Faulty reasoning - the results should be just the opposite...

BTW, Christmas day is going to be huge for Munich - it's a traditional day for Jewish moviegoers to partake in the silver screen...

Anyone think maybe we don't understand exactly how this week and weekend actually work? I mean Xiayun was telling us on Thurs. that movies would go up 60-40%, HP4 was the only movie able to top 20% and just barely. Most movies barely went up that much on Friday. BBM didn't seem to go up with a major expansion (could be an accounting problem and didn't get included). All of these movies might have a great Sunday and Monday that don't look possible from Friday's numbers, because we don't know how movies act when Christmas falls on a Sunday. I have yet to see anyone explain how movies increased and dropped in '94 or the 80's when this last happened. Usually, we have a pattern within at least a decade and have daily numbers, this time we don't. I just get the feeling that we don't know what we are looking at... Kong is still headed for a rough weekend unless a miracle happens. However, all the numbers could look much better by Tues. than they do today.

Oh, come on! You must know there is a difference whether you have a showing every 3 hours or every 30 to 45 minutes.

Uhh...I heard of plenti of theatres in which Brokeback Mountain is playing on two screens, in some even on four screens.

You're right about screening length, but as per the part of your post I quoted - I was referring to your assertion that the average would be lower because "the movie is playing in just one auditorium per theater instead of multiple screens" - if it is playing on less screens, all the people who want to see it will be in that one auditorium, thus increasing the average number of people per screen. The rest of your post was correct - you just got that one part bass ackwards...

But the average is dependent on capacity. 4 showings a day in a 200 seater - that's a capacty of 800 tickets, 4 showings in 3 200 seaters - that's a capacity of 2,400 tickets... - The movie with the most capacity should have the bigger average, right? Unfortunately the studios report per theater average not per screen average

So you also think that Narnia is doing poorly if it doesn't get $360 million (Narnia budget is $180 million) at the domestic boxoffice?

If that's true, I stand corrected - but it is an absolutely meaningless statistic then...

Yep, it is! Even more so when considering the fact that until the late 80s the studios were reporting per screen averages and switched to per theater average in 1989/1990/1991. So it's always a little bit unfair when people compare averages from different decades. Just one example: RETURN OF THE JEDI opened on 1,002 screens in 836 theaters. Because everyone reported screens back than all the computers and all the websites quote the 1,002 "theaters" instead of the real 836 theaters...

Heh Its funny to see the same people who were adamant that Narnia would be dissapointing and Kong would be a massive success suddenly saying "Well, narnia always was going to win this weekend because....INSERTEXCUSEHERE"

Kong easily has the weekend. It could double Narnia's gross on Sunday.

so any predictions on when BOM will post #s?

I say 5 mins til midnight

they are getting more and more pathetic every day

heh, laugh now. Christmas is always a very good day for adult films, but not for family movies. They can have small increases, but they can also have massive drops. The Harry Potter movies (a great comparision to Narnia) tend to increase 13% on that day. Meanwhile other films tend to increase over 100% (some nearly increase 200%). So, while both will likely drop near 40% on Saturday (probably a bit of a smaller drop for narnia). Kong should increase to 10m, if not 12m. Narnia will be near 6m.

I think it just comes down to Brokeback Mountain having more of a limited audience. Pretty simple.

Friday numbers from The-Numbers.com -

http://www.the-numbers.com/charts/today.html

MAJOR UPDATE!!!

Producers - $24,907 (11%) $4,151 PTA $268,158 Total

!!!!!11!!!!!11

Kong made $5.58m on Thursday and D & J made $3.92.

I posted this on Thursday after Wed. numbers


It didn't unless the estimates are way off. Kong went up 50% and Narnia went up 36% Kong actually had the 2nd highest increase in the top 10.


So, DP7 could be right. I think he is, but my track record with Kong has not been so hot. Narnia should not make nearly as much the next three days as Kong based on Friday's number.

The number's thursday kong number is wrong,kong was higher than 5.4,it did about $5,575,000

narnia went up 42%.

Not according to TheNumbers.com. It says a 36% jump to $7.9 mil. I believe that is what he was referring to.

Either way, still really good. I'm waiting for BOM numbers.

I also hope DP07 is right, hehe.

PEACE, Mike.

Not According to The Numbers