HA! What a joke . No way will that happen. And this weekend it should do over 5 Million. I'm predicting 5.5 Million.

They would be stupid to have it on DVD March 7th. More people will see it in theaters after it wins. It will make it to 100 Million and with more people having seen it it will do even better in sales when it is released, which hopefully isn't until late June. It will also be a bigger renter in the summer, as rental numbers go up quite a bit during the summer.

Í actually think that is a bit too high - I´d say $4.2-4.8M

Me too. It still has a shot to top $80 million before the Oscars.

yeah, it should definatley hit that mark.. even with a 4.5 million weekend, it's total will stand at 67 million. Then it has the long weekend, plus two more weekends after that, plus all of the weekdays.... I think it's total will be more like 85 million by Oscar night...

I think it will fall to around $4 million this weekend, maybe a bit below.

It should be just around $80 million, give or take a couple, by the Oscar telecast.

I do think It´ll be closer to $85M than to $80M. We´ll see.

you know, I think Focus is smartly staying quiet and keeping the movie on the down low for the next few weeks. With all the critics' stuff in late january, the publicity blitz may have been too much. It's now receeding into quiet terretory again. In the end it might be good to do so so that come oscar night there isn't so much angst against the movie.

Ya, it's best to just leave things as is. Drop but don't take away TOO many theatres. And then revamp the campaign after it wins!

Well, the film has no competition for Best Picture on Oscar night, so who the hell cares I guess. Sure Munich and Good Night, and Good Luck are dandy movies, but common, they don't even come close to matching the buzz, clout and widespread acclaim that BBM has enjoyed.

I think there are a couple things:
1) While it is the same week on the calendar year, it isn't relative to the Oscar schedule. Last year the 23% drop came over two weeks after the nominations were announced. If you compare it to the same week after the nominations Sideways was up 14%. However, that was with the addition of 1,000 theaters, so a comparision is difficult to make.
2) That Sideways drop of 23% was the result of a daily fluctuation. If you average the weekdays it's more like 16%. For BBM there has been a trend for worse week to week drops. It's now drop 30% for the second day.

Mainly however it's a matter of the PTA. Sideways remained over $2,500. Most of the theaters remained safe at that level, however at $2,000 they do not. Just a small difference in PTA can entirely change the prospects for an oscar film. Look at how Munich and GANGL are holding up compared to M&C. Tough theaters losses for both this week.



But, what if it's in fewer theaters?

Also, if it's like the nominations it won't see as much of a bump as usual. My reasoning has been that the avid Oscar fans that go see the movies in Jan are the ones prone to being enthusiastic about BBM. The more conservative (and older) casual Oscar fans that go after the nominations are the ones likely to be hesitant about seeing it. This explanation obviously can't be proven by the BO data, but it does fit well with it.

I agree with 1). Comparisons are very difficult. Problem with 2) is, the drop for BBM is from the week of the Academy noms, when the movie got a boost. So of course It´s meant to drop more than usual. Conclusion: Comparisons ares till very difficult. I brought "Sideways" up because I think that, despite the diferences, both runs from here till Oscar night could be pretty similar.

On the other hand, BBM is going to start losing theaters this weekend, and I really doubt its PTA for the next month is going to drop more than $2,000. As you know, most BP Oscar nominated movies have between 10-25% drops from here on till ceremony night. I don´t think there is a reason why BBM should perform worse than that... But you may be right about its audience. On the other hand, It could be argued that its mature audience is in no rush (hence likely sweet drops in the coming weekends) and some of them will be definitely convinced and won´t be able to avoid checking out the movie anymore after a BP win. Final conclusion: who knows?

what long weekend is coming up?

also,

I just saw my first BBM commercial touting the 8 Acadamy Awards.. they played it during Oprah!

The President's Day Weekend is next weekend, the Monday is a holiday in the US....

Usually in my experiance when you have a consistent trend it will generally continue even when you think it will change. So far BBM has been short of expectations each week for a month due to Oscar effect being less (or earlier?) then expected. I'm guessing that will continue, but yeah, who knows?

No way will it drop that much.

Actually ya, I retract that.
I keep forgetting about the Superbowl. It should gross somewhere in the mid $4m. I'm estimating it at around $4.6 million now (1.25/2.0/1.35).

Including this weekend, I'm estimating Brokeback will make another $18m by Oscar night, putting its total just under $81m

2/10-12: $4.6m (-23%)
2/13-16: $1.9m
2/17-20: $4.3m (-7%)
2/21-23: $1.1m
2/24-26: $2.6m (-27% from 3-day)
2/27-3/2: $1.3
3/3-3/5: $2.4m (-8%)

It's after nomination gross will have been just under $30m. I had predicted around a $37m boost.

I more of less expect something like this in the coming weeks:

This weekend: 4m
Next: 2.7m (loses a few hundred theaters)
24-26: 1.9m (again)
Oscar weekend: 1.6m

wow, I have already seen 3 Brokeback Mountain commercials today, 2 different ones, but each focus on the 8 nominations and various reviews...

I think Focus is finally going to step up the ad campaign.. I hope that it works!
It's the one element that I think they lost their footing on... I think they should have advertised more after the Golden Globes, and stayed steady with it right through the Oscar nominations...

Brokeback won best film and director from the London Film Critics...

geez, this thing just doesn't stop with the awards!

FINALLY, to put to rest all of those rumors about an early DVD release date, President of Focus was quoted this week as saying they plan for the film to screen in theatres for months to come...

“It is by popular demand that we have reached this widest point of national release, after opening nine weeks ago in only five theaters,” said Jack Foley, president of theatrical distribution at Focus, in a statement. “We expect the film to remain in wide release across the country for weeks, indeed, months to come.”


http://www.advocate.com/news_detail_ektid25229.asp

Even losing theaters it will have another really good hold next weekend. It's a 4-Day weekend.

Yeah, I've seen TV spots this week too. They have been quite great and beautiful. This week was the first time I'd seen any since the night Jake Gyllenhaal was on Leno (I saw one during that interview). I'm glad they are starting to advertise it again.

YES! Woohoo! Very good decision! I hope it isn't on DVD until the end of June at the earliest or the beginning of July. It will be a big renter and seller this summer. I am looking forward to it coming to DVD then, but am certainly glad it isn't any sooner. It would have been so disappointing if it was this spring like rumored. I didn't think they'd be that stupid though.

Since Monday they have been advertising with full page ads in the LA Times for their movie listing ad. They never had full page ones during weekdays and RARELY on weekends.

Then, Friday morning (today) I opened the Calendar (movie/entertainment) section to find it had a 2 page spread. I actually hadn't seen a 2 page spread for any movie for a while. They definitely are stepping it up. I wonder if it will make a difference for the weekend.


Also... awesome news about the DVD and it staying in theatres for months. although considering how quickly they changed their plans once they saw how well it played, I wouldn't be surprised if they pull it out of wide release if it drops heavyily after the awards.

Keeping it in theatres as long as MDB will just about ensure it passing $100m

I think it can increase next weekend... but I don't want to set up my hopes too high (once again)