I think we need a thread that doesn't deal with King Kong for a change.

So far this has been a record-breaking month for PTA's with Brokeback Mountain and Memoirs of a Geisha opening to incredibly high PTA's last week in limited release.


So they got me wondering what PTA Munich will open to next weekend. One of the frontrunners for the upcoming Oscars, Munich opens in est. 525 theatres on Friday. I think we're in for pretty big numbers. Most people are aware of this movie being one of the Oscar contenders this year and good reviews it is receiving will help as well. It is also a Steven Spielberg movie and those usually simply do very well. He delivered his lowest grossing movie since 1997 last year with The Terminal and even that made $70+ million. Moreover, I feel that the controversy of the whole topic that is dealt with in the movie will attract even more audiences.


Here are some comparisons for high-profile movies opening in this semi-limited release:


Amistad

Another Spielberg-directed drama that opend in 322 theatres in Deceber 1997. It opened to $4,573,523 for a PTA of $14,203. That movie had favorable, even though not glowing reviews. Moreover, it did not have the controversy that surrounds Munich.


Bridget Jones: The Edge of Reason

I know, it's a very odd comparison, but that was a movie that opened in pretty much the same amount of theatres as Munich is opening in. It opened last November in 530 theatres to $8,684,055 and a PTA of $16,385. Its reviews weren't great, but there was a lot of anticipation for it.


Closer:

This controversal contender for the awards opened last December in 476 theatres to $7,707,972 and a PTA of $16,193. The reviews about it were split, but it did have a big-names cast and certainly attracted lots of audiences.


The examples above show that the least we can expect for Munich' PTA is $15,000 (Amistad's PTA would be above that as well, if adjusted to inflation). However, with this one being a bigger contender for the awards the the three above and with a more controversal theme, I expect this one to be bigger, quite bigger.

As of now I see a PTA of about $19,000 for the weekend. It could be higher, if not for Christmas Eve falling on Saturday. I won't be surprised, though, if the PTA will be above $20,000.

What do you think?

I will say $22K.

Around $16,000.

Well it's making over 9m so im thinking over 18,000. I'll go with 19,500 for now. Theres hype no doubt im just wondering how marketing will be this week, if it's really solid i'll go higher.

Highest Averages for Films Playing in 100-1,000 Theatres in December (1982-2005)- All Weekends


Only one film has gotten $20k+.

1 Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon $20,147 $3,263,821 162
2 Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon $18,439 $2,636,887 143
3 The Royal Tenenbaums $17,098 $4,975,779 291
4 Big Fish $16,562 $2,053,733 124
5 Closer $16,193 $7,707,972 476
6 The Color Purple $15,658 $3,162,958 202
7 A Beautiful Mind $14,819 $7,780,495 525
8 Amistad $14,203 $4,573,523 322
9 Terms of Endearment $12,020 $3,125,453 260
10 Silkwood $10,452 $2,999,981 287
11 Adaptation $10,165 $1,108,032 109
12 Adaptation $9,485 $1,033,875 109
13 Antwone Fisher $9,431 $1,801,384 191
14 The Color Purple $8,907 $1,710,333 192
15 Shakespeare in Love $8,847 $2,609,894 295
16 In the Bedroom $8,361 $861,229 103
17 Broadcast News $8,050 $5,449,920 677
18 Tootsie $7,748 $7,469,326 964
19 Yentl $7,739 $4,481,318 579
20 The Phantom of the Opera $7,656 $4,762,233 622
21 The Russia House $7,625 $5,528,288 725
22 The Verdict $7,285 $4,706,382 646
23 Amistad $7,269 $5,176,006 712
24 Empire $7,245 $6,281,415 867
25 The Flamingo Kid $7,215 $4,437,250 615
26 The Piano $7,118 $1,701,363 239
27 Out of Africa $7,054 $6,504,397 922
28 Protocol $7,014 $6,320,007 901

I would kill to see Crouching Tiger in theatres again..


But i'm guessing $16K

Even after 5 years, CTHD still has one of the most impressive platform release runs ever.

I think $20K is fair for Munich.

I say it will go under 20000. Christmas Eve is going to put a damper to it.

I´d say 15K... which would still be great. This is Xmas weekend and the subject matter is not exactly Christmas-y...

Around A Beautiful Mind's number (similar # of theatres)...

I agree, I say 14-16K.

17k

Man I could this having a huge PTA probably between 18k to 20k but I think it will drop horribly the following week like Syriana and Jarhead unless its expanding even further. If it was like a normal wide release, I could see it dropping 55% the following week because frankly lately most political type of war movies do, man

Make the most of these predictions el masked since we might not be able to post on this here forum much longer..

Yeah I feel your pain. Its a shame that we are the only ones being mentioned in the warning site while others who have done worse get away scottfree. I still wonder if there was a hidden agenda about that warning topic still the topic creator is being a hyprocrite when he himself has attacked posters in the forum especially when he told Impact straight up that nobody likes him
I would ignore him if I were you

what is the "warning" topic?


Yes, your main point is correct, certain people have gotten away with FAR worse and are still allowed to roam freely, to graze the forum pastures and yes insomniacDUD is damnable hypocrite!

$12-13K and continue to dissapoint along the way

$8.500 - too much competition plus no Saturday grosses to speak of

I see quite a couple of underestimations for it here. Why do you expect it to open with a somewhat lower PTA than, for instance, Closer?

Release date? It´s Xmas weekend, do people wanna see a movie about Israel and terrorism? Probably yes, but not that much

Competence? The market is going to be crowded to no end

Lack of star power? Closer did actually have much more of that

I could see it doing as much as many people say... But I don´t think It will.

It's a little more crowded. Being the only opener of its week, Closer was able to grab a few more screens, probably to the degree of half a print per theater. Munich may get stuck with 1 screen per for 60% of the theaters and 2-3 only at large cities.

But I still think $18K and above is likely.

It might not have the starpower in its cast, but it has Spielberg's star power and that is enough.

It also has controversy. It might drop hard, but on the opening weekend, the theatres will be packed.

Yep. But I have the feeling some people, just the few that could make the difference between 15K and 20K, could want to leave the Israel- Palestinian controversy thing for after Christmas.

And It´s not like they won´t have any other movies to go to. The market´s so crowded, I think they´ll go to Munich eventually, but right now.

Who's the audience for MUNICH?

Young males? There's KING KONG, THE RINGER, WOLF CREEK, DICK & JANE
Kids? There's KONG, NARNIA, CHEAPER 2, HP4
Young females? There's RUMOR HAS IT, DICK & JANE
Adults? There's GEISHA, PRODUCERS, FAMILY STONE

And how many "political" movies are successful these days? When SYRIANA went wide it managed $6,699 with less competition and no Christmas Eve to diminish returns (GOOD NIGHT AND GOOD LUCK managed just $4,667).
Go back to 1994, the last time Xmas Eve fell on a Saturday and look at the grosses and compare them to the weekend before and the weekend after...

Don't get me wrong, I'm pretty excited to see MUNICH and I want it to perform good, but it won't do that good Christmas weekend...

Syrianna went wide with 1500+ theaters compared to Munich which is getting just 500 theaters. Of course theres going to a difference. Why would Munich get the same PTA than Syrianna if its playing in 1000 less?