I think someone here proved that a film doing business at maximum capacity could make like $170-$180m in a weekend, I'm not sure.

Wow, you guys are on a serious overpredicting streak. DP07, I don't understand how you can think Superman will open over 100 million and then Pirates will open over 160 million the next weekend. Even if Superman has a MAMMOTH drop to 40 million, that would mean over 200 million from the top two movies alone of the Pirates weekend. You really think it's possible to have an aggragate weekend of 250 million or so??? That, IMO, is just not possible yet.

Besides, you keep saying the record can be broken by more than the 37% that Batman broke it by. How? I see absolutely no evidence to support this. Batman was a phenom when it came out, and it's arrival coincided with an increase in theaters and screens, meaning there was more capacity to fill. The same thing happened in 2001. Between last year and this year, however, no such change has occured to indicate that such an increase is possible. Unless if Pirates opens in 8-10 screens per theater (which is NOT going to happen, especially is Sups, as you predict, is a 100 million grosser the weekend before) it simply does not have the capacity required to make 160 million. It is, in other words, impossible, because even if every single show, everywhere, the entire weekend, is sold out it still won't make it.

I do think a 250m weekend is possible (and I do think Superman will drop to around 40m).

Return of the Jedi broke the record by 60%. Like this one, by that time that was a weak record that was just waiting to be broken. If Harry Potter did not happen open when it did SM would have broken the record by 59%. All I'm asking for is 41% higher then a record that for all practical purposes has already been broken.

The record will be smashed 140m+ for Pirates 2. Sups has 100m+ in the bag

Okay, who wants to see Pirates 2 that much? Harry Potter was the movie to see in 2001. Spider-Man was the movie to see in 2002.

Pirates 2 is the sequel to a fun movie a lot of people liked. It's got Back to the Future 2 written all over it.

I could see 140 million. Star wars opened to 50, and I think that it is impossible for the hype to be bigger, however, due to opening on Friday instead of thursday, I could see maybe 53 million on Friday. I could see Saturday at around 50, which would still be a large increase over the previous record of 44 by Shrek II. Then Sunday would drop to maybe 40 million, which would be 143. Any more, I think is a pipe dream. But hey, it would be AWESOME to see, as I'm both a box office, and a POTC fan!!

Friday - 62m (12m at midnight)
Saturday - 54m
Sunday - 46m - Pirates tended to drop around 18% on Sundays in July, and massive blockbusters tend to hold up better then usual on their first Sunday.

-Amazing DVD sales; over 230m was listed at the end of 2003,

13.3 million copies sold for the #3 highest selling DVD of the year. Impressive, but not earth-shattering. It came in five million units behind Finding Nemo.

As for your applause report, I don't doubt it -- but on my end, I go to a theater that gets applause quite often, and there wasn't a peep heard for Dead Man's Chest.

The Pirates franchise doesn't have that yet, at least I don't think so. It's a movie that everyone loved, but people aren't going to be absolutely bonkers over it's opening. With an action-adventure movie, you don't have the same type of diehard cult fanbase that enabled SM and SW to reach so far.

I beleive Nemo was released earlier too.

But DVD sales is not just hte important thing about sequels. Rentals are huge. I mean, remember, a movies auidence is not the people who saw it in theaters or those who own the DVD. It's just the people who have seen the film period.

Pirates of the Caribbean grossed $39 million in rentals, #39 the year it came out.

Then IMDB's wrong (which isn't exactly rare). videobusiness.com has it at $39 million.

Initial rush. Seriously, who's more reliable on the subject: IMDb, which is updated by its users, or a website that's dedicated to tracking sales and rental numbers?

I really think we are going to see a hyped blockbuster the likes of which we have not seen since at least TPM. I think over 525m is possible which would make it the most impressive hyped blockbuster in at least 2 decades IMO.