a drunken pirate who loves weddings vs a guy in a red and blue spandex capable of saving (or destroying) the entire world.

If a guy who wears a red underwear can have so much power, i do not see how he can't win at the box office as well.

The small children appeal that Superman has is being greatly underestimated at this site. It's like that a lot, where people only look at the demographic that they belong to. Superman is DC's Spider-man to the mass audience and to children.

Pirates 2 will make more than double what Superman Returns makes. The blatantly Christ-like SR teaser made me laugh.

in terms of popularity, batman > Superman amongst kids.
Walk into toy stores. Batman has a bigger presence, if only because its a more marketable product (gadgets and devices). Due to this very reason, Batman, for the last 15 years has also had a bigger animated presence on TV.

Superman > Batman if only because hes Superman. He is an icon. No Hulk, Batman, Spiderman .. none of that will ever challenge it. Of course, thats not saying hes more popular. he certainly is not today. But he will remain a bigger icon and that, at the end of the day, will be the money bringer.

Batman has more appeal today but if you add in all the problems that the batman film had to face and face it off against superman's iconic appeal, supes will be the winner.

But that will not push him over spiderman, who did not suffer from any of batman's problems yet still was a character that could easily be marketed to kids and hence, a big toy presence. Plus, hes just bigger right now.

Therefore, in terms of gross

Spiderman > Superman > Batman.

A lot of the college age crowd doesn't seem to grasp that Pirates 1 was pretty much the most loved family movie of the last 10 years. While Superman Returns might appeal to the late teens people, the younger and older will go for Pirates 2.

Archie.

I think Pirate's success at the moment, is completely dependant on how well disney is able to market it. really. i think just about every aspect of its success or failure is dependant on its marketing. it could make anywhere from 170 mil to 360 mil in my books.

Well, when I was speaking of children, I meant little kids. The types that Batman is too dark and violent for most parents to want their youngin's to see.

Superman has more mass appeal because of that, and because of his icon status. He's the one that has continued to have TV shows that are successful, and that's just another example of his sustained appeal that is being underestimated.

He also has Bryan Singer directing it, who is one of the most consistant filmmakers in the biz today.

apparently, you haven't witnessed the dumbing down of batman on tv recently. sigh. tis sad really. they've been pushing the adam west type of batman on the cartoon shows recently. batman's dark nature is something always touched upon but never focussed on. i mean, hes no where close to how dark spawn was portrayed. even in Justice League cartoons, batman is darker than the rest but hes promoted way more. Once again, amongst little kids, its always beenl ogical to push him more because of the amount of accessories you can sell with him. i walked into toys r us a good year and a half before begins was suppose to come out. spiderman has a massive section, batman came in second with his own entire section and the rest of the superheros had to share the same space.

i think the tv shows just go to show that superman's appeal at the end of the da y will be more with the older audiences as opposed to the younger one.

bABA, I'm tempted to start a Superman will gross over 300 million thread, but it's too soon and Im too busy right now to sacrifice the energy those threads take out of me.

Yes, Bats has tons of accessories for toys that Supes doesn't because of all of Bruce Wayne's toys and weapons. A Superman action figure is all there is for any kid to simulate him while playing, but Batman needs a Batmobile, etc...

I just see Superman as the #1 icon of all of the Superheros, and that's coming from a die hard Marvel zombie.

The movie gross doesnt reflect that at all. Superman may be a bigger icon but the receipts dont translate as well in movie. If you compare first Batman's adjusted vs the first Superman adjusted, Batman still wins hands down by an almost 50-60 adjusted gross. Now you compare Superman 2's vs Batman Returns adjusted, you still basically get the same result with Batman winning. I still dont see how Superman Returns will suddenly just revive the whole franchise when the first two successful features doesnt even compare to Batmans number. If it really had the kid factor in it, and Batman being too dark, Batman's number wasnt supposed to have an advantage in number over Superman

The kid factor maybe overestimated if Singer decides to take up the first movie to explain Superman's upbringing and childhood. I believe some people have stated that the movie was supposed to be a continuation but it doesnt seem at all from the trailer and the casting too for Superman's young foster mom. The Hulk and Batman Begins factor may dissuade kids if it does indeed take up an hr or more before Superman reaches his full potential. Lex Luthor also has already been done before so they really should of gone with a different villian

Magnus, you're wrong. That is all.

roid

more than anything, i was refering to right now, not the past. batman begins encountered issues that burton's adaptation never had to deal with. if we go back to burton's film, i would put it over superman because like i mentioned before, batman has been much more popular.

Magnus. Read my posts again. I never said Batman is less popular than superman right now. I already said that Batman is the flagship character for DC right now and has been for almost 18 years.

Dude, I just didn't have time to really get into it right now. If you want to debate this when I get more time, I'll be happy to. Careful, though, because I like to bring up past predictions as a way to discredit, so if you've got some real clunkers that blew up in your face, I'll probably mention them.

Does that mean I can take your Pirates fanboyism to task?

I actually have no idea what your past predictions are, I just know you came from BOM, and you know how it is with those guy's and their predictions being loopey and all.

A squeaker but I would choose POTC2

Pirates will open higher, but definately will feel a drop off probably only barely clearing 210 million, but Superman is able to gross that (only if its good though) and more.

It seems a lot of people are expecting this movie to behave like BB and SM but I suggest people remember that both those movies had established actors in the lead role and great supporting casts. It's not that people went mainly for Tobey or Michael Caine or any of those actors but their presence helped a ton in establishing credibility. SR looks like Kevin Spacey, and a few minor old supporting actors, and a no-name leading man. If this movie were say starring Jake Gyllenhal or Topher Grace and had people like, for instance, Joseph Fiennes in supporting roles I'd be saying it would be better than I am.

so, back to my original question...

Who has the bigger opening weekend... Pirates or Superman Returns?

I guess it's Pirates

I'm actually going to say...

Superman Returns(for total). When the 300 mil+ club starts up, I'll probably join it.

I see Pirates having a big opening, but a response and run similar to The Matrix Reloaded. Probably top out at about 280-290 mil if you ask me.

In any case, I hope it's damn close. It could be a nice battle.

Yeah I get the same feeling. That would give Pirates $250-$270m. Id call it at $280m. Other than on these internet boards - i havnt had a conversation with anybody who has mentioned Pirates over the past 2 years. To me it was lightening in a bottle back in 03 - but i dont see the lightening striking twice. Atleast not to some of the gagantuan numbers bandies about around here.

Having said that - based on the one trailer so far - Im not feeling Superman. The most I can see so far is $230m. But it has breakout potential.

Exactly. I might also add that Tobey or Bale may not be household names but at least they were actors with a great resume and credibility. They had experience doing interviews and running the whole promo circuit. This Brandon Routh is very untested and he hasnt worked in the tv movie industry in over 3 years. It still says he was only in one season of a soap in 2001 and it was left blank for 4 years. What also may work in the 70s with casting, Christopher Reeves in 1978 may not work so well in 2005. The last time they used a widely unknown unproven actor in a lead role for a high profile movie was that one John Grisham movie when they used an unknown back then named Matthew McCoughnhay but that was 10 years ago. This experiment with Superman Returns is much riskier especially if Routh is to do promos or interviews for the movie and may come off as uncharismatic because of the lack of experience

NO! Superman Returns

Pirates 2.

i think this is one race thatll completely depend on how each movies recieved.

superman has lower expectations in terms of quality then pirates 2.

if supermans a good flick n surpasses somewhat low expecs, word will travel.
if pirates-while maybe being a better film then superman-doesntmeet expectations-wor5d will travel thats its disapointing, and most people will go see a flick thats better then expected rather then a film thats disappointing. supermans MASSIVE first week, combined with good word of mouth for a decent holdover, and add inprates is dissapoiting, id be willing to say pirates would NEVER be ahead of superman then. kinda like how kongs total never beat narnias, depsite more hype and being a better film. i expect one to be in the low 300s,325 ish. and one to be 375+.