Just like I said in the other thread, I'm now predicting a Crash shutout on March 5th, against all odds. According to my predictions:

- It'll definitely lose Sup. Actor, Picture and Director (duh);

- It'll lose song to Dolly Parton, who's a legend and lost 25 years ago- a deserved winner btw (even if I also happen to love Bird York's song)

- It'll lose Editing to The Constant Gardener;

and...

- It'll lose Original Screenplay to Clooney, for Good Night, and Good Luck - since, like I said, the WGA doesn't usually match 2/2 with the Oscar, and we all know Brokeback is going to win that Oscar - in the last 20 years, a perfect match only happened 6 times, including last year -> so 2 years in a row doesn't seem that likely to me ;





So, who's with me?

And since this year looks like 1999 all over again, I'd also like to point out that there were 3 BP nominated movies that were completely shutout that year: The Green Mile (with 4 noms), The Sixth Sense (with 6 noms) and The Insider (with 7 noms).


So, the possibility of having at least two movies getting zero wins is extremely likely, even (or specially?) with the lack of a clear frontrunner (i.e., a movie with 10 or more nominations, since we all know that Brokeback is this year's American Beauty..)


Munich seems to be one of them; Capote will win Actor for Hoffman, so it seems like it's between Crash and Good Night and Good Luck - one of the two will definitely win screenplay and the other will probably walk away empty handed..

Can't do it, man. I really think Crash is going home with something.

Crash will most likely get screenplay. GNAGL seems destined to be the one leaving empty-handed.

Yeah, Crash will win screenplay. The momentum it has been building is too strong for it to not something. Appearing before GNAGL on the ballot (as the nominees are listed in alphabetical order) should help too.

Yeah, I know it seems very unlikely right now..

but since the idea of Crash winning BP is even more unlikely than Crash losing everything (for me at least), and since Ebert and Roeper are now predicting it to win (shame on them, really! ), I decided to create this thread.. I'll probably predict it to win something for the Oscar game (or not)...


and we do have a "Munich is going to win BP" thread, so why not a thread like this?

I have Dillon taking home an Oscar, so Crash will walk away with at least that one. Hopefully, not more though.

Crash will win at least one!


Hater

I think it should win best song. And editing would be fine with me, too.

But I'm going to scream when this thing wins best screenplay. And as of now, that seems unavoidable.

It will win screenplay at least. GNGL is going to be shut out.

Lots of the big critics are predicting this baby to win Best Picture now.

It's not too unlikely.

I guess the critics predicting Crash to win Best Picture hasn't considered the fact that Ang Lee won his 2nd DGA award and whoever wins a 2nd DGA, his picture has a better chance of winning Best Picture at the Oscars. The exception being Oliver Stone who won his 2nd DGA for Born on the 4th of July then Driving Miss Daisy winning Best Pic.

The difference is that Oliver Stone already won before, for Platoon. CTHD hasn't won.

BBM will take it.

Ok, Crash will win Editing now (after the ACE win)... and Screenplay too (after the BAFTA win)... I was wrong..

meh..

The talks about the best picture win will soon begin again..




And I'm not a hater, mat - I actually prefer Crash to Good Night and Good Luck..

There you go.

The critics predicting Crash to win (*cough*Ebert and Roeper*cough*) are MORONS. Ebert is annoying me with his blatant bias, and I'm utterly shocked Roeper is joining in.

Brokeback Mountain will get Picture. It hasn't lost in the Best Director or Best Picture category in anything major at all (Globes, Guilds, etc). It even just won the BAFTA's, to put the icing on the cake.

PEACE, Mike.

Well, Ebert did some really gutsy predictions over the past years, but he usually sticks those to the acting categories - like Shohreh over Renee Zellwegger in 2004 and Amy Adams this year (the exceptions being Moulin Rouge in 2002 and Crouching Tiger in 2001 - and of course these two were MUCH bigger threats than Crash at the time... Moulin Rouge had the Globe and the PGA, Tiger had the DGA and the Globe for best Director)


It's just wishful thinking, of course.. even more than in 2002, when we were all hoping for a Moulin Rouge/Lord of the Rings win...

bump.