So, one of the big debates is whether the slump of 2005 will continue into 2006, or whether 2006 will recover, with such films as X3, M.I. 3, Cars and The Da Vinci Code all set for release, just to name a few...

I thought it would be fun to create a thread comparing weekend to weekend to see how the Box Office is doing. It start this upcoming weekend, where we are up against a pretty strong January weekend last year, that had White Noise open to over 20 million dollars.

Top 12 Totals (in millions)

2005 2006 change

Jan 6-8 97.7 106.6 +9%

Jan 13-15 117.8 101.7 - 13.7%

Jan 20-22 83 94.1 + 13.3%

Jan 27-29 104.4 100.1 - 4.2%

Feb 3-5 87.7 81.8 - 6.8%

Feb 10-12 103.6 102.8 - 1%

Feb 17-19 115.8 110.7 - 4.6%

Feb 24-26 104.4 100. 3 -4%

Mar 3-5 109.1 83.1

Mar 10-12 103.4 93.3

Mar 17-19 105.3 92.3

Mar 24-26 89.4 97.8

Mar 31- Apr 2 97.6 132.1

Apr 7-9 78.8 102.8

Apr 14-16 74.1 109.9

Apr 21-23 82.3 100.2

Apr 28-30 80.1 90.2

May 5-7 78.5 99.7

May 12-14 94.5 85.0

May 19-21 157.6 154.9

May 26-28 178.2 188.4

June 2-4 126.9 129.2

June 9-11 138.1 148.8

June 16-18 129.6

June 23-25 117.7

June 30- July 2 133.7

July 7-9 139.5

July 14-16 155.7

July 21-23 129.2

July 28-30 112

Aug 4-6 103

Aug 11-13 104.7

Aug 18-20 98.8

Aug 25-27 83.1

Sept 1-3 78.1

Sept 8-10 73.5

Sept 15-17 70.6

Sept 22-24 87.9

Sept 29-1 75.3

Oct 6-8 88.2

Oct 13-15 71.6

Oct 20-22 70.2

Oct 27-29 87

Nov 3-5 119.6

Nov 10-12 111.3

Nov 17-19 172.3

Nov 24-26 149.5

Dec 1-3 76.2

Dec 8-10 115.7

Dec 15-17 122.5

Dec 22-24 100.7

Dec 29-31 131.0

Interesting idea.

I think it'll be tough to top the same weekend last year, though, considering that Fockers had a $28.5 million weekend and White Noise had $24.1 million.

I think 2006 might just edge out Jan, and the same could happen with Feb. March and April can be beaten. May will be better enough over the first two weeks, however the SW-Madagascar-Longest Yard combo from last year won't allow for a huge gain. June will be better as well, as this year has far more depth. July however, is where we can really see a massive gain. Last year the month was sunk by Stealth and The Island, this year we have Superman and POTC 2. August, Sept. and Oct. will probably also go for 2006 if only because of their weakness last year. I'm not sure about Nov. and Dec. though since they seem to lack the mega-blockbusters of this year.

Spring will definetly be a whole lot stronger than last spring. Look at the schedule.

And the first weeks of May should absolutely crush this past year with M I 3 opening

Hmmm. January and February this year looks pretty good on the whole. It doesn't look as much like a dumping ground as it usually does, the films seem a lot more diverse and there seems to be some solid potential hits in there... Freedomland, Firewall, Madea's Family Reunion, The Matador, Hostel, Underworld, and maybe even Curious George.

March and April are full of films that can go either way.

As others have stated, May looks much better than 2005, even though there is no Sith about. Mission Impossible, Da Vinci, Hedge, X3, and maybe Posiedon should easily fill the void.

Cars is pretty much the story for June. Maybe Click, but I'm not good predicting Adam Sandler movies. Superman can almost be considered July (and fills the "Batman Begins" slot), which also has Pirates, Lady in the Water, and Miami Vice which could perform like Collateral.

August looks pathetic at the moment. September looks more "arty" than it usually does. October is gearing up to be a STRONG horror month this year.

November is interesting because we are facing a 3 way animation fest (again), I expect Foodfight to be the big loser here. Santa Clause 3 will probably perform like the previous two. Casino Royale... I just don't know at the moment. Happy Feet should rule Thanksgiving with Royale, but I wouldn't expect it to do Potter like numbers.

Likewise, December doesn't look like it has anything comparable to Narnia and Kong.

May 5-7 78.5

mi3 could make that alone.

2006 is Going to rebound HUGELY.....

( films with potential for 150+ million+ in capitols,250 million in " ")

May 06' features "MI3","POSEIDON",just my luck,"DA VINCI CODE", "X3",and OVER THe hedge.
May 05' featurs kingdom of heaven,house of wax, monster in law, "STAR WARS", LONGEST YARD MADAGASCAR

may 06 will maul may 05.

june 06 features "CARS":, the omen, garfield 2, CLICK, "SUPERMAN RETURNS"
june 05 had: cinderella man, MR AND MRS SMITH BATMAN BEGINS herbie bewitched WAR OF THE WORLDS

this will be closer but supeman/cars/click should combine for roughly 650 million+ batman.smith/war combined for 620.

june wins.

July 06 features "PIRATES OF THE CARIBEAN 2", some comedies that top 100 million, LADY IN WATER, MIAMI VICE
July 05 had FANTASTIC FOUR WILLYWONKA WEDDIG CRASHERS the island stealth

pirates alone will take care of fantastic four and willy wonka,and lady/vice will combine for atleast 225 million,about 100 million more then needed.

july wins

charlottes web-if it stays the lone christmas family film-could really REALLY break out. perhaps over 200 million. and happy feets goin to be very big.

The summer will gain heavily on 2005, but I think that the holiday season will suffer big time in comparison. Nothing will come close to Kong/Narnia/Potter. The spring will be almost equal, with Ice Age 2 being the megahit instead of Hitch.

Good thread Bryan! And alot of good posts where everyone seems to be in general agreeance.

I think the strong holdovers and expansions plus a few new hits will keep January 06 close to 05.

February probably wont match the Hitch/Constantine combo but it wont be a big blow.

March should be stronger this year and April the same as 05 (April was good last year with Sin City, Interoreter, Sahara and Amityville).

Early May should see huge gains and late May should hold its own against Sith/Madagascar/Yard of 05 - even if it falls a bit short.

June will see huge inroads thanks to Cars and another Fast and Furious. Then Click should be able to counter 05's Mr and Mrs Smith while Superman will maybe cover Batman.

That leaves POTC2 to cover off WOTW and then some while Miami Vice, Monster House, Dupree and LAdy in the Water should beat out FF4 easily.

That leaves August as the weak month of the summer and at this stage will prob lose to 05.

September/October should beat 05.

November may fall a little short as will December - but not by a huge amount.


So overall - i think 06 should beat or atleast equal 05 in every month bar August, November and December at this stage.

Well, you can't get any better than Harry Potter 4, Narnia and King Kong.....though Harry Potter 2, Die Another Day and Two Towers wasn't a bad year....

It's going to be hard this holiday season, with only Charlotte's Web, Happy Feet, Casino Royale the only possibilities for $150m+ grosses.

Whether 2006 can match 2005 comes down to the Spring/Summer takings, especially the months of May-July.......though i must say, August is dispicably bad....

Matchups are as follows:

Feb/March/April - Hitch/Robots/Pacifier/Ring Two/Constantine vs. Ice Age 2/Scary Movie 4/Final Destination 3
May - ROTS/Madagascar/Longest Yard vs. MI3/X-Men3/DaVinci/Poseidon/OvertheHedge
June - Batman/Mr&MrsSmith vs. Cars/F&TF3/Garfield 2
July - WOTW/Wedding/Charlie/Fantastic4 vs. Pirates/Superman/LadyInWater/Miami Vice

2006 May is looking very strong (most important month for sure), though i'm afriad June won't produce a double whammo like Batman/Smith.....July could go either way, the 4 blockbusters of July combine to around $800m, not an easy total to beat...even with Pirates in the mix.

Sorry, just some thoughts....

Arch - you forgot Click in June. That is potential for $150-$200m.

However - I forgot Charlie and Choc and Wedding Crashers. Therefore I think the second half of July and all of August will fall behind 05.

In the end it will be close. We arent looking at 2001-2004 numbers im afraid.

For Winter to match Potter Narnia and Kong I put up

Happy Feet / Eragon / The Barnyard / The Sant Clause 3 / Charlots Web

68m|326m / 42m|201m / 24m|180m / 26m|140m / 16m| 145m

Indeed, it will take thease 5 to match those 3

Although we don't have a Star Wars this May, we have enough potential hits to make up for the the big films of May (Sith, The Longest Yard, Madagascar). M:I-3, The Da Vinci Code, Over the Hedge, Poseidon, and X-Men 3 will cover it.

June will be much better this year, I think. The only two big films out of June were Mr. and Mrs. Smith and Batman Begins last year (and War of the Worlds, if you count the last two days). Click, The Break-Up, and Cars will certainly make up for it.

July will also be much better this year. Although last July had three $200+ million films (including Worlds), the rest of the films (other than F4) were weak. This year, Superman Returns, Pirates, Dupree, Lady in the Water, Miami Vice, Super Ex-Girlfriend, and Monster House are all potential hits to make up for it.

August... ouch. Unless World Trade Center surprises, I'm not sure we'll have a good August.

BJs July Line up

Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Mans Chest / You Me and Dupree / Miami Vice

160m| 485m 28|186 32| 116m

BJs June Line up:

Superman Returns / Cars / Click / The Breakup

118m|378m / 64m|245m / 54m|160m / 24m| 125m

2005 = Hammered.

BJs May Line up:

The Da Vinci Code / X-Men III / Over the Hedge / Mission Imposible III / Podesian

80m|306m / 104m|262m / 54m|215m / 82m|204m / 50m|140m

For Winter, don't forget about Disney's CGI Meet the Robinsons, Will Smith's Pursuit of Happyness, Ben Stiller's Night at the Museum, and Will Ferrell's fantasy comedy Stranger Than Fiction.

And I think Sin City 2 is coming this summer.

a great way to start the new year!

up 9% for the weekend, at 106 million.
Hopefully this will be the trend for the year!!

Can we keep it going next weekend? The long weekend was strong last year...

I think this years holdovers and expansions are stronger - but next weekends openers will be a bit weaker than last years. It should be close. Maybe $10m difference at most. All January has to do is stay even with 05 as Jan 05 was rather strong. Jan 06 is doing way better than Jan 04 btw!

I am not sure.. Coach Carter opened big, but Electra disappointed last year.. this year's crop isn't that bad either...

Glory Days and Last Holiday should both open decently, as should hoodwinked... not sure about Tristan, but the Brokeback expansion next weekend should help as well... if it is lucky, it could be looking at close to 10 million for the 4-day....

it should be close, but I give the edge to '06

Yeah i think it'll be fairly even next weekend, still a great start to the year and a great thread!

we should win this weekend again....

As expected this weekend will be down on last year. The Friday top 10 were down 23% on last year.

Thats not a totally bad thing though. Last year as exceptionally strong. Next week should fall back in 2006's favour.

well, a mis-step this weekend, we should be able to make up for it next weekend...