The Oscar Throwdown Thread (Formerly The BFCA Thread)
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Cotton
Some days I'm a super bitch
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 7:22 pm
Posts: 6645
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 Dr. Lecter wrote: lennier wrote: Dr. Lecter wrote: Anyway, even Munich can't already make up for the weak season that it is. I hope I won't offend too many, when I say the following, but...when a movie about two gay cowboys is the sole frontrunner for Best Picture you truly know how much the award season has sucked. That's absolutely ridiculous and you know it. I can't believe you said that- and whether or not you think the movie is a quality production has absolutely nothing to do with the fact it was about gays. Shame on you Arthur. Ah, looks like I succeeded well in stirring up some trouble. Makes me proud. Anyway, looks like all of you (just as I expected) gladly misread my post. What I was trying to say that in a good year, a movie like this would have never been given the chance because of its subject. It is not conventional Oscar stuff. Only in weak years, people turn their heads to movies like this. For instance, if Eternal Sunshine was released this year, I'd bet anything it'd have a nomination secured. It doesn't matter how great some movies are, they are just always being overlooked. The fact that Brokeback Mountain is not just a frontrunner right now, but actually is the ONLY frontrunner shows how weak the year has been in general. Maybe you should have clarified that in your initial post. Even though I don't agree with you, at least I no longer feel alienated! 
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| Wed Jan 11, 2006 11:19 am |
 
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Anonymous
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Cotton wrote: John Stewart is the potential wild card in terms of the telecast's ratings. If people become as interested in seeing him as they were last year with Chris Rock, than it could definately boost the viewership level. We need to dig up with ratings for last year. I was pretty sure, even with Rock, the show dropped by about 2 million viewers from the year prior. At that was with Jamie Foxx and all his crap.
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| Wed Jan 11, 2006 11:56 am |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm
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Location: Bonn, Germany
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Cotton wrote: Dr. Lecter wrote: lennier wrote: Dr. Lecter wrote: Anyway, even Munich can't already make up for the weak season that it is. I hope I won't offend too many, when I say the following, but...when a movie about two gay cowboys is the sole frontrunner for Best Picture you truly know how much the award season has sucked. That's absolutely ridiculous and you know it. I can't believe you said that- and whether or not you think the movie is a quality production has absolutely nothing to do with the fact it was about gays. Shame on you Arthur. Ah, looks like I succeeded well in stirring up some trouble. Makes me proud. Anyway, looks like all of you (just as I expected) gladly misread my post. What I was trying to say that in a good year, a movie like this would have never been given the chance because of its subject. It is not conventional Oscar stuff. Only in weak years, people turn their heads to movies like this. For instance, if Eternal Sunshine was released this year, I'd bet anything it'd have a nomination secured. It doesn't matter how great some movies are, they are just always being overlooked. The fact that Brokeback Mountain is not just a frontrunner right now, but actually is the ONLY frontrunner shows how weak the year has been in general. Maybe you should have clarified that in your initial post. Even though I don't agree with you, at least I no longer feel alienated! My first post was meant to attract attention, though and unfortunately many people skip long paragraphs  At least now you were motivated to read the explanation. _________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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| Wed Jan 11, 2006 12:07 pm |
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Cotton
Some days I'm a super bitch
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 7:22 pm
Posts: 6645
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loyalfromlondon wrote: Cotton wrote: John Stewart is the potential wild card in terms of the telecast's ratings. If people become as interested in seeing him as they were last year with Chris Rock, than it could definately boost the viewership level. We need to dig up with ratings for last year. I was pretty sure, even with Rock, the show dropped by about 2 million viewers from the year prior. At that was with Jamie Foxx and all his crap. Last year's telecast averaged somewhere around 43 million viewers. I can't remember 2004's ratings, but I know it was waaaay up from 2003's (33 million) and 2002's (41.8 million).
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| Wed Jan 11, 2006 8:44 pm |
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Christian
Team Kris
Joined: Thu Oct 28, 2004 5:02 pm
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Location: The Damage Control Table
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Last year, overall ratings dropped, only the 18-49 demo increased.
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| Wed Jan 11, 2006 8:47 pm |
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Anonymous
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Cotton wrote: loyalfromlondon wrote: Cotton wrote: John Stewart is the potential wild card in terms of the telecast's ratings. If people become as interested in seeing him as they were last year with Chris Rock, than it could definately boost the viewership level. We need to dig up with ratings for last year. I was pretty sure, even with Rock, the show dropped by about 2 million viewers from the year prior. At that was with Jamie Foxx and all his crap. Last year's telecast averaged somewhere around 43 million viewers. I can't remember 2004's ratings, but I know it was waaaay up from 2003's (33 million) and 2002's (41.8 million). hmmm
http://money.cnn.com/2005/02/28/news/fo ... tm?cnn=yes
NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Hollywood is now 0-3 in the world of major league awards shows.
Following in the footsteps of both The Golden Globes and Grammy Awards, ratings for Sunday night's 77th Annual Academy Awards were down this year.
Some 41.5 million viewers on average watched ABC's Oscar telecast this year, a 5 percent drop from 2004, according to Nielsen Media Research. The sweep by "Million Dollar Baby," the Clint Eastwood boxing flick that won four of the top six awards, drew a 25.2 rating and a 38 share, according to figures released Monday afternoon by ABC.
A rating represents the percentage of total U.S. television households. A share represents the percentage of homes with their televisions on at the time.
The numbers, released Monday afternoon, are lower than the preliminary returns widely reported earlier in the day. Monday morning ABC, which is owned by Walt Disney (Research), said ratings from the top U.S. markets showed a 30.1 rating and a 43 share.
Nielsen ratings can fluctuate until they are finalized. The data that ABC released Monday afternoon, while not official until Tuesday, are a lot closer to the mark than the earlier results.
While Oscar ratings for the last two years are higher than they were in 2003 -- when 33 million viewers tuned in to see "Chicago" shimmy its way to a best picture statue -- viewer levels over time show that Oscar is slowly losing his Midas touch.
Academy Award viewership has been sliding since 1998, when the blowout success of "Titanic" helped draw 55 million watchers, according to Nielsen. That year, in which "Titanic" hauled in 11 Oscars, marked the ceremony's best showing since 1983.
A Rock doesn't roll
Oscar producers had high hopes that the comedian Chris Rock would, as the Oscar host, have a broad enough appeal to boost ratings. Based on the results, "I don't think (veteran Oscar hosts) Billy Crystal and Steve Martin have anything to fear," said Brad Adgate, the senior vice president of corporate research at Horizon Media, a New York marketing firm.
Still, Adgate noted that Rock didn't exactly flop. The Academy Awards is still one of the highest-rated network shows of the year -- and that, said Adgate, is likely to remain the case for a long time. Advertisers, who shelled out an average $1.6 million per 30-second spot this year, are still willing to pay top dollar despite the gradual ratings decline.
"I think (bringing in a fresh face like Rock) was worth the risk," said Adgate.
But there's cause for some concern among network executives. Both the Golden Globes, the Academy Awards' chief rival, and The Grammys, its musical counterpart, are losing viewers. So too are The Emmys, the television industry's main back-slapping event of the year.
In January, 16.8 million television watchers on average tuned in to the Golden Globes, or about 40 percent fewer than the year before. The Grammys earlier this month posted its worst showing in a decade. An estimated 18.8 million, or 28 percent less, tuned in to what is considered the world series of the music industry.
Meanwhile, last fall The Emmys scored its smallest audience since 1990.
Jack Myers, an independent media analyst and publisher of Jack Myers Report, attributes viewer apathy to both Hollywood's dearth of blockbuster hits as well as the absence of any big-name draws at the actual awards ceremonies.
"It used to be that Madonna or Michael Jackson was going to be on the music award show or Barbra Streisand was going to sing at the Academy Awards," said Myers. "Those (entertainers) are going to draw huge numbers."
But Myers noted too that declining ratings for awards shows are part of a broader falloff in network audiences. "Everything is suffering, not just the awards shows, from a slow erosion over time," said Myers.
Given the myriad forms of entertainment now available to consumers, "the excitement of these big events in general is diminished," said Myers. "There's just so much out there."
Still, like Adgate of Horizon Media, Myers thinks the Oscars remain a good bet for advertisers. Sunday night's 14.9 rating among the 18-49 demographic that advertisers covet most, while lower than last year, "is excellent," he said.
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| Wed Jan 11, 2006 8:50 pm |
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Cotton
Some days I'm a super bitch
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 7:22 pm
Posts: 6645
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Well, viewership levels have been droping for networks anyway, so 5% doesn't seem like that big a deal...especially since there wasn't a huge tentpole movie like Lord of the Rings that was sweeping every category.
And btw, the 43 million figure I mentioned was for 2004, not 2005. My mistake 
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| Wed Jan 11, 2006 9:34 pm |
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Anonymous
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meh, a drop is a drop.
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| Wed Jan 11, 2006 9:46 pm |
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Cotton
Some days I'm a super bitch
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 7:22 pm
Posts: 6645
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Christian wrote: Last year, overall ratings dropped, only the 18-49 demo increased. Probably because of Rock's presence, which probably explains why they're sticking with the concept and bringing in another host that's hip with the younger demographic.
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| Wed Jan 11, 2006 11:15 pm |
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xiayun
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:41 pm
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Location: San Mateo, CA
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BTW, I know this is very late, but I just happened to read it when browsing OW threads today. Here are the complete voting data for BFCA:
Quote: BEST PICTURE - Winner, Brokeback Mountain - 44 votes
Runners up: Crash - 27 votes / Munich - 20 votes / Cinderella Man - 17 votes / Good Night, And Good Luck - 13 votes / Capote - 10 votes / King Kong - 7 votes / Walk The Line - 5 votes / The Constant Gardener - 4 votes / Memoirs of a Geisha - 1 votes
BEST ACTOR - Winner, Philip Seymour Hoffman - Capote - 74 votes
Runners up: Heath Ledger - Brokeback Mountain - 25 votes / Joaquin Phoenix - Walk The Line - 22 votes / David Strathairn - Good Night, And Good Luck - 12 votes / Terrence Howard - Hustle and Flow - 11 votes / Russell Crowe - Cinderella Man - 4 votes
BEST ACTRESS - Winner, Reese Witherspoon - Walk The Line - 51 votes
Runners up: Felicity Huffman - Transamerica - 38 votes / Joan Allen - The Upside of Anger - 36 votes / Keira Knightley - Pride and Prejudice - 11 votes / Judi Dench - Mrs. Henderson Presents - 6 votes / Charlize Theron - North Country - 6 votes
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR - Winner, Paul Giamatti - Cinderella Man - 41 votes
Runners up: George Clooney - Syriana - 33 votes / Terrence Howard - Crash - 24 votes / Matt Dillon - Crash - 22 votes / Jake Gyllenhaal - Brokeback Mountain - 18 votes / Kevin Costner - The Upside of Anger - 10 votes
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS - Winner, Amy Adams - Junebug - 31 votes AND Michelle Williams - Brokeback Mountain - 31 votes TIE
Runners up: Maria Bello - A History of Violence - 23 votes / Rachel Weisz - The Constant Gardener - 22 votes / Frances McDormand - North Country - 21 votes / Catherine Keener - Capote - 20 votes
BEST ACTING ENSEMBLE - Winner, Crash - 98 votes
Runners up: Good Night, And Good Luck - 27 votes / Sin City - 13 votes / Syriana - 6 votes / Rent - 4 votes
BEST DIRECTOR - Winner, Ang Lee - Brokeback Mountain - 40 votes
Runners up: Paul Haggis - Crash - 24 votes / Steven Spielberg - Munich - 24 votes / Peter Jackson - King Kong - 23 votes / George Clooney - Good Night, And Good Luck - 20 votes / Ron Howard - Cinderella Man - 16 votes
BEST WRITER - Winner, Paul Haggis, Bobby Moresco - Crash - 50 votes
Runners up: Larry McMurtry, Diana Ossana - Brokeback Mountain - 28 votes / George Clooney, Grant Heslov - Good Night, And Good Luck - 26 votes / Dan Futterman - Capote - 26 votes / Noah Baumbach - The Squid and the Whale - 17 votes
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE - Winner, Wallace and Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit - 56 votes
Runners up: Corpse Bride - 46 votes / Madagascar - 17 votes / Howl's Moving Castle - 15 votes / Chicken Little - 9 votes
BEST YOUNG ACTOR - Winner, Freddie Highmore - Charlie and the Chocolate Factory - 37 votes
Runners up: Jesse Eisenberg - The Squid and the Whale - 34 votes / Owen Kline - The Squid and the Whale - 28 votes / Alex Etel - Millions - 25 votes / Daniel Radcliffe - Harry Potter & The Goblet of Fire - 23 votes
BEST YOUNG ACTRESS - Winner, Dakota Fanning - War of the Worlds - 48 votes
Runners up: Q'Orianka Kilcher - The New World - 38 votes / Georgie Henley - Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe, The - 36 votes / Emma Watson - Harry Potter & The Goblet of Fire - 13 votes / Flora Cross - Bee Season - 9 votes
BEST COMEDY MOVIE - Winner, The 40 Year Old Virgin - 55 votes
Runners up: Wedding Crashers - 36 votes / Kiss, Kiss, Bang, Bang - 24 votes / Mrs. Henderson Presents - 19 votes / The Producers: The Movie Musical - 13 votes
BEST FAMILY FILM (LIVE ACTION) - Winner, Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe, The - 56 votes
Runners up: Harry Potter & The Goblet of Fire - 38 votes / Charlie and the Chocolate Factory - 36 votes / Dreamer: Inspired by a True Story - 17 votes
BEST PICTURE MADE FOR TELEVISION - Winner, Into the West - 42 votes
Runners up: Rome - 32 votes / No Direction Home - 26 votes / Warm Springs - 21 votes
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE - Winner, March of the Penguins - 70 votes
Runners up: Grizzly Man - 27 votes / Enron: The Smartest Guys in the Room - 16 votes / Mad Hot Ballroom - 16 votes / Murderball - 15 votes
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM - Winner, Kung Fu Hustle - 44 votes
Runners up: Paradise Now - 40 votes / Cache - 19 votes / 2046 - 12 votes / Oldboy - 9 votes
BEST SONG - Winner, "Hustle and Flow", Terrence Howard - Hustle and Flow - 50 votes
Runners up: "Seasons of Love", Tracie Thoms, Jesse L. Martin and Cast - Rent - 30 votes / "A Love That Will Never Grow Old", Emmylou Harris - Brokeback Mountain - 23 votes / "Travelin’ Thru", Dolly Parton - Transamerica - 23 votes / "Same In Any Language", I Nine - Elizabethtown - 15 votes
BEST SOUNDTRACK - Winner, Walk The Line - 56 votes
Runners up: Elizabethtown - 29 votes / The Producers: The Movie Musical - 20 votes / Memoirs of a Geisha - 19 votes / Rent - 17 votes
BEST COMPOSER - Winner, John Williams - Memoirs of a Geisha - 51 votes
Runners up: Gustavo Santaolalla - Brokeback Mountain - 44 votes / Nancy Wilson - Elizabethtown - 27 votes / James Horner - The New World
Found it to be interesting read. Wonder who voted for Memoirs in Best Picture. _________________Recent watched movies: American Hustle - B+ Inside Llewyn Davis - B Before Midnight - A 12 Years a Slave - A- The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - A- My thoughts on box office
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| Sat Jan 28, 2006 12:22 am |
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Anonymous
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Jackson stayed in the thick of the BD race.
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| Sat Jan 28, 2006 12:29 am |
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zennier
htm
Joined: Sun Oct 23, 2005 2:38 pm
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Location: berkeley
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It's also nice to see quite a bit of love for Munich, which suggests its still in the running for BP or BD... hmm.
And not enough love for Kilcher. Really, really not fair 
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| Sat Jan 28, 2006 12:35 am |
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Anonymous
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lennier wrote: It's also nice to see quite a bit of love for Munich, which suggests its still in the running for BP or BD... hmm. And not enough love for Kilcher. Really, really not fair well, she got 38 votes in her Young Actress category. Only Reese had more votes with 51 in the Lead cat.
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| Sat Jan 28, 2006 12:43 am |
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zennier
htm
Joined: Sun Oct 23, 2005 2:38 pm
Posts: 10316
Location: berkeley
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loyalfromlondon wrote: lennier wrote: It's also nice to see quite a bit of love for Munich, which suggests its still in the running for BP or BD... hmm. And not enough love for Kilcher. Really, really not fair well, she got 38 votes in her Young Actress category. Only Reese had more votes with 51 in the Lead cat. She deserved to win. Best Actress, not Young Actress.
Dakota Fanning *screamed* through War of the Worlds- no talent to be seen. I'm starting to hate that movie. Ugh.
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| Sat Jan 28, 2006 12:45 am |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am
Posts: 40253
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Man, GNAGL got it's ass kicked in the voting. It wasn't even close. I mean, coming in we thought it was co-frontrunner with Brokeback. But it couldn't muster anything better than 4th and 5th places. It's a definite #3 behind Brokeback and Crash now.
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| Sat Jan 28, 2006 1:27 am |
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Rod
Extra on the Ordinary
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:50 pm
Posts: 12821
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As I was expecting Felicity was right behind Reese (kinda) and with the movie's profile increasing she might jsut catch up before oscar time!!! that would make me happy. the surprise is that Joan Allen was right behind HER. I still think she has a strong chance at a nomination. I think the best actress category will be a 2002 repeat.
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| Sat Jan 28, 2006 2:27 am |
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xiayun
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:41 pm
Posts: 25109
Location: San Mateo, CA
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I think Joan Allen not making the final list may help Huffman to pull off an upset since somehow I feel the voters behind Allen is more likely to support Huffman if she is out. The distance between Reese and Huffman is certainly not as big as we were thinking. Without Allen, there won't be significant support for any of the other nominees (probably will gather 10% of the votes combined) except for those two, and getting into a head-to-head matchup always gives underdog the best chance.
I expect the supporting actress category to be similarly tight at Oscar.
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| Sat Jan 28, 2006 3:24 am |
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Lucky
The Incredible Hulk
Joined: Sat Jan 29, 2005 6:50 am
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Phillip Seymour Hoffman's best actor win was on the level of Jamie Foxx for Ray last year.
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| Sat Jan 28, 2006 3:32 am |
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xiayun
Extraordinary
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Location: San Mateo, CA
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Oh, also it's sad to see the two young actors from The Squid and the Whale split their votes and allow Highmore to win.
_________________Recent watched movies: American Hustle - B+ Inside Llewyn Davis - B Before Midnight - A 12 Years a Slave - A- The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - A- My thoughts on box office
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| Sat Jan 28, 2006 3:35 am |
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Raffiki
Forum General
Joined: Fri Oct 22, 2004 12:14 am
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xiayun wrote: Oh, also it's sad to see the two young actors from The Squid and the Whale split their votes and allow Highmore to win. Exactly what I thought. 
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| Sat Jan 28, 2006 3:44 am |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
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Location: Bonn, Germany
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Wow, Walk the Line really didn't get many Best Picture votes....Cinderella Man got three times as many.
_________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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| Sat Jan 28, 2006 8:22 am |
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