I still don't agree. I will wait for a more reliable source....

I also do think that the DVD release date will be delayed. They will still sell just as month a month later, but this month at theatres would do the movie very god as well. If they release it on DVD that early, they will play a risky game. Brokeback Mountain isn't Ray or Seabiscuit, I don't see it selling that well, even if it's a heavy contender.

4-day numbers are up now...

Brokeback made 4.8 million for the 4 days, for a $17 700 average. Pretty Good. Munich was the only other film to score an average over 10 000$.

Nobody more reliable than The Digital Bits when it comes to DVD news. I think it is kind of silly of you not to at least consider it.

http://www.avixion.ca/news.php?id=6773

Think about it this way. Brokeback is a potential BP winner... people go out to their Blockbuster and there isn't enough copies. So they end up buying it because they want to see it.

Worked for Ray.

For now, until Focus decides to move it, Brokeback's DVD release is March 7.

I am not saying the date is fake. I am saying it will be delayed.

That's definately possible, but I really don't see why.

Focus wants people to see this, probably to limit any potential backlash against it if it were to win. They want it to be out there and accessible... that's what their whole campaign has been about.

Brokeback will get 1500ish theaters (I'm guessing) by the end of January, will do its chunk of business after the Globes/Oscar nominations, and will drop off around February, and will be "reborn" through DVD in March. Focus will probably double dip and do a more expanded Oscar edition in the summer sometime.

I don't see why that's such a bad strategy. A History of Violence gets a March 14th release date to capitalize on that news for the same reason. Good Night will be out on DVD around then. Lost in Translation was released before the Oscars in 2003.

Heh, Focus will never give it 1,500 theatres. None of their movies ever got that many, I think.

Heck they never even gave Lost in Translation over 1,000 theatres.

They plan to have BBM in around 500 theatres over the MLK weekend. Probably at around 900 theatres by the end of January. Their original plans were to have it in over 300 (!) theatres by the end of January.

Yeah, 1500ish is a lot for them. But Pride got 1335 theaters at one time so it wouldn't be unusual.

I don't think that it is a good stratedgy at all. Million Dollar Baby sat at 64 million when it won the Oscar last year. It made it all the way to 100 million. Brokeback Mountain has just as much potential if it wins Best Picture (and it's got a decent shot!) I don't know why you think business will die down in February. It's major expansion isn't until the final week of January. The Globes and Oscar noms will propell it right up until Oscar night, and it's has great potential after that. Good Night and Good Luck died at the box office long ago, so it isn't a good comparison. Ditto for a history of violence. Brokeback is coming off a 17 000 avg weekend, with many expansions ahead. It is still very much alive in theatres. It's not even comparable to Ray, because that film opened wide in October and had already been played out, and that's why the DVD release was after the Oscars.

I agree with Lecter as well. Whether they release the DVD March 7th or May 7th, it will still sell the same number, if not more, because it will have all of March and Arpil in theatres, and will be building even more word of mouth.

P&P is probably their most accessible movie so far (and yet I think they messed up its release a little bit as well, expansion-wise). Actually the only movie I think Focus handled well so far is Brokeback Mountain. It goes into 400 theatres next weekend and into 500+ theatres the weekend after that.

I agree, Pride and Prejudice should have been a more gradual increase in theatres... at least they learned their lesson with it, and will expand Brokeback in a good fashion. If this thing wins a lot of Golden Globes, and many Oscar nominations, I can guarentee they will release it into 1500 + theatres. Just because it is unprecidented for them doesn't mean it can't happen... we'll see though...

And after having finally seen the movie this past weekend, I have to agree that this film is a lot more accessable to mainstream audiences then some people on here are thinking.

Million Dollar Baby was also a Clint Eastwood film fronted by a studio that has major muscle. As Lecter just said, Brokeback will have only 900 theaters compared to Million Dollar's 2000 by the time Oscar nominations came out.

The release patterns between Brokeback and Million Dollar are completely different.


Business always dies down. Sure, when Nominations and Globes come out it will get a boost, but between January 21stish and mid-March there isn't a ton of award business that has significant impact.


Where it will also be fighting a bit with maybe Munich, Match Point, whoever gets a nomination.


It's making its money, but I'm not sure that will translate into top 5s throughout January and February. It's been a very specifically targeted release, and it looks like it is going to remain that way. It is no doubt, extremely successful for what it is, but on the whole, EVEN if it wins Best Picture the chances of it (with the DVD release and with the lowish theater count) outgrossing Million Dollar Baby are quite, quite small.


They will sell much, much more on March 7th than they ever would have on May 7th. Unfortunately, there will be no possible way to judge who is correct.

It won't have April because it will be out on DVD although I'm sure it won't drop off the face of the planet. I think I have provided significant enough evidence so that we can assume that that is the case for now. If they delay the release, they are likely to delay it by weeks, not months.

i wonder if the new markets are highly responsible for keeping the PTA high or if there is still high demand in those initial cities.

Does anyone know where to get gross breakdown by market?

A lot of those new theaters are expanded theater counts in the same city. Not necessarily new markets.

I really can't agree with your "evidence". First of all, just because Million Dollar Baby was released by a big studio doesn't mean that a film release by a small studio can't find the same success... I said nothing about it matching it's gross, just it's dame pattern. If MDB could make 40% of it's gross after the awards, I think Brokeback can as well.
Clint Eastwood is no more a renowned film maker than Ang Lee, so I don't see why that matters...

Secondly, you have to get your fact straight. Oscar Nominations are announced on Tuesday, January 31st.
"Nominations for this year's Oscars are due to be announced on Tuesday, Jan. 31 at 5:30 a.m. Pacific times"
http://www.showbizdata.com/contacts/pic ... OTS_GO_OUT

I hardly think that the buzz will die down in just a day or two. It will indeed carry it through out the month of Feburary.

It is already competeing with Munich, I don't see why it should effect the movie more then than it is now. Munich is even in a wider release then Brokeback at the moment. I don't see how it will have much of an effect....

Andaroo, your examples (LIT, Ray, A history of violence) are all for movies released in september/october, not december.

And still, the same people that you say won´t go to see BBM at theaters, can wait a couple of months before doing it. It´s ont like they are only going to be in a rush tos ee it in march, you know.

The news of the DVD release date don´t make sense cause,if normally that window of four months is quite small, for a movie that is a limited release, It is pretty insane. Maybe they´ll do it (Is there any confirmation of the news out there?) but It would be silly, methinks.

Well I havn't really kept up with the discussion, but I'd still like to give my two cents. I think Foccus has done a good job so far with the expansions. If they want a good shot at winning some Oscar gold and having a healthy run, they should keep expanding it slowly to ensure that it peaks at the right time. One of the reasons why I'm rooting for it isn't just because it's a great movie, but the idea of a movie like this receiving mainstream success is far more compelling than the standard "will Kong hit $300 million"-type arguments that have always been rampant in every BO forum.

it would be pretty insane, considering that it would be released on DVD just one month after it's wide release!
That would be unprecidented!

The problem is, Lecter and I have provided you with dates and stats, consistent with Focus' history, yet you still want to believe that it's getting a massive wide release. There is no counter evidence to support your claim, just hope and throw our stats out the window based on your belief. You will believe whatever you want to believe, I can't change that, but my respect for your thougths on Brokeback at the moment is nil.


Brokeback will be out on DVD by the time of the Academy Awards, based on credible sources. Your failure to admit that at least *could* be the release date is not letting you see the alternatives. Do you not think that a DVD release on March 7th would significantly cut in to Brokeback's potential box office take?


Clint Eastwood is a much easier sell to the US than Ang Lee can possibly ever be. Million Dollar Baby, although controversial itself, was also a much easier sell to the US.


I missed a date. I apologize. But I'm not trying to create phantom stats. I didn't invent the DVD release date.

DVDFile.com

Another credible source of DVD information states March 7.
http://www.dvdfile.com/index.php?option ... &Itemid=15

a credible source to me would be the studio or a press release...

They've got to be kidding..

That's the Tuesday after Oscar. Focus has to be insane to pull the movie out from theaters at that time.

I agree. A summer DVD release a la American Beauty or Million Dollar Baby would be prime I think.

I don't know many stats, but I'd say it would be unheard of for a December released, much less a December limited-released film posied to be the OScar front-runner till the end, win or no win on the final night, woul be released days after the OScar telecast.

Actually, it's quite uncomparable since they moved the Oscars up a month a couple years ago.