we should beat this weekend no problem!

I not sure there has ever been a weekend with the openers earning over 65m without a single one of them earning 25m.

Fantastic weekend, although next week will see weaker numbers from the openers. Hopefully March isn't as weak as it seems to be at this point IMO.

If tracking is accurate, The Shaggy Dog and 16 Blocks will both somehow do well. Not that I don't want to see 16 Blocks, but nothing about that movie screams a $21M opening weekend. V for Vendetta and The Inside Man should pull in some solid numbers. Even some of my friends are interested in The Inside Man, which is kind of surprising.

Last March was really strong, though. The Pacifier, Be Cool, The Ring Two, Robots, and Guess Who all made over $50M, and two of them made over $100M.

I actually think there's a lot of potential in 16 blocks.

I think The Inside Man, 16 Blocks, and V for Vendetta are being overpredicted. Until Ice Age 2 I expect it to be somewhat weak.

Yeah I think from next week onwards we will be in for declines from last year atleat until V for Vendetta weekend. Remember last Prez day weekend was very strong. And March was also very strong.

However, this April should more than make up for it and the big gains will be made in the first half of May!

on the strength of the openers, we beat last year at a top 12 total of 106.6

Next weekend should be a win, the holdovers will be good due to the snowstorm on Sunday, and Date Movie should open well. Good start to the year so far!


1 1 Hitch Sony $31,355,930
2 N Constantine WB $29,769,098
3 N Because of Winn-Dixie Fox $10,208,431
4 N Son of the Mask NL $7,511,675 (how did it make this much?!?!)
5 4 Million Dollar Baby WB $6,810,065
6 3 Are We There Yet? Sony $6,285,089
7 2 Boogeyman SGem $5,310,462 -48.1%
8 8 The Aviator Mira. $4,155,024 -11.1%
9 5 Pooh's Heffalump Movie BV $4,127,699
10 6 The Wedding Date Uni. $3,852,360

This Year

1. Date Movie -- 30 million
2. Eight Below -- 16 million
3. Pink Panther -- 15 million
4. Freedomland -- 14 million
5. Curious George -- 11.5 million
6. Final Destination 3 -- 10 million
7. Firewall -- 9 million
8. When A Stranger Calls -- 6 million
9. Big Momma's House -- 5 million
10. Brokeback Mountain -- 3.5 million

Yes, May 2006 will almost undoubtably beat May 2005.

May 2005

6-8 -- 78.5 million (MI3 could make that in it's first weekend)
13-15 -- 94.5 (Posiedon opens this weekend, as well as a Lindsay Lohan Comedy)
20-22 -- 157.6 (going to be mighty hard to match, but with Da Vinci and Over the Hedge opening, if we have good hold-overs we will make it)
27-29 -- (again, it will be tough, but with X3 opening, and potential good holdovers, we could make it again)

2006's lead is getting smaller and smaller each weekend.

At this same point last year, Hitch and Constantine both dominated. Although Eight Below, The Pink Panther, and a few others seem to be doing well, we'll need a $100M movie soon or 2006 will fall behind until Ice Age: The Meltdown releases.

Well, we are still doing decently.. we matched last year this weekend, and last year was strong with Hitch grossing over 30 million and Constantine opening at 29 million.

We should be able to match next weekend as well.

last year:

1 Diary of a Mad Black Woman Lions $21,905,089
2 Hitch Sony $20,420,799
3 Constantine WB $12,046,452
4 Cursed Dim. $9,633,085
5 Man of the House Sony $8,917,251
6 Million Dollar Baby WB $7,344,390
7 Because of Winn-Dixie Fox $6,823,980
8 Are We There Yet? Sony $4,111,030
9 Son of the Mask NL $3,822,241
10 The Aviator Mira. $3,739,037

Top 10 total: 98.5 million

1. Madea's Family Reunion -- 25 million
2. Eight Below -- 14 million
3. Pink Panther -- 10 million
4. Doogal -- 10 million
5. Date Movie -- 10 million
6. Curious George -- 8 million
7. Final Destination 3 - 6 million
8. Firewall -- 6 million
9. Running Scared -- 5 million
10. Freedomland -- 3.5 million

Top 10 total : 97 million

It will certainly be close.. A lot depends on the stregth of the opening of Madea's Family Reunion. All signs are pointing to a larger opening for the sequel, but the truth is you just never know... so we'll have to wait and see.

Yes I think 2006 is doing very well without mega films like Hitch and Constantine. All it needs to do is hold steady till Ice Age. However I do fear for early March - it will most likely fall behind 05.

06 will not be stoped, this comming summer it will crush even 04 with both Sups and Pirates2 easily making 350m+ each I expect to see the first year with 4 300m+ films

Pirates2: 588m

Sups Returns: 340m-406m

Happy Feet: 356m

The Da Vinci Code: 324m

BJ, you're crazy.

My derby track record (especially this year) is proof of my sanity

The dark side just takes over you when you predict in the derby. The dark side is your sane side.

Last year's top 2 were very strong. Thank goodness we have very strong holdovers to make up for that $ Hitch made.

[table][row]Year[col]YTD[col]2006[col]2005[col]2004[col]2003[col]2002[row][col][col]% change[col]% change[col]% change[col]% change[col]% change[row]2006[col]$1,254.1[col color=#C0C0C0]-[col]1.40%[col]5.10%[col]-2.10%[col]2.80%[row]2005[col]$1,237.0[col]-1.40%[col color=#C0C0C0]-[col]3.70%[col]-3.40%[col]1.40%[row]2004[col]$1,193.3[col]-4.80%[col]-3.50%[col color=#C0C0C0]-[col]-6.80%[col]-2.20%[row]2003[col]$1,281.0[col]2.10%[col]3.60%[col]7.40%[col color=#C0C0C0]-[col]5.00%[row]2002[col]$1,219.9[col]-2.70%[col]-1.40%[col]2.20%[col]-4.80%[col color=#C0C0C0]-[/table]

2006 falls behind 2003 and the lead is narrowing over last year now. With the Passion of the Christ boost coming up for 2004 the gap on that year will close considerably as well.

I don't think we'll see 2006 ahead of last year until Ice Age comes out, unless some films in between are really, really strong. Just a few hits like V for Vendetta and The Shaggy Dog isn't enough. Last March was quite strong.

Thank god April was crap. This year we have Ige Age 2, Scary Movie 4 and Flight 93 to last year's Sin City, Sahara and Hitchhiker's Guide.

Heres the real BJ equation formula

((BJ prediction)/2)+(BJ prediction/8)= true BO number
Ex. (356/2)+(356/8)=220.5 total for Happy Feet

And, what's weird is that $220 million seems extremely realistic for Happy Feet.

I think you've stumbled upon quite a formula, there, Roid!

If we apply that to his other predictions...:

Pirates of the Caribbean: ($588 million / 2) + ($588 million / 8) = $367.5 million
Superman Returns: ($373 million / 2) + ($377 million / 8) = $233.1 million
Happy Feet: ($356 million / 2) + ($356 million / 8) = $220.5 million
The Da Vinci Code: ($324 million / 2) + ($324 million / 8) = $202.5 million

This is fantastic!

BJ was trying to trick us all along.

That is by far the coolest thing I've seen all year.

= (BJ prediction) * (5/8)

no sense in doing extra math.