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 superman returns predictons 
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College Boy Z

Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:40 pm
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Online people might have low expectations, but you don't know about the general audience's expectations.

And, we'll see if this "big June push" happens, because even the schedule you posted earlier didn't have accurate dates and all, so I have no faith in that. I'll see when the marketing push happens, and how big it is.


Sat Mar 04, 2006 3:25 pm
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Superfreak
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i dont buy that any more. everythings been off, though kelly clarkson supposabyl doeshave a music video for this.

bu id assume that because thers not much now that wel get a lot later. or w.b. wont promote this at all. but i think the first is more likely to happen.

and if the public doesnt have low expectations,but the higher the public expectations,the bigger the hype would be.


Sat Mar 04, 2006 3:27 pm
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College Boy Z

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I didn't say that the public had low expectations. I said we don't know. So far, though, the reactions to the teaser haven't been good. That's all we do know.


Sat Mar 04, 2006 3:30 pm
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If people have low expectations why would everyone wanna go rush to see it then? Everyones mind set will be, well I think this will suck but i'll waste my time to see it anyways, right?

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Last edited by Joker's Thug #3 on Sat Mar 04, 2006 3:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.



Sat Mar 04, 2006 3:30 pm
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Now what does some cheesy American Idol singer have to do with selling tickets to a movie???????


Sat Mar 04, 2006 3:31 pm
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Extraordinary
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Sad Clown wrote:
Now what does some cheesy American Idol singer have to do with selling tickets to a movie???????


Well it's smart no matter how you look at it, it's more exposure. I remember Green Day was suppose to do something with BB but that never happened and it would've been good to get the movie out there as much as possible. Looks like they're gonna push the movie in a romance type of way, since it's Kelly Clarkson doing the song, dont know how appealing that will be to it's main demo though.

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Sat Mar 04, 2006 3:32 pm
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Superfreak
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Killuminati510 wrote:
If people have low expectations why would everyone wanna go rush to see it then? Everyones mind set will be, well I think this will suck but i'll waste my time to see it anyways, right?


lol not that low...theyll rush and see it cause of actionandromance,i just think itll be a it deeper emotioaly then they think it will be.

as kelly clarkson, it hasnt been confirmed. its just that at fox studios in sydney superman returns used every single set house from febuary through october, and clarkson shot anewmusic video in one of these houses and is the biggest female artist around right now with hit after hit.


Sat Mar 04, 2006 3:35 pm
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Lord of filth

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excel wrote:
no im just a fan. superman at bom is obsessed.

Then I'd hate to see what "mildly interested" means.

Quote:
http://www.bluetights.net/bulletin_list.php
blog number20. while your there, check out number 17.

All unimpressive. There's no flying here that we didn't see in previous episodes or digitally in the Matrix movies.

Quote:
no it didnt. holywood reporter reported 1400 shots on more then one occasion.

This is a pissing contest you aren't going to win, so back down now.
http://www.apple.com/hotnews/articles/2005/12/kingkong/

Quote:
did i say hed sell this movie? i said hed market it to the younger crowd....

You listed it as a selling point for the film. Yes you said it.

Quote:
his one "other movie" just happens to be the usual suspects.

Wow. REALLY? Oh well since that movie was just about 10 years ago, that changes everything.

Quote:
ya, x2's 85 million dollar opening shows that its marketing was horrible.

The marketing was horrible. X2 coasted as a sequel and was much liked.

Quote:
xmen 1 andit having the biggest non sequel opening ever in 2000 shows ithad terrible marketing as well.

It does not show that it had great marketing. Your logic is flawed.

Quote:
its different from what w.b. did with batman,and batman still would of toped 60 million had t opened on a friday.

Batman was a different film... how is it suddenly revolutionary if WB didn't use it on Batman but has decided to use this (rather common route) of selling it with Superman.

Quote:
wild wild west was very well hyped. it just sucked.

Let me get this straight... Wild Wild West had good marketing but failed because it sucked. But the quality of X2 has nothing to do with it's success... it was all just the marketing with that one. Right.

Quote:
you obviously dunno, but supes fans hate him cause he bases movies around action figures/toys/merchandise he can make for the movie. like batmanin 1989 was though,this movie just seems to be a good one while he does that.

I could care less. He adds nothing to this movie. You argue he does, then he doesn't, then now he does again. Great logic.

EDIT: Pulled back a little... a little too harsh.


Sat Mar 04, 2006 4:04 pm
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Superfreak
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the quality of x2 has nothing to do with 31 million opening day and 85 million weekend. x3 wasa great movie but had amuliplier of like, 2.4


Sat Mar 04, 2006 4:57 pm
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College Boy Z

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X-Men was well-liked. Therefore, X2 opened well, but it was extremely frontloaded.

In Batman Begins' situation, Batman & Robin was hated. So, a lot of people didn't give Batman Begins a chance at first, hence the lower than expected opening weekend. But, once people heard the great WOM, it had legs.


Sat Mar 04, 2006 5:05 pm
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College Boy Z

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Oh, and since excel likes to put so much emphasis in the buzz charts right now, here's a look at Yahoo's buzz chart.

http://buzz.yahoo.com/movies/

X3 and Spider-Man 3 are ahead of Superman Returns? Incredible! Even Batman Begins is ahead of Superman Returns as well! excel, I think Superman is in trouble.

(You see how ridiculous your arguement can get?)


Sat Mar 04, 2006 6:27 pm
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Zingaling wrote:
Oh, and since excel likes to put so much emphasis in the buzz charts right now, here's a look at Yahoo's buzz chart.

http://buzz.yahoo.com/movies/

X3 and Spider-Man 3 are ahead of Superman Returns? Incredible! Even Batman Begins is ahead of Superman Returns as well! excel, I think Superman is in trouble.

(You see how ridiculous your arguement can get?)


If you think Excel's argument is bad, just wait till you see this superman128's post. Not only that he shoves his predictions and arguments on anyone's throat if they disagree with him. He sounds vaguely like someone we know in here who use to frequent here alot(not so much the prediction but how he shoves the argument over anyone who disagrees with him)
who tends to make certain movies about how hes cheerleading them

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/forums/pro ... dade64229b


Sat Mar 04, 2006 6:48 pm
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Extraordinary

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Zingaling wrote:
Oh, and since excel likes to put so much emphasis in the buzz charts right now, here's a look at Yahoo's buzz chart.

http://buzz.yahoo.com/movies/

X3 and Spider-Man 3 are ahead of Superman Returns? Incredible! Even Batman Begins is ahead of Superman Returns as well! excel, I think Superman is in trouble.

(You see how ridiculous your arguement can get?)


I'm not taking sides, but that was just for Friday.

For 2005, out of the most searched movies, Superman Returns is #4, and was the only film not yet released, or not released in 2005 to make the top 2005 movie searches chart. (Others being The Incredibles, ND, and Spiderman).

It's not surprising to see X3 higher that day, its full length trailer is slated to be revealed on Monday. Superman hasnt released anything in ages, so it was bound not to really be up on the list. But that #4 spot for the entire year 2005 is very good.


Sat Mar 04, 2006 6:52 pm
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The Thirteenth Floor
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-X2 had fantastic marketing. It was strong from the beginning, and the TV spots were very well made. Being the sequel to a well liked movie created the potential for a 200m+ gross, but the marketing allowed X2 to live up to it.

-Wild Wild West was given massive hype and a huge quantity of advertising. However, the quality of the marketing wasn't good; the ads and trailers were not that effective. The premise also didn't have much commercial potential. WB just decided to take the approach of: "Hey, we have a summer popcorn flick starring Will Smith. People will automatically wander in."

-It wasn't quality that made the difference for either of those movies. WWW opened on day 1 with less then expected. X2 was much bigger on opening day then the studio ever expected.

-It's highly unlikely that SR will repeat the WOM and legs of BB. WOM like that just doesn't happen that often. SR needs a massive opening.


Sat Mar 04, 2006 7:49 pm
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Speaking of toys and kids seeing the movie...

Kids buying toys does not equal kids buying movie tickets. My cousin got a bunch of Hulk toys the year it came out, but he never saw the movie. Hulk had tons of toys and marketing, but it bombed.

So, toys do not equal box-office, though sometimes it helps, other times it doesn't. Even the PotC merchandise is more to appease the fans since we didn't get jack crap for the first film 'til over a year later. And speaking of that, there was just about NO merchandise for the first PotC film until long, LONG after it came out, and yet look how good it did. So merchandise doesn't necessarily equal box-office.

Joy


Sat Mar 04, 2006 9:56 pm
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Superfreak
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Zingaling wrote:
Oh, and since excel likes to put so much emphasis in the buzz charts right now, here's a look at Yahoo's buzz chart.

http://buzz.yahoo.com/movies/

X3 and Spider-Man 3 are ahead of Superman Returns? Incredible! Even Batman Begins is ahead of Superman Returns as well! excel, I think Superman is in trouble.

(You see how ridiculous your arguement can get?)


thats one day and its just been announced that x3s trailer is being released monday, and spiderman 3 just hada picture. on that day superman lost the battle, but as other charts show its winning the war. most searched in febuary, and nowwe know its number 4 most searched movie of 2005, and this film didnt have anything in 2005 until november apart from magazine ads.

explain how my argument is ridiculous....you just dont think superman willbe as a big as i do so you dont accept my points, you just look at the negative side of them;small as they may be.

ya x2 was a sequel to a well liked movie but ok then what about xmen ones marketing?


Sat Mar 04, 2006 11:38 pm
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Please explain to me how most-searched equals big box-office. I'm not seeing a proven correlation.

Joy


Sun Mar 05, 2006 2:17 am
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Superfreak
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i dont know what you want to hear..i think its self explainable.

people look up movies that peak their interest.

yahoo is a very popular site among the public.

now...listen.

superman was the humber 4 most searched movie of the whole year 2005 on yahoo.

basically A LOT of people searched usperman because they wanted to know more about it cause it has them interested, and most of these searched probably came after that "horrible" teaser.

it doesnt mean big box office, it just means big buzz for a film far away. the proven correlation is that 2 of three that beat superman were box office goliaths in spiderman and the incredible, and all 3 were huge dvd successes.

also superman was the only one from 2006. how do you dont understand how this means this film has big buzz? like last year star wars episode 3 was the only 2005 film in the top 10 most searched movies on yahoo,it was number 7. superman was number 4.


Last edited by Excel on Sun Mar 05, 2006 2:46 am, edited 1 time in total.



Sun Mar 05, 2006 2:41 am
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Superfreak
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O wrote:
excel wrote:
O wrote:
If Superman 2 took a drop from the cultural phenom that was IJ 1, with the two week gap in their release dates, shouldn't one expect that the new Superman might get hurt by the huge cultural phenom that is POTC 2 in its 2nd weekend of release?


of course, thats why it doesnt even a shot at 400 million.


I'm a bit confused. What are you arguing exactly? For it to do $100 m, 200, 300 m total, or 50, 60,70,80,90,100 m opening, what exactly are you arguing? I'm a tad lost, and would rather not read through 14 pages. :sweat:


im saying superman will open to at least 90 million, and has a a fair to good shot at going over 300 million domesticly.

in reality its really not as much money as people are making it out to be in a non slump year.


Sun Mar 05, 2006 2:43 am
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So they are supposedly airing the trailer in May probably with Poseidon. That would mean they only have 1 month to build up hype based on actual footage. That isnt enough time. I dont know what WB is thinking airing a trailer with actual footage and money shots to it one month before release. I think its chances of getting at 250 million is slipping away closer and closer.

But of course WB studios will try to spin this by saying why the trailer is airing so late because they are so confident about the movie that airing a trailer so close to the deadline is because its receiving HP and SW's hype. We of course know the truth is that they didnt finish the FX and digital shots in time to make the Superbowl airing and V for Vendetta promo


Fri Mar 10, 2006 2:55 pm
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The Original
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Showing the full trailer with Vendetta would have been a great chance. At least in this way you could have get some of the Comic audience for sure. The time window between Poseidon and Superman release is pretty short. Bad move.


Fri Mar 10, 2006 3:02 pm
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The biggest grip is not even one screenshot of FX or candyshot is shown to people extremely late at this point. Last year prop shots from SWs,Batman Begins, and WOTW were shown as early as february/January. Nothing so far has really been shown from Superman Returns, alot of the stuff is just pretty much candid shots. If you also look at the Superman boards, most of the topics are about Christopher Reeves and if Brandon Routh fills his shoes are not. Its one of these reasons why Superman's buzz is so inflated on the internet


Fri Mar 10, 2006 3:14 pm
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Ive lowered my Sups Returns prediction to around 340m. Should fall 60%-65% in its 2nd wknd when Pirates2 blasts it into cannon fodder.

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Sat Mar 11, 2006 12:36 am
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BJ wrote:
Ive lowered my Sups Returns prediction to around 340m. Should fall 60%-65% in its 2nd wknd when Pirates2 blasts it into cannon fodder.


IF Superman Returns drops over 60% 2nd week, which is very very possible, no way does it pass 300 million.

I'm staying strong with my 220 prediction.

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Sat Mar 11, 2006 1:12 am
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Superfreak
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well, i think the 2 month super campagn is the best way to do it, but thats just me. besides, theres a lot of awareness for this movie ANYWAY-just like spiderman and episode 3. its w.b.s job to turn awareness into hype come june, and this is easily the best way to do that.

its teaser has gotten tons of exposure-potter, now v for vendetta which should be a solid hit.then posiedon will make good money.

i just think w.b.s copying fox's campagn for star wars. read it, its very similar.


Sat Mar 11, 2006 7:26 pm
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