returns teaser was rather mixed. _________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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| Wed Mar 29, 2006 8:36 pm |
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zingy
College Boy Z
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:40 pm
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 excel wrote: Dr. Lecter wrote: They are blowing their chances at promotion. A new trailer should have been released long time ago and it just ins't coming. Last minute marketing blitz will help, but this film won't be huge. yet it worked great for episode 3. Do you not realize that Sith is still a horrible comparison?
Superman
[table][row] Title[col] Opening[col] Total[row]Superman[col]$7,465,343 [col]$134,218,018 [row]Superman II[col]$14,100,523 [col]$108,185,706 [row]Superman III[col]$13,352,357 [col]$59,950,623 [row]Superman IV[col]$5,683,122 [col]$15,681,020 [/table]
Star Wars
[table][row] Title[col] Opening[col] Total[row]A New Hope[col]$1,554,475 [col]$460,998,007 [row]The Empire Strikes Back[col]$4,910,483 [col]$290,475,067 [row]Return of the Jedi[col]$23,019,618 [col]$309,306,177 [row]The Phantom Menace[col]$64,820,970 [col]$431,088,301 [row]Attack of the Clones[col]$80,027,814 [col]$310,676,740 [row]Revenge of the Sith[col]$108,435,841 [col]$380,270,577 [/table]
Let's get real here. Superman films aren't even in the same league. All the Star Wars movies have made over $300 million in the box-office unadjusted.
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| Wed Mar 29, 2006 9:31 pm |
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Malcolm
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I have to say something, as this bothers me a lot.
Don't just list 461mil next to Star Wars like it made all that in one shot. Nearly 150mil of that is from rereleases, and either they shouldn't be counted or it should be acknowledged that it's from rereleases. Also, ESB made 209mil in its initial run and ROTJ made 252mil in its initial run. I just hate that people count the numerous rereleases into the total and never say anything.
Also, superman returns will be lucky to get to 200mil.
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| Wed Mar 29, 2006 9:46 pm |
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zingy
College Boy Z
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:40 pm
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Star Wars: A New Hope is really the only one that had a significant boost in gross from the re-release, but fair enough. Even without the re-release, none of the Star Wars movies made less than $200 million.
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| Wed Mar 29, 2006 9:48 pm |
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Excel
Superfreak
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Dr. Lecter wrote: excel wrote: Dr. Lecter wrote: They are blowing their chances at promotion. A new trailer should have been released long time ago and it just ins't coming. Last minute marketing blitz will help, but this film won't be huge. yet it worked great for episode 3. Um...Superman is NOT Star Wars. PERIOD. No comparison. The last Star Wars movie would have broken $300 million even if its trailer consisited of footage of Ewan McGregor eating a hamburger. Actually theres a pretty solid comparison, not just t the box office as both were the flagship movies into special effcts (ok, star wars was the biggest movie all time as of 1978, superman was the fifth biggest, i guess there really is no comparison) but both have international fanbases. similar size, its just star wars fanbase is much more dedicated. Their extremely similar in appeal, and with star wars out of the way superman franchise will be the big toy-merchandise franchise of the new millenium. Some people here seriously just dont understand how big of a character he is. just today on espn-today- i saw nfl highlights-super bowl 1976-the defense of one of the teams "dressed as superman " before the game for thr press, and "then went on to play like him". the character superman is more engraved in our culture then star wars ever will be simply because of old and iconic he is. not as big or popular, but nobodys saying superman returns will top 350 million. and lets face it, had episode 2 not sucked so badly, episode 3 woulda blown by 400 million easy. i mean episode one inflated is 540 million whil episode 2 inflated is an incredibly low 340 million with episode 3 clocking in at 380. in comparison episodes 3's gross is not impressive, considering how muchj of an improvement episode 3 is on episodes 1 and 2.
its not even just star wars, the late huge push has worked for tons of big films. narnia, spiderman, x1 and x2, bruce almighty, day after tomorrow.
to sum up, anybody who sees 250 million or more as out of the question is smoking some very bad weed.
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| Wed Mar 29, 2006 10:03 pm |
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zingy
College Boy Z
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:40 pm
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I don't see $250 million as out of the question. It's entirely possible. But anyone thinking that $350 million will happen is apparently smoking that very bad weed as well.
But, sorry, Star Wars is not a good comparison at all. This is the millionth time you've mentioned Superman's "iconic" popularity, but only the first two Superman films showed it. We're in 2006 now, and his popularity has decreased signifcantly in the last 20 years. If you still believe he's as popular as ever, I don't know what to say. He's still popular, and obviously, this film will do good business. But please, for the love of God, stop comparing it to Star Wars. Even with adjusted figures (which we shouldn't really use, but for this purpose, I will), every single Star Wars flick as outgrossed Superman, whether in 1979 or 2005.
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| Wed Mar 29, 2006 10:14 pm |
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Excel
Superfreak
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wel then yes i agree...350 is probably this films tip top max. but sinc when is 250 million not huge? and yes his two films showed, but theres reall ynot much evidence his popularity has decreased. as far as i know, everything superman-related in the last 10 years been well recieved. lois and clark, tas, smallville are the big 3 and all were big when the arrived, i dont see why returns would be any different. and he is iconic, i hear a superman reference atleast once a day, like a he played superman, ect. i never hear he played like spiderman, or he played like han solo. superman as a character is extremely idealistic, hence why he appeals to so many kids.
and as far as the star wars comparison goes, when have i ever compared them as films or box office predicts? i just said that the late push worked well for episode 3 and it could work well for superman.
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| Wed Mar 29, 2006 10:30 pm |
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zingy
College Boy Z
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You're right. You didn't compare box-office, but you still can't use Sith as a comparison because whether Sith had a early marketing push or late marketing push, it would have done well no matter what. As long as there was awareness.
And, yes, $250 million is excellent for Superman Returns.
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| Wed Mar 29, 2006 10:34 pm |
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STEVE ROGERS
The Greatest Avenger EVER
Joined: Fri Oct 29, 2004 4:02 am
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Zingaling wrote: I don't see $250 million as out of the question. It's entirely possible. But anyone thinking that $350 million will happen is apparently smoking that very bad weed as well.
But, sorry, Star Wars is not a good comparison at all. This is the millionth time you've mentioned Superman's "iconic" popularity, but only the first two Superman films showed it. We're in 2006 now, and his popularity has decreased signifcantly in the last 20 years. If you still believe he's as popular as ever, I don't know what to say. He's still popular, and obviously, this film will do good business. But please, for the love of God, stop comparing it to Star Wars. Even with adjusted figures (which we shouldn't really use, but for this purpose, I will), every single Star Wars flick as outgrossed Superman, whether in 1979 or 2005. 
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| Thu Mar 30, 2006 12:30 am |
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zingy
College Boy Z
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http://www.comingsoon.net/news/movienews.php?id=13886
Quote: IMAX Corporation and Warner Bros. Pictures today announced that Superman Returns, directed by Bryan Singer, will become the world's first live-action Hollywood feature to be converted from 2D to IMAX® 3D. IMAX Corporation will use its proprietary 2D to 3D conversion technology to convert approximately 20 minutes of the film into An IMAX 3D Experience®, the most immersive cinematic 3D in the world.
"Releasing select sequences of 'Superman Returns' in IMAX 3D marks a groundbreaking moment in movies," said Dan Fellman, President of Domestic Distribution at Warner Bros. Pictures. "This film is going to give fans an opportunity to be immersed in a major live-action motion picture like never before."
The epic action-adventure directed by Bryan Singer ("X-Men," The Usual Suspects), will be transformed into the unparalleled image and sound quality of The IMAX Experience® through IMAX DMR® (Digital Re-Mastering) technology. The film will be simultaneously released to IMAX® and conventional theatres on June 30, 2006. Warner Bros. Pictures will be the exclusive distributor of the film to the growing IMAX theatre network worldwide.
"The test scenes that have been converted into IMAX 3D look, sound and feel absolutely amazing," added Bryan Singer, director of Superman Returns. "The magic of IMAX 3D will envelop audiences in this story, enabling them to feel the emotion, drama and suspense in a completely new and unique way."
During select sequences of the film, a visual cue designed by Singer will indicate when audiences should put on and remove their IMAX 3D glasses.
"We are delighted to partner with pioneering visionaries Bryan Singer and Warner Bros. Pictures to transform part of this highly anticipated release into An IMAX 3D Experience," said IMAX Co-Chairmen and Co-CEOs Richard L. Gelfond and Bradley J. Wechsler. "Today's announcement is a culmination of a great film, a great filmmaker, a great studio, and great technology - all working together to produce the most powerful and immersive cinematic experience available to moviegoers worldwide."
"Five out of the seven films in our 2006 line up now feature IMAX 3D," said Greg Foster, Chairman and President of IMAX Filmed Entertainment. "We are thrilled that moviegoers will be able to experience Bryan Singer's unique and exhilarating vision. Through the magic of IMAX 3D, they will feel as if they are actually flying alongside the man of steel, weaving in and out of Metropolis."
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| Thu Mar 30, 2006 5:46 pm |
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Joker's Thug #3
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I'd go see that.
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| Thu Mar 30, 2006 5:50 pm |
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Excel
Superfreak
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yea...thatll help its legs atleast a little bit. what do some people guess the multiplier will be?
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| Thu Mar 30, 2006 9:23 pm |
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DP07
The Thirteenth Floor
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excel wrote: yea...thatll help its legs atleast a little bit. what do some people guess the multiplier will be? 2.7
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| Thu Mar 30, 2006 9:24 pm |
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Excel
Superfreak
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i dont think tis first week wil be that much percnt of its total...its late legs-the weekends after its second weekend-shoul dhave fine 50% or less drops.
i see a 90 million 3 day, 130 5 day and 150 7 day en route to a 325 total, which would be a multiplier of 3.5 which is what i think itll get. the kids and imax wil help it, also its weekend ISNT as high as it would normally be due to monday and tuesday holidays, yet its box office total is HIGHER then normal due to inflated week days in its first week. lower weekend-higher total=higher multiplier.
for weekly 150 is 46% which isnt bad.
325 u.s./400 + over seas=700 million + worldwide total, which would be fucking huge cause add in this film will rake in BILLIONS from merchandise toy sales, video game sales, dvd sales, and endorsment sales. i mean w.b. will be making money off every pepsi, burger king, ect. product sold. every time somebody rents/buys the already highly advertised video game, buys one of the 2 sound tracks, or some kid buys one of the 100s of toys...
superman as a whole is going to be warner prime cash cow post summer 06. bigger then potter.
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| Thu Mar 30, 2006 10:54 pm |
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Excel
Superfreak
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Zingaling wrote: You're right. You didn't compare box-office, but you still can't use Sith as a comparison because whether Sith had a early marketing push or late marketing push, it would have done well no matter what. As long as there was awareness.
And, yes, $250 million is excellent for Superman Returns. true, but i mean no way would its thursday have been 50 million-20 million more then episode 2s just 3 years ago-without it. episode 2 rose 3 million more from episode 1s opening day, but most blamed it on poor word of mouth. what do you plame the 20 million increase onthen, cause episoid 2s word of mouth was horrible.
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| Thu Mar 30, 2006 10:56 pm |
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Excel
Superfreak
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what do you give it s 5 day?
and 100/325...i like it. same as me
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| Fri Apr 07, 2006 6:41 pm |
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Rev
Romosexual!
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 HELLZ YEAH!!
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| Fri Apr 07, 2006 8:50 pm |
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Jonathan
Begging Naked
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So anyway, I thought it'd be a fun read to read the whole thread, but before I get to the end, there were two things I'd like to point out:
excel wrote: nobody thought nemo would beat matrix reloaded.
nobody though pirates would beat t3
nobody thought shrek would beat mummy returns
nopbody though men in black would beat lost world
nobody thought spiderman would beat attack of the clones
nobody thinks superman will beat pirates 2. Nemo, Pirates, MIB and Shrek didn't have any big fanbases going in, so of course people were predicting the other films to do better. And Spider-Man's breakout was an anomaly (And no, Supes isn't going to be another one). And I just found this pretty funny: Magnus101 wrote: Here is an unoffical promo release for Superman Returns. None of this is 100% accurate I think, however if only half of it is true, trust me this will cross 250m and 275m easily.
-January 2006:
*Teaser trialer #2 airs with GLORY ROAD.
-February 2006:
*Televised trailer with SUPER BOWL(U.S.)
*Tie in with Winter Olympics in Torino, Italy
*Teaser Poster #2 and Cinema Cardboard cutout of Superman Returns official logo in cinemas across the World
-March 2006:
*4 Televised trailers air with NCAA basketball playoffs
*Theatrical Trailer #1 airs with ICE AGE 2: THE MELDOWN WELL. 
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| Fri Apr 07, 2006 9:20 pm |
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zingy
College Boy Z
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:40 pm
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Yeah, I pointed out a while back that the "marketing schedule" was crap. excel's arguement was so dependent on that schedule before, saying that marketing was starting early, but now, "late marketing" is excellent for him.
And it's not really Coming Soon's fault that WB provided them bad information and can't make their own deadlines. It's not like Coming Soon pulled that schedule out of thin air.
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| Fri Apr 07, 2006 9:29 pm |
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Jonathan
Begging Naked
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SO.
After bailing out of this around Page 15, I have collected my thoughts on the film. Some of them overlap, but whatever:
1. The problem facing Superman is that he's more of a simple iconic figure then a movie star. Everyone knows who he is, yes, but everyone also knows who Mickey Mouse is, so wouldn't that mean that a big Mickey Mouse movie could make $300M? Of course not.
2. Comparing the adjusted grosses of Batman and Superman is valid, because both were released at times when the best alternate choice was a scratchy VHS. I think it shows that Batman has always a bigger MOVIE STAR then Superman.
3. Unlike say, Star Wars, people have had a steady diet of Superman since the fourth movie, with THREE TV shows (Lois and Clark, The Animated Series and Smallville). Its not people are like "GIMME SOME NEW SUPES, PLEEEEEASE!!!!!!!!" Batman didn't have much other then Gotham Knights, which aired with Superman.
4. It won't overcome Pirates 2. It comes out the following week and is a budding franchise starring arguably the biggest new character of the new century, Captain Jack Sparrow. Just about everyone knows, and loves, Jack. And unlike Superman, we haven't seen him in anything else since the last movie, so people want the chance to see him again. Want Superman? Flip to The WB on Thursdays at 8 and get him for free.
Final thoughts: Despite sane predictions from Zing, Lecter, Roid et. al, this will probably take the title as the most overpredicted film of 2006.
Opening: 69.2
Total: 201.5 (2.91)
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| Fri Apr 07, 2006 9:50 pm |
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HiltonLohan2005
Speed Racer
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i'm going out on a limb here and just guessing at this point. its about time that i wrote some of my thoughts on paper and this is the first one
91/341
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| Fri Apr 07, 2006 10:18 pm |
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Jonathan
Begging Naked
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Magnus101 wrote: A. Its opening weekend multiplier will be above 3.0 at least. Now, that is not saying it will get good legs. Its opening week may be 51-52% of its total(which is so-so legs), but with a 69.2 OW, you're looking at a opening week in the 110m-120m range, so a total in the 215m-235m range. Interesting Fact: the last four major Fourth of July openers (WOTW, S-M2, T3, MIIB) all had opening weeks that made up more then 50% of their totals. Supes Friday opening could keep that from happening, but I'm pretty confident that legs will be cut short by Pirates. Magnus101 wrote: B. Superman iconic status in America is something where people would love to see him on the big-screen because its somehting special to see a "real" live Superman. I mean, seeing a Superman fly around, smash things up, and save the day on comic-books is nice and all, but to see it on the big screen(with tons of F/X) is something special. And they have four movies they can do that with already. So? Magnus101 wrote: C. While Batman has been the bigger movie star, the latest Batman film was one that was too dark(well, it was marketed as too dark though honestly the film has tons of mainstream appeal if you actually see it) for mainstream. SR won't be marketed like that. ALL the Batman movies have been dark (Well, except the last two, but look at THEIR recaption). Roger Ebert's review of Batman Retunrs criticized it for being so grim, yet it still broke records. Magnus101 wrote: D. The TV shows just show how much of Superman popularity. And Smallville is nothing like the iconic Superman people know of. But the medium of TV is almost entirely free, after you get past actually buying one. Will those people that watch the shows be willing to pay $8 to see it on the big screen? Magnus101 wrote: E. Of course it won't overcome POTC2. But just like in May 2002, we will have two films in July 2006 gross near 700m. S-M2 had two weeks to breath, not to mention the biggest weekend of the year the week after ATOC. SR has one, and no holidays for two months. Not the best comparision.
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| Fri Apr 07, 2006 10:38 pm |
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