Some of you are INCREIBLY crazy. This looks like a great adult thriller and should be the big adult movie of the summer but it's not attracting anyon else. If it happens to be a really good movie it should be able to do over 200m because it's opening wont be that big, but 300m+ is never happening.

Im just gonna pretend that this movie will be great considering the talent involved and from what I saw from the trailer, so for now.....

Opening - 58m
Final - 205m

You can pretty much count out the audience who went to see Mel Gibson's Passion of Christ - so, I don't see it doing mega domestic #'s - let's say 38/155...

You're letting your biblical bias get in the way of your judgment. And why avoid it? This film is going to be the big one of the summer.

75/275

I think this has a chance to gross 300 mill. I think this is the one film that has a big enough following this summer to bring everyone in. This book is talked about everywhere and it still isn't in paperback yet because it's still selling so well.

Depends on how much hype there is. If it opens with an average amount of fanfare I'd agree with Zing's prediction. However, it's hard to deny that there isn't a good chance that this will have a huge amount of hype and controversy. If it crosses over to getting promotion in general news sources too, then I think it'll attract that untapped potential audience who very rarely goes to the movies. If so, I'd give it 88/280, although really that's just a shot in the dark.

I'm surprised to find myself feeling this way because I've liked many of his movies but, based on the trailers, Tom Hanks appears to be the weakest link in the film. Charmless and with a very ugly haircut, I don't think he's going to help this movie as much as they are hoping.

It will probably have a good solid opening like 40-50m, and then play well over the summer ending up at around 160-175m.

I've read the novel, and the book is 80% talking and exposition, it is not anything like as action oriented as the trailers would make you believe. You see most of the action in the trailer, the rest is just a whole lot of talking. Not that controversial either. Dan Brown basically writes the type of novel that is light fun and perfect to read on a plane trip. Like Michael Crichton. He's basically a Crichton clone but replace the techno talk with religious and history talk.

What we have here are two very appealing performers, Hanks and Tatou, who just don't look like they will be charming or appealing in this film. So it is left up to the material, the book, and with so many people having already read it, it will hold little mystery and curiousity for most viewers.

Like moviedude said though, the level of hype as we get closer could change things. If it becomes one of those wall to wall hype periods like happened with Matrix Revolutions, then it might do better.

Say what you will about Ron Howard's films, but when was the last time the lead character in one of his films was the weak link? And this is Tom Hanks we're talking about. You may be right as you've read the book and know the character, but I'd guess that the lack of charm the two leads seem to be displaying should be blamed on the trailers for not focusing on them more then anything else... which really isn't a very good thing, come to think of it. And I wouldn't worry too much about the film just being talking heads either. I wouldn't be surprised if it was rather liberal with some changes for the sake of pacing and whatnot.

How often do high book sales translate to big BO?

JAWS
The FIRM
JURRASSIC PARK
THE BIBLE


I know what you're getting at but just because there have been some big books that have underwhelmed at the box office, they are duifferent. There is controversy behind this one. There will be religious loonies that will inadvertently attract attentio to the film by publically boycotting it. This will do more to create hype in the film than damage the chances. I think thi sis one of the easiest films to predict. It will easily sail past 200 mill, and even have a chance at 300.

42/165

More or less.

Loonies.

bump

Now over 40 million in book sales. This isn't just some big book. I don't see how that can even be near National Treasure.

I'm pretty sure it will open over 80m, but I don't think it will reach a multiplier of 3.5. Hype and marketing will be too great and the fanbase will generally see it early.

Isn't it 40 million books worldwide? Even if it's not, and 40 million people saw The Da Vinci Code in theaters, that's still $260 million total. I don't see where $300 million, or even $400 million, is coming from.

From lazyasses like me who have never read the book, but'll see the movie anyway, and people too cheap to buy the book and simply borrow it from someone.

Anyway.

Opening: 76.4
Total: 271.2 (3.55)

i think it'll open soft but have long legs with the total maxing at $250 million

There is no way this film opens "softly". This is going to be a huge opening. This is a movie that almost everyone is interested in.

I guess I'll modify my predictions and time goes by and hype gets much larger.

Now, I see around $60 million opening with around $210-220 million finish.
I upped my prediction because the Memorial weekend is going to help this alot. It will do not only great spill-over business from X3 but this will be great counter-programming to all the adults who are not into the comic-book thing.

A) Harry Potter isn't much higher (+300 million for 6 books). Plus, compare that to HP when the first movie came out with +110m for 4 books. If anything TDVC is bigger. The first Harry Potter book has sold "only" about 17 million in the US, although I didn't find anything on how many of those were before the first movie in 2001. I would think it has sold quite a few copies in the last 52 months.
B) I suspect that The Da Vinci Code has a higher percentage in the US. British sales of TDVC are over 4m, but for HP it tends to be a higher percentage.
C) As Jon said, more people have read it then bought it.
D) Again people who never read it will see it just because of hype or because they think it looks good.
E) Fans will get others who have not read the book to see it with them.

It might been be quite a bit higher then 40m. It was near 40m late last year. I found one recent article saying 43m, however it's selling over 2m a month, so even that likely isn't entirely up to date. The paperback is being released with a printing of 5m (BTW, the first HP book had 2m initially for paperback). So, by the release date quite a few more people will have read it.

It's destroyed the record for a hardcover. The old one was 6m.

If you use the same calculations that you did for TDVC then the first HP shouldn't have been anywhere near 317m. I think anything under 250m is highly unlikely for this. In fact, the more I think of it even 250m seems a bit silly. This could very well be another Passion.

Yeah, even though the multiplier will be above 3.3 I think there is a small chance it could take the opening weekend record. I don't think we could say how big it might be, but I'm confident that the predictions under 200m are impossible.

The court case going on now is only helping this film's buzz. Also, those 40 m + sold are JUST in the past three years. The Da Vinci Code feels like its been around for much longer based on how talked about it is, but it was only released three years ago. It hasn't even reached its peak yet. The paperback version has been greatly anticipated, and this film has so much going for it. Even two months before its release its getting to be front page news each day w/ a swirl of controversy around it, and the cast hasn't even really gotten into the publicity rounds yet. This is essentially water cooler talk, and has been for quite some time. But alot of people haven't had time to read this yet, and a movie offers a quick alternative. Internationally this will be huge as well. Hanks just has tremendous pull (international $'s saved the Terminal, w/ it doing 81% better worldwide). This could be the most talked about film of the summer.

DP, I'm pretty sure the 40M figure is worldwide. The last figure I heard for the U.S. was 12M in print at the end of last year. Not that the figure is anything to sneeze at.

I guess I should explain myself more about Tom. I like him, and I appreciate his trying to stretch as an actor, but at the same time the public doesn't always respond well to that. I'm reminded of in the early 90s Harrison Ford starred in a film version of a popular novel of that era (Presumed Innocent), and sported a terrible haircut and wooden performance. It just didn't go down well. And that was at around the height of his popularity.

This won't bomb like that did though of course, there's more talent involved and the book is bigger. I'm just saying sometimes people can make tactical mistakes, wrong choices, when putting together a film and that's how this looks to me.

[quote="Archie Gates"]I've read the novel, and the book is 80% talking and exposition, it is not anything like as action oriented as the trailers would make you believe. You see most of the action in the trailer, the rest is just a whole lot of talking. Not that controversial either. Dan Brown basically writes the type of novel that is light fun and perfect to read on a plane trip. Like Michael Crichton. He's basically a Crichton clone but replace the techno talk with religious and history talk.




Um, dude, Crichton wrote Jurassic Park.

I see huge numbers: 75 million opening, 285 million total(legs will be great.) Thing could go much higher too, a 300 million or a Passion run as DP07 said is not impossible.

Da Vinci Code is not out of the sweepstakes for #1 of the year.

Yeah I know, dude. So? Most of Crichton's novels translated to screen did mediocre business, and there have been plenty of them. JP was just one of many and it was the least faithful translation of his books. Spielberg basically (and has admitted this) took a few high points from the book and made it his own story.