The decision on 2005 nominees has been made, and between now and January 31st, we will be bombarded with some exciting stuff!

PGA Awards Ceremony January 22nd
Golden Reel Nominations Announced January 24th (no big deal, but it'll help carry us through to the 28th.)
Directors' Guild Awards Ceremony January 28th
Screen Actors' Guild Awards January 29th
Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences AMPAS Nominations Announced January 31st

For seasoned awards fans, this is what it's all about, so any first timers should get a tight grip and hang on for the ride, because the fun will really intensify now!

So, Oscar fans and curious bystanders who are listening in, this is how I see things shaping up in the top 6 categories, which are the only ones people REALLY care about. (no disrespect meant to the very important screen writers, but they aren't celebrities, mostly.)

Best Picture (4 Locks)

After a year of many hopefuls disappointing, such as Jarhead, Elizabethtown, Memoirs of a Geisha, and The New World, it became slim pickings in the Best Picture race. The first lock came to our attention when it debuted to postive response in Toronto, and that was Walk the Line. There was never any question that this film had what it took to get in easily, even though some wanted to see it fail and believe that these voting organizations like AMPAS really give a shit what they think. Some were even predicting Pride and Prejudice to beat it at the globes because they were projecting their opinions on mass groups. Be careful for those people when you spot them, because they will always steer you wrong if they lack that much objectivity for these predictions. It's also not "fighting it out over the 5th spot"... The reality was, as I've said since the positive reception in Toronto, Walk the Line represents EXACTLY what the academy is looking for in one of their BP nominees. that last comment, because I know it does apply somewhere...lol)

Other locks followed, with George Clooney's Good Night, and Good Luck emerging, but it was never a lock until minds were made up about Syriana, which had the advantage between the two on paper, but GNAGL came out of it victorious when Syriana couldn't get the same level of stellar reviews, even though it's reviews were also quite strong.

The biggest lock emerged in the form of Ang Lee's controversial Gay movie, Brokeback Mountain, which not only has a noticeable quality in all aspects, but a subject matter that academy members were sure to consider "important" enough to love. It has pounded it's way through every precursor unscathed. It has a subject matter that really puts the academy in a position of check, as denying the film a Best Picture win would reflect on them as bigots and close minded. They can't blame it on the films quality.

In the aftermath of the failed contenders that dropped like flies, a ghost came back to life in the form of excellent Crash, a film that had people talking more than any film this year. Crash held on in limbo waiting for the chance that it's early release date had denied it of, and it really wasn't much of a surprise that Crash was the beneficiary of the lack of contenders. It certainly wasn't going to be King Kong, as I preached and preached that it wouldn't be. Crash is the only film that the academy could vote as Best Picture over Brokeback Mountain, and not come out looking like the bad guy.

This is the order in which I would rank them:

1. Brokeback Mountain
2. Crash
3. Walk the Line
4. Good Night, and Good Luck

Fighting for the 5th spot are Capote and Munich (NOT Walk the Line), with Capote having the upper hand on the movie that many were referring to as a lock to win it all for some reason before the season started, even though the film hadn't been
screened. Try to remember how foolish that looks when next year's films are up for discusion. Frontrunners and locks should never be associated with films that nobody has seen a frame of.

Other films like The Constant Gardener, Syriana, and A History of Violence will get nods elsewhere, and although it isn't entirely impossible that one could slip into the 5th spot, it's unlikely that they'll get in ahead of Capote or Munich.


Best Director (3 locks)

This category is a little harder to call, but there are some locks to mention.

1. Ang Lee
2. George Clooney
3. Paul Haggis

That leaves TWO spots open for interpretation. It's being fought over by Steven Spielberg, James Mangold, Woody Allen, David Cronenberg, or Bennett Miller. My guess is that we will have two spilt film/directors, and Spielberg and Cronenberg will get in as directors, leaving Mangold and Miller to get in with their films, effectively ending any illusions about Walk the Line winning Best Picture. Mangold getting nominated would be the best thing this race could hope for.

It doesn't matter who gets nominated, because this award is Ang Lee's.

Best Actor (4 locks)

I think we have a group of actors locked in with only one questionable spot.

1. Phillip Seymour Hoffman
2. Heath Ledger
3. Joaquin Phoenix
4. David Strathairn

The final spot is being fought over by Russell Crowe, Jeff Daniels, and Terrence Howard. I think this is a case that being an African American will help Howard, as the academy will want to make their quota. Jeff Daniels also has a good shot for a career achievement nomination if Cheadle gets a nomination for Supporting Actor and fills the "black quota" there, so the last spot just depends on how things shake out. I'm going to say this is a very close race, with Howard getting the nomination. Crowe, as always, isn't out of the picture, and his work in Cinderella Man would be as deserving as anybody's.

5. Terrence Howard

Best Actress (3 locks)

This is the only race that is as over as it was last year with Hilary Swank. There is no question about Reese Witherspoon winning, as she gave THE performance of the year in Walk the Line, leaving all of her fellow actors and actresses eating her dust. She's also America's sweetheart and one of the few bankable actresses working today, so they will definitely say thank you to her on Oscar night for her brilliant turn as the late June Carter cash.

1. Reese Witherspoon
2. Felicity Huffman
3. Dame Judi Dench

Two filler spots filled and two filler spots need to be filled, while Kiera Knightly, Charlize Theron, Joan Allen, Cameron Diaz (who is off the map for some reason), and Ziyi Zhang battle it out. Kiera Knightly and Charlize Theron seem likely, but it's a moo point. Knightly seemed like a lock a short time ago.

4. Kiera Knightly
5. Charlize Theron

Best Supporting Actor (4 locks)

I see this as a 4 lock category.

1. George Clooney
2. Paul Giamatti
3. Matt Dillon
4. Jake Gyllenhaal

I've picked those top 3 since waaaayyyyyyyyyyyyy back and also saw the Gyllenhaal possibilities since I did my early Oscar preview last April. Fighting it out for the 5th spot are Don Cheadle, who is respected and was instrumental in getting Crash off the ground, Kevin Costner, who didn't help his Upside of Anger hopes with Rumor Has It, Terrence Howard for Crash, which would possibly allow Daniels to slip in for Best Actor,and William Hurt, who seems to be a favorite of many, despite his 5 minutes of screentime. I think William Hurt takes the unimportant 5th spot to match his very important 5 minutes. If not Hurt, Cheadle takes the slot, which would allow Daniels to take Howard's Best Actor slot since the African Ameican quota is now being filled by Cheadle, and Howard could get a nomination (and win) for Best Song in Hustle and Flow. Everybody get that?

This award will be going to Warner Brothers' new golden boy, George Clooney, so any poilitics involved won't matter past nominations. Giamatti is just getting a nomination makeup, but Clooney will get rewarded here for his excellent year and to make up for Brokeback Mountain beating Good Night, and Good Luck in Best Picture and Director, and Paul Haggis beating Clooney for Best Screenplay. Remember, Haggis is going to need rewarded, too, since Brokeback will also be shutting him out, despite Crash's many nominations. That's the only place to take care of Haggis for Crash's fine showing. Haggis and Clooney earned individual Oscars, as the sheer number of nominations their films will get back up. Giamatti can't top that. Neither can Dillon, Gyllenhaal, or the mysterious 5th nominee. Haggis gets taken care of with Crash's screenplay, Clooney wins his award for both his Good Night, and Good Luck and Syriana efforts with a Supporting Actor win, Hoffman takes care of Capote with a Best Actor win, and Witherspoon takes care of Walk the Line with a Best Actress win, while Brokeback Mountain get's the biggies. It's all tied in a neat package. The wealth gets spread and old debts are paid at the same time.

5. Hurt or Don Cheadle

Best Supporting Actress (3 locks)

This is the category that I'm picking a shocking upset to happen this year, as Amy Adams will be the story of the Oscars for winning.

1. Amy Adams
2. Rachel Weisz
3. Michelle Williams

This leaves two spots open that could go to Catherine Keener, Maria Bello, Shirley MacLaine, Scarlett Johannson, and Frances McDormand. I see Shirley getting a "Comeback" nomination with Catherine Keener taking the last spot to reward her busy year in quality films of different genres. This is the hardest roster for me to pick, because Bello and McDormand could just as easily take the last two spots.

As stated, I see Amy Adams shocking the world with a victory, with Rachel Weisz in a very close second. Michelle Williams is also trailing closely. This is the most interesting race in the Oscars!

4. Catherine Keener
5. Shirley MacLaine

That's how I see it, subject to change after the SAG's.

What do you mean the polls are closed?

Edit: I thought you meant for some game or predictions or something. nevermind

Hey, the rest of you can feel free to step up to the plate and say what you think AMPAS is thinking. I didn't wait on the SAG, PGA, or DGA awards before I put it in writing for everybody. It's quite possible I'll be off about everything, but I don't think I will be. I think when the nominations are announced, it'll all be covered in my first post.

I do want to hear your thoughts, too.

I actually thought what you posted was an article from Oscarwatch or The Envelope, or somewhere.

They wish.

Well, I was hoping to do some sort of write-up or short commentary for each category, but I seriously don't knwo when I'll have time. The thing is I haven't fully made up my mind on all of them yet, so here is what I have so far

For Best Picture: Brokeback Mountain, Crash, Good Night, Munich, Walk the Line with Capote as ana lternate

For Best Director: Lee, Haggis, Clooney, Spielberg, and Meirelles with spoiler being Cronerg although I wouldn't count out Bennet Miller if Capote is nominated.

Best Actor: The 4 on everyone's list and my 5th slot is still going to Terrence Howard though I'm thinking more and more a surprise is on its wau for this category. Alternate: Jeff Daniels

Best Actress: still, the hardest category to predict... Reese, Judi, Felicity and I'm going with Charlize and Keira for now. I think Laura Linney and Joan Allen are still very much alive and Zhang Ziyi isn't dead.

Best Supp. Actor: Clooney, Giamatti, Gyllenhaal, Dillion. The last spot I'll give to Bob Hoskins for now, but I'm think Terrence Howard might really get in, especilly if he misses out on a lead nom. William Hurt and Frank Langella are still kicking, but each needs big Academy love for its film and that puts Hurt on the outskirts.

Supporting Actress: Catherine Keener, Rachel Weisz, Amy Adams, Michelle Williams, and Maria Bello. I'd think Keener is the weakest link, but I think some people might be overestimating A History of Violence. There's always a critical darling that doesn't quite strike a chord with the Academy and Violence looks like a prime candidate. Alternates? McDormand and Gong Li.

I keep flip flopping between Keener or Bello getting a snub. I doubt both will make it. I'm leaning toward Keener making the cut right now, if only because she was in 3 films of quality this year. I'd honestly hate to see McDormand make it in. Shirley is the darkhourse, I think. In a ceremony with so many first time nominees, I think they would welcome a legend who just had a nice comeback.

no big deal but I was confused the same way > anyway > the oscar nomination voting is over, results on Jan 31 > I can't wait.

go Keira for one (nomination)

But will McDormand's expected TransAmerica nomination, HURT OR HAVE NO EFFECT on this supprting nomination race?

McDormand would be up for her North Country role. Felicity Huffman is iup for Transamerica. If she gets nominated for North Country, it won't matter because she's got 3 strong performances ahead of her in Adams, Weisz, and Williams. The winner of the race will come down to one of those three.

Sorry mav,but WTL is not a lock.I bet it wont even get nominated for BP.

What are you willing to bet?

Very nice analysis, so my disagreements will be short:

GNGL is in NO way behind Good Night, and Good Luck considering it has been AT LEAST just as strong everywhere and it did top NBR. GNGL is definitely #3, not #4. For instance, we all know Mangold won't get a nom, while Clooney definitely will. In fact, I would put GNGL as #2 since Crash didn't even get a GG nom.

You forget that Bob Hoskins is in contention for Best Sup. Actor as well.

Maria Bello will get a nom.

Michelle Williams is still #1 for Besdt Sup. Actress.

Other than that, I agree with the rest.

Best Picture: Brokeback, Good Night and Good Luck, Crash, Walk The Line, Munich alt:Capote, The Constant Gardener
Best Director: Ang Lee, George Clooney, Steven Spielberg, David Cronenberg, Bennett Miller alt: Paul Haggis,Fernando Meirelles
Best Actor: Philip Seymour Hoffman, Joaquin Phoenix, David Straithairn, Heath Ledger, Terrence Howard
Best Actress: Reese Witherspoon, Judi Dench, Felicity Huffman, Keira Knightley, Zhang Ziyi
Best Supporting Actor:George Clooney, Paul Giamatti,Matt Dillon, Jake Gyllenhaal, Terrence Howard(going out on a bit of a limb)
Best Supporting Actress:Catherine Keener, Rachel Weisz, Maria Bello, Michelle Williams, Amy Adams

Hurt Hurt Hurt *crosses fingers, pinches eyes closed, and holds breathe*

You don't think Bello is going to sneak in somewhere? That's hard to believe.

She's definitely in the mix. I just see a snub coming in one of the categories, and supporting actress looks like a good bet. My thinking with Shirley is a similar scenerio to Giamatti getting snubbed last year in favor of Clint Eastwood, last year's legend nominee. I don't see both her and Keener getting in, only one of them, but spots 4 and 5 are pretty much up for grabs, IMO, so it's entirely possible that Bello will make it along with Keener. I hope she does, because her's was one of the best performances of the year.

I could be completely wrong about all of the above.