They still got about 4 months to move the movie, just like F4 moved away from WOTW's slot

I wasn't all that impressed with the initial teaser, but now when I realized that this has a budget of $250 m, and stars relatively unknowns or lesser know actors (other than Spacey), I seriously wonder what WB was thinking. Bryan Singer is great and all, but Batman came back with a $150 m budget after 8 years absence, and backed by a strong supporting cast, although Bale was a relatively less known actor, similar to Superman's situation. But Superman is coming back after 19 years (I think). Batman learned the hard way you need a very strong story first, before throwing a budget in front. I don't know much about Superman, and I admit that, but a $250 m budget is ridiculous. And before I get heckled by everyone, I'm speaking from a common moviegoer perspective. I doubted Batman would do the huge predictions that people had for it last year, and I'm sure if this film is really really good, then it'll do well. Unfortunately, I dont' think the first film back should have been budgeted at $250 m. I know all the fanboys will say "this was necessary to make the best film," but I still think its too much. It would have to do $300 m for me to deem it a success now considering that budget.

Uhem Excel

Did you post this at BOM. So us Kjers are retarded aye?

Originally posted by elterrible:
kjs retarded...i post there as excel and their two best preditcors-zingaling and lecter-think superman wont even cross 200 million...

their.mods.dont.think.this.will.cross.200.million.

all i have to say.

Not to turn this into a BOM predictors vs Kjer thread but I read alot of comments from you also Magnus saying that we are lousy predictators when it comes to movies not playing months away, well all I can say is a good portion of our predictators are pretty close on movies like Kong and Narnia while I mainly see 400 million predictions for Kong at BOM

So there!!!

Well I certainly disagree with Zing and Lecter on SR reaching 200m. I'm pretty sure it will reach 300m at this point.

..so it would be 2 $300 milllion grossers within 2 weeks of each other?

Yeah. I don't see why that wouldn't be possible. I don't think we've ever had two films this big back to back.

Did I not just say on the last page that I think it'll make $200 million?

excel, you're kind of on crack. First of all, Lecter is not a mod. I am a mod, but I don't see how being a "mod" has anything to do with my predicting capabilities. I said it'll make $200 million, probably, but it's not some super $400+ million like you expect.

It's not impossible but when both movies basically have the same main demo it does hurt, lets not forget that we got a superhero movie coming out earlier then Superman that will take away some of it's superhero mojo, especially since it's a well established franchise unlike Superman which is trying to resurrect itself so either way you look at it as of right now the next X-Men movie has more going for it then Superman, it could change easily ofcourse though. 200m isnt a lock and nor is 300m as of right now, the teaser didnt sell this movie, it'll need to have one hell of a trailer and some VERY effective marketing to get over 300m, oh and ofcourse some great wom cause I dont see this having a HUGE monster opening.

For a movie with such a huge budget there is not one thing so far from the teaser, pictures or anything similar that screams out this movie will have alot of flash and flair, more action and less seeing Superman fly around for an hour.

Kill summed it up well. Post all the magazine covers you want, excel, but if Superman doesn't razzle and dazzle with its trailer and marketing, you can just forget about $300 million total.

Speaking of BOM, I read the "Pirates vs. Superman" thread. Some... interesting comments regarding WOKJ. Heh.

Good find, roid.

Hehe. I just realized that Bosworth and Bloom will have their films opening a week from each other. Its very TomKat-esc, with their big films opening 2 weeks from each other. Hopefully they stay (relatively) normal.

first of all....i didnt mean you were ratarded. i meant that i feel some of your reasoning retarded.not you personally. i mean read the predictions...some are just obnoxious. superman not crossing 60 million opening cause batman couldnt? that-imo-is a retarded reason. nothing personal, but i think thats a horrible reason. superman returns appeals to much more people then batman begins did and doesnt have the huge batman& robin effect andhas had its marketing handled far better then batmans. incaseyou foirget, with small promotion batman still would have had 60 million + hadit opened on a friday. and that was in the dead month ofjune in the middle of a huge box office slump.

second i made mods dont think itll cross 200 million before that zing changed his mind. and thats true...baba was the only one out of lecter zing and baba that thought this would cross 200 million last time this thread was going. lecter still hasnt said this will cross 200 million and that i just dont understand.

fact is the stuff some of you are saying...that is bad for predicting films far away.you say "its cause i havent anything with flair to it yet"....or the teaser fizzled.ya so because its teaserwasnt what you wante din november, it wont do well in june....

(GREAT way to predict films a few months off)

if a filmis 4 months or more away, you shoulodnt base aprediction on what you HAVE seen you, you base a prediction on what you think your GOING to see. because your OBVIOUSLY going tomuch more and much more impressive things as it gets clser to release and to ignore that is being stubburn.

thats the point, and you cant argue with it cause its an opinion thing, but think about it. the point of aprediction to to predict whats going to happen, and i, magnus, and others, PREDICT they will market the hell out of it, thus your opening predict have to go up. I also predict it will be a *good* film so its legs wont be entirly horrible.

and i never said its going for 400 million EVER-ifyou keep reading at mojo youll see is said 375 is absolute max and for that to happen supes would need to be the best picture and pirates couldnt cross 300.

do you honestly, seriously think that there wont advertise action? or special effects?

its not personal against any posters here,its just that i think their reasoning is bad. if you said,for example, i dont think superman will top 240 million cause lois lane has a child, itll be too dark and hard to understand because the plot will be confusing for kids,i might be tempted to agree. but saying stuff like "i havent seen anything thus far....so it cant do 200 million cause i havent seen anything yet" is just stubburn because you know that were obviously going to see the far more impressive stuff in june and with the theatrical trailer, but yet some posters here are chosing to ignore those facts when making a prediction, which i think is stupid.

look at all facts

in recent 2 movie franchises have risen from being gone long ago:batman and star wars

batman ended horribly just 8 years prior to begins release. star wars ended greatly 16 years. superman ended horribly 19 years ago, so its a mix. while superman wont have the ultra massive hype star wars had, it also wont have the low batman had. batmans "low" hype would of topped 60 million if it opened on a friday. star wars ultra hype had its inflated gross at 540 million u.s.

i think if batman can get 57-60 with little marketing, NO public hype based from the character history, and a bad release date, i say supermancan get 85-90 with big marketing, mild to possibly big(look at the polls)hype on character history, more appeal to kids and familes, and a better release date.

Its going to be fun watching Pirates2 100% OWN Sups in July

Marketing the hell out of a movie does not a high opening make. If it did, King Kong would have left the gate running. Instead, it faltered from the get-go, even with the excessive marketing.

So even if WB markets the hell out of SR doesn't mean the movie will do good box-office. I remember Batman Begins spots getting quite a bit of coverage on TV, but did that help? Nope. Same with King Kong.

So, the promise of extensive marketing does not 100% (or any percentage) guarantee an automatic hit for a movie.

Joy

your right to some extent, huge marketing of a superman mvie on july 4th assures ATLEAST 60illion 3 day.

that below the minimum imo.

I'm just looking at this from a moviegoer's perspective, as I really haven't followed the Superman movie much at all, but it does sound interesting. But I wanted to address your point that I quoted. It's not that I don't think they'll advertise special effects, but really, its March, and alot of effects full footage has come from the other tentpoles of the summer, but nothing really out of this world for Superman other than a light narration. From a common moviegoer's perspective, the slow approach has other films grabbing moviegoers attention. If Superman wants to be a contender, WB really needs to pick this up fast. The full length Xmen trailer is coming out within days. It would be a good idea on WB's part to pick up the pace on marketing of this film.

from a moviegoers perspective....dude theres going to be so many kids in line for thisfilm. that brings parents.action bings men. romance brings women. superman brings nerds. ect.

plusitl be thefirst big summer flick in a month and there will be heavymedia hype and coverage but unlike kong,this film wont seem out of place, more like right on time. the media willprobably hype supes vs. pirates much like they hyped spidey vs attack of the clones

it will be, in the last day theres been a ton of newspics.

but youve got to remember thisfilm opens over a month after x3. you dont want marketing to early that people forget bout it like batman

When it comes down to it though, the big stars and talent behind the camera will be pushed moreso though. Depp is at the top of his game, and is perhaps the most popular actor in the world right now. Also, you push the fact that kids will line up for it, but remember, they have short attention spans, as do most moviegoers in the summer (with the regular 50 + % dropoffs after a big opening). Because of the huge stars pushing POTC 2, I would think that it would garner more publicity. I don't know how the stars of Superman will get the same buzz as the Depp/Bloom/Knightly combo.

Pirates will win... not sure by how much... but it'll win

Pirates can range from a total of 320-400 mil

Supes can range from a total of 150-325 mil

So... yeah

See, I would try to make an argument but I have no idea what the hell I just read.

they wont. pirates isobviously going to open to more but that dont mean superman will open small.

what would you even argue?

i said the ways some poster predict here are flawed in terms of marketing and advertising cause they only judge by what theyve seen or in this case, how much theyve seen, instead of PREDICTING what they think well see.

for instance, saying superman returns will open low because

1)you didnt like the teaser
2)they havet marketed it alot
3)batman couldnt do it

is stubburn and ignorant, because we know theyll be more promoting.

dunno how you dont understand that, but it proves magnus's pointin that a lot of the people who predict like this probably are wayoff months before it opens.

First off how can we judge by anything other then what we've seen? So what we're suppose to just pretend like Superman Returns will have some out of this world marketing and an incredible trailer to back up the hype? No, what i've seen is a lackluster teaser with footage that didnt give me any interest whatsoever.

What are you talking about Marketing? Nobody said it doesnt have marketing it doesnt need to have marketing yet, it's not coming out for awhile, I said it'll need some very strong marketing once the time comes.

Who said anything about since Begins couldnt do it Superman cant? You brought up that Superman is more popular then Spider-Man and Batman and then someone used Boxoffice numbers from previous films to prove to you that argument doesnt hold up when we look at the past movies.

From what I get from reading some of your posts in this thread is that Superman is gonna be huge because he's the most well known Superhero, it has big buzz on the internet, and it's effects will be incredible ( how you came up with this I dont know ) None of that holds any weight and doesnt result into huge numbers.

killuminati, first fo all, youve been biased against superan since the very begining of this thread. second of all, what are you talking about ?

"First off how can we judge by anything other then what we've seen?"

its pretty easy, infact just about everyone here does it everyday. your saying you didnthave apredict forkong beforejune19th of 2005? or harry potter before,what september 2005? that an incredibly lackluster teaser as well. did you have harrypotter 4 at like, 50/145 cause its teaser was so "slow"and there was no new marketing what soever until the theatricaltrailerin september?


read the thread. lots ofpeople are saying if batman couldnt do it,i dont see how superman could.

and you dont thinkthat big time special effects are a huge draw in the middle of the summer?ok pal....

When you predict a films box office you look at the NOW...

You don't predict things that you have NO idea about... You can't make a good prediction without something behind it...

So predictions in the NOW are the only predictions that make sense