Well, I don't think this one needs an introduction, so here we go...

1. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest - $107.3 million
2. X-Men 3 - $93.9 million
3. Mission: Impossible 3 - $76 million
4. Superman Returns - $67.4 million
5. Cars - $65.2 million
6. Ice Age 2: The Meltdown - $60.7 million
7. Click - $54.1 million
8. Happy Feet - $51.5 million
9. The Da Vinci Code - $49.6 million
10. Casino Royale - $41.9 million

107m? heh, it's not simply that you think 160m impossible, you underestimate POTC 2.

1. POTC 2 - 162m
2. Superman - 109m
3. X3 - 96m
4. The Da Vinci Code - 89m
5. Over the Hedge - 62m
6. Ice Age 2 - 59m
7. Click - 57m
8. Happy Feet - 53m
9. Flushed Away - 45m
10. MI 3 - 43m

After you get past the top few it looks really weak. I'm sure something unexpected will open with 50m+ though.

The Da Vinci Code is not nearly as popular as Harry Potter to open that bhig.

You underestimate M:I-3 (big time) and Cars.

Um, sales are not much lower. Plus, 89m-90m today is not the same as it was in 2001, so I think the comparision only goes so far.

MI-3 is generally being ridiculously overpredicted. With the WOM from the last one there is no reason it should even reach 150m.

Cars will have legs, but the opening will be soft. It won't work as well with children as the usual animals. Why did Robots underperform? Why did The Incredibles fail to near Nemo? Plus, Ice Age 2 and especially Over the Hedge will consume much of the demand for CG films by that time.

Yet The Incredibles opened to $70+ million and sold over 17 million discs.. Robots opened to $36 million despite not being Pixar. This is Pixar, an opening of over $45 million is guaranteed.

The Incredibles still had a great concept to sell, it had some extremely clever humor come across in the trailers (PIXAR's best IMO), and it surprisingly was a fantastic action movie (I never though an animated film would have such great action). Cars has what? Just the PIXAR name? I overestimated The Incredibles, and underestimated Nemo by only 20m (I had one of the highest predictions for that one), so I don't think I underestimate PIXAR. This is just another Bug's Life.

Robots had 36m, but not right after another CG film was released. Plus, I think summer will take some of the gross from the the weekends to the weekdays. Something near 40m would be fine for Cars IMO.

I predict 10 films over 200m this year 4 over 300m, and 20 films over 100m

1. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Mans Chest - 160m / 485m
2. Superman Returns - 118m / 378m
3. X-Men III - 104.5m / 262m
4. Mission Imposible III - 82m / 204m
5. The Da Vinci Code - 80m / 306m
6. Happy Feet - 68m / 326m
7. Ice Age II - 65m / 220m
8. Cars - 64m / 245m
9. Over the Hedge - 54m / 215m
10. Click - 54m / 160m
11. Podesian - 50m / 140m
12. Flushed Away - 46m / 180m
13. Casino Royal - 42m / 156m
14. Eragon - 42m / 201m
15. SAw3 - 40m / 104m

1. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest - $105 million
2. X-Men 3 - $90 million
3. Mission: Impossible 3 - $70 million
4. Cars - $65 million
5. Superman Returns - $60 million
6. The Da Vinci Code - $55 million
7. Ice Age 2: The Meltdown - $55 million
8. Click - $50 million
9. Poseidon - $50 million
10. Happy Feet - $48 million
11. Over the Hedge - $45 million
12. Casino Royale - $44 million
13. Flushed Away - $40 million
14. Date Movie - $40 million

1. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest - $110 Mio.
2. X-Men 3 - $81 Mio.
3. Ice Age 2 - $67 Mio.
4. Mission: Impossible 3 - $60 Mio.
5. Cars - $54 Mio.
6. Superman Returns - $49 Mio.
7. The Da Vinci Code - $47 Mio.
8. Click - $44 Mio.
9. Casino Royale - $42 Mio.
10. Poseidon - $39 Mio.

There are way too many CGI movies 06.

Maybe it's just me, but I really don't feel either Poseidon or Over the Hedge. I think Poseidon will struggle to open with $35 million, unless the marketing campaign is terrific.

Bring out 2007, it seems boring this year.

Anyhow sticking with the theme

1. POTC2 120 million
2. X-3 95 million
3. Ice Age 2 70 million
4. Superman Returns 65 million
5. MI3 58 million (huge drop the following week)
6. Davinci Code 55 million

I think people are underestimating Poseidon. This looks like 2006's The Day After Tomorrow. It actually has one of the same stars too.

And PoTC2 with $160 million?

Even if it opens in 4200 theaters, that is an average of over $38,000 per theater, which I'm sorry is not going to happen.

Its DAT without the cool special effects, takes place in more of a micro environment as opposed to DAT that takes place more globally. Looks boring as hell unless a cable snaps and kills everyone onboard like Ghost Ship

Superman Returns - $150m 3 day
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest - $90m
X-Men 3 - $80m 3 day and $98m 4day
Mission: Impossible 3 - $70m
Happy Feet - $65m
Cars - $65m
Over the Hedge - $60m
The Da Vinci Code - $55m
Ice Age 2: The Meltdown - $50m
Click - $40m

POTC 2 will not have a 3 day 160mill opening,not even close,you guys are crazy!

1.Superman returns:90.0
2.POTC 2:85.0
3.X-3:80.0
4.MI3:62.0
5.Cars:60.0

Once again, unless average ticket prices increase 50-75%, that high of an opening weekend just isn't going to happen.

We'll see Jeff.

Wow, you guys are on a serious overpredicting streak. DP07, I don't understand how you can think Superman will open over 100 million and then Pirates will open over 160 million the next weekend. Even if Superman has a MAMMOTH drop to 40 million, that would mean over 200 million from the top two movies alone of the Pirates weekend. You really think it's possible to have an aggragate weekend of 250 million or so??? That, IMO, is just not possible yet.

Besides, you keep saying the record can be broken by more than the 37% that Batman broke it by. How? I see absolutely no evidence to support this. Batman was a phenom when it came out, and it's arrival coincided with an increase in theaters and screens, meaning there was more capacity to fill. The same thing happened in 2001. Between last year and this year, however, no such change has occured to indicate that such an increase is possible. Unless if Pirates opens in 8-10 screens per theater (which is NOT going to happen, especially is Sups, as you predict, is a 100 million grosser the weekend before) it simply does not have the capacity required to make 160 million. It is, in other words, impossible, because even if every single show, everywhere, the entire weekend, is sold out it still won't make it.

That's a good point, actually. But, yeah, it's impossible for Superman Returns and Pirates of the Caribbean to both open to $100+ million back to back.

I could actually envision two 100 million openers in a row as Longest Yard and Madagascar combined for almost 100 million last year after Star Wars' 108 million, so I guess it's possible. But a 100 and a 160 grosser in a row? Impossible.

Although I may not agree with Superman and Pirates getting back to back 100 million. Techinically for other movies its not impossible. Ghostbusters2 and Batman opened to over 25 million back in 1989 (a week apart from each other) when 25 million openings were as rare as 100 million openers

I think someone here proved that a film doing business at maximum capacity could make like $170-$180m in a weekend, I'm not sure.

Yeah, I had brought it up awhile back, and I think that's about what we estimated it to be.

pirates-115
superman-100
xmen-90
mi3-70
posiedon-60
da vinci-50

that was a eier summer:

may:indiana breaks record with 29 million
june16th:ghostbuster breaks it with 29.9
june 23rd:batman breaks it with 40.