No.

At this point, saying this is a success is very underwhelming considering that below Pokemon opening..

The Apes opening wknd with Drek 2's 5-day opening.

$89,939,610

5-Day:

$107,158,836

Now way will KK make $89M over the weekend with Narnia making $30M+

Indeed, the dud will actually be lucky to break 50m this wknd, it would need a Godzilla like multiplyer. I dont think Kong is breaking even 45m this wknd, which it realy bad for my derby

BJ, Narnia could be within $10-15M of KK's weekend gross.

BJs best case scenario prediction for the Ape:

Wed: 9.76m

Thur: 5.86m -40%

Fri: 14.66m +150%

Sat: 20.80m +35%

Sun: 15.60m -25%

Wknd: 51.06m

5-Day-Opening: 66.68m

BJ, I gotta love ya for being super optimistic, yet remarkably still fairly realistic in most cases, about all films and their box office (see last weeks derby score for how awesome you did!). It's really awesome to come onto the site and see that optimism for all films, instead of anti-"insert film here" people. Just wanted to let you know that. Thanks for the being the super cool, nice, optimistic guy you are.

PEACE, Mike.

Thanks mike

I completely agree with Mike. I have a tremendous respect for you, BJ. If a little bit of that optimism rubbed off on us all, we'd be so much better off!

Thank you to you as well Box

Sad to say you have 51m there.

Ill fix that

Hmm...I tend to think that if Kong can manage a strong weekend it will more likely be on the back of a less frontloaded-type Thursday, ie. 30% drop or less.

Indeed, Im thinking a 5% drop is very likely, that would lead to an outstadning 60-65m wknd easily

Nebs' worst case scenario prediction for the Ape:

Wed: 9.76m

Thu: 5.70m -42%

Fri: $10.83 +90%

Sat: $12.99 +20%

Sun: $10.39 -20%

Wknd: $34.21m

5-day weekend: $49.67m

Hmmm, Nebs, it will drop more than 20% on Sunday, in any case, I'd say.

I think it is heading to about a 45-50 mill weekend.

Heh, it got $6.2m on thursday for 36.4% drop, so will leave overall weekend gross as it is. Just prolly different percentages.

If-if-if-if-if Kong DOES fail, and that still an if-if-if-if, I think this could be traced to the less-than-stellar source material.

In the 30's, Kong had the appeal of new special effects, a scantily clad pretty girl, and a sparkly new Empire State building. But what appeal is there now? King Kong cannot make it on blockbuster legend alone. That particular pond is crowding with new fish. Once you take out the SFX (old hat), the Empire State Building (old hat), and the scantily-clad girl (dime a dozen), all Kong is left with is a sad gorilla. Which don't buy you $300M.

The modern market for Kong was lukewarm at best. This is not a new revelation. Baumer, and BKB in his own way, touched on this months ago. However, I don't believe anybody can fault Jackson's moviemaking. By most accounts, his moviemaking skill hasn't wavered.

However, I think Jackson CAN be faulted for believing that everyone wanted to see an update of Kong as much as he wanted to make it.

Why was PJ himself so eager to remake this? Did he really feel it was a story that needed retelling, and retelling again? Or was he lured into a Lucas Trap, only with miniatures instead of CGI as the bait? Even Lucas wins this particular battle. His story was a story that needed to be told, so much so that the story was sufficient to overcome Lucas's faults. If nobody cares about PJ's story, the lack of faults will not be sufficient to overcome the apathy.

I'll GUARANTEE you if George Lucas' name was attached to a remake of King Kong, we wouldn't be talking about people not wanting to see a remake of Kong. I'd bet everything that I own that a George Lucas directed King Kong would have doubled or tripled the opening day numbers that this movie made.

We can spin it all we want to, Erendis, but Peter Jackson just isn't in the same league as King George, Spielberg, or Cameron, and never was. He's with the Tim Burtons of the world. Nothing to be ashamed of, but if we look at it realistically, that's about where Jackson stands on the totem poll.

I said this months ago:

Updated: King Kong sub 200mil club
I'll get right to the point. I dont think this movie is going to break 160mil. Anybody thinking this will get to 300mil+ is smoking something. I just dont feel it for this film. I've been asking friends, family, coworker and no one seems to care about it. I'd say it would perform along the lines of Godzilla but that had the summer going for it. The only thing this film does have is Jackson and even that wont help. Hey, Godzilla had Emerich coming off of the success of ID4 and look where it landed. I dont want to hear its going to have ground breaking effects because frankly it should and thats not enough. We've all come to expect that at a new level each year anyway. And the story, well we all know what happens. Any Mighty Joe's want to join me in doing the Congo dance?

----------------------------------------


I'm changing my toon slightly and to get more people on board we'll go with a sub $200mil club. I still dont think this film will break 200mil and will be lucky to get to 175mil. I dont feel the interest isnt there with or with out Jackson. It will be another Godzilla.

3day(weekend): $50-60mil
5day: $75-80mil
final: $175mil



Last edited by RAWSAW on Mon Jun 27, 2005 4:35 pm; edited 3 times in total

http://72.36.130.178/forum/viewtopic.php?t=9941

All hail Burton's Planet of the Apes. The top grossing ape movie for years to come

If this happens, I will almost feel sorry for the loonies. Almost. Part of me wants to laugh about it because of all the insulting that they've been doing and have done for years to anybody who didn't bow to Peter "The precious" Jackson, but a part of me is sad that the dream will be over for them. How could they ever get back on their "Peter Jackson is God" and "Peter Jackson can do no wrong" soapboxes ever again if it comes up that short? That would take some of the fun out of the forums, but they couldn't realistically ever do that again or they'd end up looking like clueless asses. I hope it at least makes 200 million somehow.