Well, I just came from CLOSER.
I haven't yet made up exactly where I personally stand on the film, but I could tell mroe of my thoughts on its Oscar chances and the race now...
The material and just the feel, the dialogue, the content of the movie is something that we don't usually see the Academy go for. Accompanied by the fact that it's not unanimously praised is gonna make it a tough fight to get in the top 5. At this point, we're back at square 1... the only sure thing is The Aviator.
As far as acting goes... I think Julia Roberts was the least focused character, but it's very confusing becaouse in other ways she is the main character.... but towards the end she's barely in it fading her from memory. The film's short running time (~100 minutes) and scenes split over screen-time with four actors/actresses bring down every actor's screen-time. That's why I think Julia will have a hard time getting in there, unless (as it's turning out to be) this is an up-in-the-air and not necessarily oscar-bait strong year for actresses.
Natalie Portman was very good. The Supporting Actress category might be a little tight, I actually don't know now.... but she could get in.
Clive Owen, I did not think, stole every scene. Do they say that cuz he has such a hoarse voice and is the only oen who screams? :wink: He was quite good, but now I take him out of my lock for a Supp. Actor win... he still has a great chance to get in the nomination.
How utterly surprised I was that Jude Law, in my opinion, was the best in this film. Granted, he probably has the most screen-time, but he really amazed me. And it's a shame that the actor category is so crowded.
They were all just about equally as good, but I think Law stood a little above the rest... but Owen will get more attention cuz he's the more commanding actor.
Well, let me try another stab at this....
As of December 04, 2004 (after seeing CLOSER)
1. The Aviator
2. Finding Neverland (+2)
3. Closer (-1)
4. Million Dollar Baby (+2)
5. Ray (=)
6. Sideways (=)
7. Phantom of the Opera (-4)
8. Hotel Rwanda (-2)
9. Kinsey (=)
10. the Passion of the Christ (+1)
11. The Sea Inside (-1)
12. Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind (+2)
13. Vera Drake (-1)
14. A Very Long Engagement (-)
15. Spanglish (=)
16. Fahrnheit 9/11 (Re-entry)
Analysis....
1. the Aviator: I saw the trailer again, now on the big screen before CLOSER. It is 100% Oscar formula, but it's more than just oscar-bait... it's like the E! True Hollywood Story of Hollywood, better drama, but enough lightness to please the crowds and a majority of the critics. I just can't see how someone can watch the trailer and now say it is the front-runner for Best Picture.
2. Finding Neverland: I really don't think this film belongs here and I don't believe it will get this far, but I can't help but place it here because at the moment all the other movies keep shuffling around with buzz and everything, while Neverland kicked off the official season with a Best Picture win. I think the movie is much weaker than most have led on to believe. Depp's performance isn't as good as he has been before, and the film just never takes light... it's stays kind of static the whole time. but, nevertheless, it has the buzz and is now collecting the accolades.
3. Closer: I really don't know what to make of this now. It is way more perverted and inappropriate than I thought it would be (not that that's a bad thing
) but it's not what Oscar usually goes for.... so much darker and a bit uneven, but with an great cast, not only A-list and popular, but extremely well acted and a well-known and vastly talented (previously awarded) director. I don't know how the Academy can outright ignore this one, but does anyone think a complete snub is possible?? It's chances now are slipping, if 1 step by step per week.... I just hope it doesn't stay out off if it ever leaves my top 5.
4. Million Dollar Baby: the next 4 movies are all up in the air. I'm giving Baby the edge because in a short amount of time it has garnered great buzz and has got me hooked.... it is now my #1 most anticipated for the rest of the year, ahead of Aviator.... or maybe a tie :wink: It has great talent, enough darkness like Mystic River that the academy loves but not as cold as CLOSER.... this might actually take CLOSER's place in the top 5. It is gaining by the day.
5. Ray: This biopic is just too good to pass up. With alot of other bipics losing buzz and flopping, this one is the only true biographically based film left and it's a damn good one at that too! (Aviator focuses on only one time frame of Hughes' life). Great acting, not only by Jamie Foxx and what a way to pay tribute to Ray Charles. I dont' see this coming off my list unless another one of the following 2-3 movies gains major acclaim and buzz.
6. Sideways: I'll keep this short. It's the best reviewed movie of the year and while it's pretty small and not something Academy always goes for, if there is to be any light-hearted, comedic, or quirky film to be nominated this is first in line and the race just about wraps up after that.
7. Phantom of the Opera: This was only #2/3 for so long because nobody really knew much about it. Basically, although there were great doubts, there were also enormous hopes for it and I still think it can surprise and come off with Chicago type nomination numbers. However, the buzz that brought it to my #2 position has not gone anywhere, it stayed the same, not worse not better, but others have gained... so this takes a seat back until further developments. I still think it's a big player, but room for big disappointment.
8. Hotel Rwanda: The buzz started building for this one and now has leveled off a bit. I think for Hotel Rwanda to get a solid place in the top 5, it has to be GOOD and unanimously praised with a strong Best Actor contender. Otherwise other small films like Sideways and Million$Baby will take the top spots for small films (I keep thinking of Million$Baby as a small film... but is it gonna go wide like Mystic River?) We'll ahve to wait for this one.
9. KINSEY: My first reaction to this movie wasn't too great. I liked it, but didn't think it was so strong as to be an Oscar contender, but then the thought of Oscar grew on me and fir for the film, but the buzz wasn't strong enough. At one point, I think it might have been considered around the fifth slot, but now it's sitting just outside all the rumble between Baby/Sideways/Rwanda/closer/...
10. Passion of the Christ: This keeps fluctuating a rank up or rank down for the past 2 weeks.... it's cuz you still can;t consider it out of the race. It's one of Hollywood's most adored leading men and it's a passion project (no pun intended). I can vusalize it's name being called Oscar nomination morning only because of the respect they might gove Gibson.... then again, they might just reward him with a Best Director nod if the Pictire race gets too tied up.... than AGAIN.... the director race is pretty tight too, so it might walk away with nothing, just as it stands now... but it's on my list and at #10 because it has yet to be killed as an outside contender.
11. the Sea Inside: I don't know... I think it's low American profile and the size of the film, but most of all the foreign language is really throwing this one off.... for a few days I gave this a chance in my oscar thinking, but since I believe it is eligible for Best Foreign Film, this might be close to out of the running for Best Picture.
12. Eternal Sunshine: this has been growing a little in my mind in the past few days despite not really getting much with the NBR.... I still doubt its very chance but it's still ahead of Spanglish.... it's stepping up to Oscar-cult status and that can;t count for nothing! :wink:
13. Vera Drake: for some reason this film just screams Gosford Park, most probably cuz they're both primarily british. I think the movie centers around Imelda Staunton more than Imelda Staunton playing a character among other things in he movie and that's whyI think it won't be considered much for Best Picture.... she carries most of the film or she's what everyone remembers (you have to think for a bit about the movie to remember the great supporting characters) and that might hurt the already small film. The Academy might think she is the film and so nominating her will get the whole thing over and done with.
14. A Very Long Engagement: I don't know why this is still here... it's just that it has been getting a big campaign push for Oscars as well as its theatrical release in America. It screams out EPIC with love and war.... but again foreign language and not enough critical acclaim are going to hurt it.
15. spanglish: while it might be a better than average warm-hearted holiday-time film because it's from mel brooks... this just doesn't have the star-power, the status, and I don't think the means to be taken really seriously as an Oscar contender based on sheer quality or as a light-hearted contender (because that's taken up by Sideways and to some extent Eternal Sunshine)
16. Fahrenheit 9/11: I only re-entered this one in because of their strong consideration ads now.... if nothing really happens in the next week or so, it might be off for good!
My most anticipated films of the year left...
1. Million Dollar Baby
2. The Aviator
3. The Phantom of the Opera
4. Ocean's 12
5. Hotel Rwanda
6. Bad Education
7. In Good Company
8. Meet the Fockers
9. The Sea Inside
10. Spanglish
