under predictions, the whole lot of them and that formula sucks

that formula is crap as well

You gotta admit. Realism sucks.

Pirates 2 > Shrek 2.

Count on it.

You bet I am.

I would love for that to happen. Pirates of the Caribbean is better than either of the Shrek movies.

Indeed, Pirates 2 is so going to OWN Shrek 2 in quality and in BO

500m+

its not realism , its all flat out under predicting.

supes n da vinci will get more th then, happy feet around that maybe more cause of holidays, pirates will get less.

Superman Returns will do no more then King Kong. I'd say a good $50 million less though.

I dont see how it would pull in less than 250m, even with Pirates on the move crushing everything in its path.

2006 should fall behind 2004 by the time march 1st numbers are released due to the huge 2004 surge brought on by the Passion.

This weekend will get decimated by 2004 and also 2005.

In 05 The Pacifier, Be Cool and Hitch combined to make $65m
In 04 Passion, Starsky and Hutch and Hidalgo combined to make a whopping $100m!!!!

The most I can see the top 3 making this week would be $45-$50m

sorry for lack of Updates, I was out of town for a while...

looks like we will definately be down this weekend, but things should pick up for the remainder of the month and then explode with the release of Ice Age, bring us into a strong April and very strong May.

I actually don't see 2006 improving all that much on 2005 overall for the year. April, May, Aug, Oct, Nov I think will be stronger, but not so sure about March, June, July (POTC 2 will be big, but some of the other product is questionable), Sept, and December I'm not 100% sure about. I see 2006 as a transition year, just like 2000-2002, with 2001. 2000 was a weak year coming off of 1999, 2001 was a dramatically different market, and 2002 was a huge huge year. It's the same case now I think, with lots of big openings (ex. POTC 2, Ice Age 2, X3, Da Vinci Code, Superman, etc), but overall 2007 will be the monster year, with possibly 3-4 $400 m grossers possible.

Perhaps.. but you don't necessarily need 400 million grosses to have a huge year... and there are a lot of potential 200 million + films this year...
Last year there were 8... I think we have a chance to do more than that this year;

Ice Age
Mission Impossible III
The Da Vinci Code
Over the Hedge
X-Men 3
Cars
Superman Returns
Pariates of the Carribean: Dead Man's Chest
Happy Feet
Eragon

These are all strong possibilities, and there's always the chance a few films will surprise.. it's still far too early to tell, but I think we should have a good year this year...

Well I'm not judging by how many $400 m films we get, but I just mean that 2007 is very high octane. 2005 had Narnia vs Kong, I'm not sure if Eragon can keep that pace up. Just examples like that. But 2007 is all around shaping up to be a very strong year.

Jan: Are We There Yet II
Feb: Rocky 6, Ghost Rider
Mar: Meet The Robinsons
May: POTC 3, Shrek 3, Spiderman 3, Used Guys (Perhaps this is the biggest month ever for box office if it does follow through.
June: Ratouille, Evan Almighty
July: Fantastic Four/Transformers (likely will get one of the big May films)
Aug: Rush Hour 3
Nov: Bee Movie, Beowolf, HP5
Dec: Narnia

TBA: IJ4, Foodfight.

There are multiple possible $250 m films in this group including: POTC 3, Shrek 3, Spiderman 3, Ratouille, Rush Hour 3, Narnia, HP5, Used Guys, IJ4 (9), and 2007 is hardly close to having the full slate of films that it will have.

Including this weekend, 2 weekends so far out of 10 where the top 10 has been or will be over 2005, and 8 where we've been under. Not looking good so far. March and April look like they may not be able to keep up with 2005's already slow pace, so the downturn shouldn't change all that much give or take a few weekends, until the first weekend of May unfortunately...

Luckily though, alot of the down weekends are not as down as much as 2005 was under 2004, so there's still room to grow, and it wont be as difficult as it was for 2005 to repair the poor first half of the year. A strong, strong May could help matters, but it is NOT good for the industry to be in yet another semi-slump. But like I said in the 2007 box office thread, 2007 really is the "moviegoer" year, and so even if 2006 is dismal, things could be back to normal soon enough...

I dont think its all that bad considering

On paper March never looked as good as last year. April should be a bit better. Dont forget that even though Ring 2 underperformed and in some ways so too did Robots - last year's March was in no slump, nor was April (TPOTC difference from 04). If anything it was 2004 in a slump until TPOTC came along.

Granted I think we can lay blame on Shaggy Dog for underperforming by a good $10m this weekend. Failure Launch countered that but Hills seems to be suffering from the glut of horror product even if it may be superior to previos efforts.

April 06 - hmmm Im still not convinced. It bookended by two big films IMO - Ice Age 2 and United 93. But alot of the product in between is hit or miss - Benchwarmers, Silent Hill, Sentinal and Scary Movie 4.

But looking at the schedules and the next two weeks look like they can defeat 2005.

May will help things greatly - but like you I dont expect any major gains in 2006. Its just a transition year - likely to be even with last year of a few percent above. The key will be how big summer films like Da Vinci Code, Cars, Superman Returns and World Trade Centre can be. IMO these are the 4 pivotal films of 2006. They can combine to make around $500-$700 or go way over $1 billion.

2007 offcourse is THE big box office year.

I think we'll stay behind 2005 for the rest of March, but I have a feeling April could be a record month. You have Ice Age 2 (Only its opening day falls in March), Scary Movie 4, Sentinel, Silent Hill and United 93. With that, and the fact that M:I3 will make almost as much in its opening weekend then the entire Top 12 did in 2005 ($78.5M), May will leapfrog over 2005, and we should stay well above 2005 for the rest of the year.

I don't think we'll be able to match Dec. though for sure. The Kong/Narnia combo was just too strong...

I disagree. Scary movie 4 will make pennies. People are tired of that franchise, and date movie just came out. United 93 will make pennies. Most people refuse to see anything "serious" as far as movies go, this is aside from quality. If United is gets weak reviews, it not only won't make pennies, it will end up owing audiences money (somehow).

Only Ice Age 2 looks to make big money next month as far as I'm concerned, and that will only even out the Hitch score from last year. This is the first year where we didn't have a Valentine Day romance near 100 million. We're going to have to wait until May as far as I'm concerned. This year looks mighty weak thus far. I have to say, its either the DVD thing, or people really are getting tired of direct reference movies (Date/Scary Movie, etc).

All of this is of no worry. Unfortunately (incredibly so) Apocalypto will pull a 300 million Passion, and pitted against Da Vinci (as far as viewers are concerned) we're looking at two near 300 million movies right there. Add X-Men and especially Pirates, and there should be quite a fight for the top. Just below will still be a slew of 200 million movies like MI and Superman, but we have yet to see if the "Oscar" autumn will produce big movies or 40 million grossers like this year. I'm guessing there will be much more box office activity with Scorsese in the mix though.

Here are the Top 5 movies from last April:

1. Sin City - $74.1M
2. The Inperpreter - $72.7M
3. Sahara - $68.7M
4. The Amityville Horror - $65.2M
5. The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy - $51.1M

Ice Age should easily make the amount of the Top 3 movies combined, while Scary Movie 4 will easily pass TAH. And United 93 isn't just some "serious movie," but the first 9/11 to get a wide release. It should easily build off of that buzz to have a big opening (But bad legs). Then there's Silent Hill and THe Sentinal all opening the same week. If its not a record April (Which I'm willing to bet it will be), it should still easily beat last year.

But there's no way Apocalypto is getting within sniffing distance of $300M, or even $100M. TPOTC at least had born-again Christians flocking to it. What does this have, Mayan History majors?

That's like saying history majors flocked to End of the Spear! I'd venture Mayan History majors are going to be the last people to set foot in that theatre. Same people that went to Passion will go see this "One man isn't willing to let pagan rituals ruin his faith." Remember the tagline is something along the lines of "Great empires aren't ruined from without, they are torn apart from within...blah blah blah" Gibson is just subtle about it. He'll get his usual fans plus the people who get hoodwinked into thinking its a Mayan History lesson.

You think Scary Movie 4 is going to beat 65 million? I don't think it'll reach 50, just like Date Movie. And buzz or no buzz, no one is going to watch a 9/11 movie, especially by the guy who did Bloody Sunday. People will be mad if he sneaks a political agenda into the deaths of a planeful of people (which he should do, if he's smart). People will be mad if he doesn't and just makes the flight into some typical "memorial." Either way, it won't reach 50 either.

Ice Age two will make alot, I'm not argueing on that. If its in the opening or in the legs (which will boost may more than April) is anyone's guess. I have no idea about Sentinel and and SIlent Hill, hence your arguement is probably right, and I won't comment on them. Still, that makes 3 plus50 million movies, not 5.

hm.......