Opening Weekend (5 theaters): $425,000 ($85,000 PTA)
2nd Weekend (60): $2,100,000 ($35,000)

And I agree with MD, the interest and awareness for this film is probably for any serious Gay film, well, EVER. And with one out of every 10 people being homosexual, 300 million Americans, hmmmm... Not to mention the oscar appeal this'll have.

I'd say the minimum for this is $20M at this point, with a chance at $75M+. And yes, I might be crazy. But hey, I was among the first to say F9/11 could do $20M opening weekend.

Well, its going to be filled to capacity opening weekend, that is for sure. It pretty much depends on how big the venues that are showing it are. I know even when Melinda and Melinda opened in two relatively small theatres here, that it pulled 74,000 pta, so I'm going to go ahead and guess this will break 90,000 because its probably showing in bigger theatres.

2nd weekend, with 60 theatres, that s a great expansion number. I'm still going to keep it at 40,000 pta.
When it opens larger, that when it might start to show irratic pta numbers.

My preliminary total gross prediction would be around $30-45 million, by the way. Depending on all the award buzz and actual wins.

I don't know whom they movie is aimed at, but the audience will be full of hetero women.

I don't know how to do numbers for PTA because it varies with theatre size, number of acutal showings, and stuff. It is okay to say that the Friday night viewing will be 90% full, Saturday 80% full, Sunday 65% full, and then the WOM will kick in.

Yup, there was an article on NY Post about "Why Brokeback Mountain Is The New Porn For Women".

It's getting enough screens (2-3 per theater) to have a super high PTA.

They should rename this film "SoreAss Mountain"

Thank you for that intelligent, thoughtful, and highly orginal post. I am sure no one else would have thought of something so witty and creative.

You're welcome, you Gaylord Focker!!

Well it seems Brokeback has week one in the bag. However, it's definetely going to be interesting to see how it expands and performs in the long run since the film is such an X-factor.

For this weekend though, I think it'll do well. Aside from the regular audience, the film will score big with the "edgy" NYC/LA crowd, who will want to be among the first to see the "It" movie of the moment.

My prediection: $100,000 PTA

Hahahahah!

Or hey, how about this: "Birth Control 101"


Hahahahahah!


Btw, that 10% thing...make it 2.5-10%; I'm pretty sure the 10% is completely made up, as would any other.

And as was mentioned above, women are a huge factor. Here's the thing: you get twice the men, but with added sensitive.

It's a pretty good deal.

One problem with BM having possible big box-office success.

This is Focus. The anti-christ of studios. Theatre count probably won't get past 1100-1200 or so.

BO Guru (Courtesy of Neowolf in the friday numbers thread):

Opening to muscular results in platform release on Friday were a pair of awards contenders sure to post sensational averages this weekend. Focus Features debuted Ang Lee's Brokeback Mountain in five theaters and grossed an estimated $192,000 for a jaw-dropping $38,000 average in just one day. Meanwhile, Sony premiered its Japan-set drama Memoirs of a Geisha in eight sites with an estimated $226,000 for a strong $28,000 average. Despite playing in only a handful of theaters, both pictures should pop into the North American Top 20.

That is absolutely fantastic.

It's not just fantastic. It's fucking unbelievable.

It should do about $114-120,000 PTA for the weekend.
The Saturday daily shows will help it increase on its second day of release while its Saturday night showings should be as saturated as Friday's!

As Cotton said, the real test will be the second weekend´s expansion. Ig It goes to 60 theatres, what kind of PTA could be looking at here?

Five-hundred thousand, for a thirty mil weekend.

but assuming it, again, gets a the hours like release where it starts in limited release in december, then semi wide by january, i still see it performing slightly better than the hours, around $50-70 million. assuming the buzz it has right now stays as strong in the upcoming months, of course. don't count it out for the best picture win though, which would change everything.


Sticking with this. prediction. Actually though I do believe it will end up winning best picture so I think that will help it wuite a bit.

To be honest though I know there's a limit as to high it can go, but I don't know what that limit is. Just how high is interest in it among people who are not turned off byt it's subject matter?

My current prediction is $60-80 million.

Just when I thought my $100,000 PTA predtiction was too robust...

Yes, the real test will be when it expands and how it performs in the mainstream markets. Hippsters, art house connoisseurs, hetro females, and gay men will be it's main base. Some question that the movie's lack of teenage and male appeal will hurt, but I still think if the award season is generous to Brokeback and if the studio plays it's cards just right in the expansion and marketing, we could have a bona-fide hit on our hands. I mean, if Life is Beautiful -- an Italian, english-subtitled, art house flick -- can gross $60 million, than...

Again, why it reminds me of The Hours. I remember the theater was almost 100% (white if you wanna narrow it down even further ) middle aged women. I felt so out of place lol!!

It really had nothing that would appeal to heterosexual males or teenagers of any gender outside of those who pay close attention to reviews and/or awards, which is a pretty small audience. So for a movie that had such a limited audience, I still think $40 million was amazing. But let's if every gay person out there goes and sees it it could make $100 million from gay audiences alone hehe Like I said, it will really all depends on just how high interest is among, um, non homophobes basically. But at this point I don't see how it coyuld make any less than $50 million.

The Hours didn't have the unanimous praise that BBM is having. The opinions on The Hours were quite divided, with some thinking it's the worst or most overrated film of th year. There is a lot more passion behind BBM.

Wow, almost 100% hetro middle-aged women. Hmmm, you sure there weren't any more gay men or bookish, snobby people in black turtle-necks?



Agreed, although the massive cast and respected director did provide a huge amount of clout for the movie's ad campaign and award pedigree. Brokeback Mountain should capatilize on Jake Gyllenhaal's rising-star status, Heath Ledger's Oscar buzz, and Ang Lee's prestige.

Please work on being funny, it is really not your forte.

True, but the difference isn't huge. Brokeback Mountain is currently at 87/100 at Metacritic, The Hours ended with 81 (with BM dropping slightly). At RT BM stands at 84%, while The Hours got 79%, as for COTC BM is at 83% while The Hours was at 82%.

The Hours has 10 scores of 100 out of 39 reviews and 3 more at 90. Brokeback Mountain already has 11 scores of 100 out of only 23 reviews and 3 more at 90. It's possible that out of the later reviews, BBM won't get another 100 since if it had been 100, the review would have been released by now; however, I'd say BBM seems to have a stronger backing than The Hours, and it will win more critic awards as well since I don't see the awards will be split out as much as they were in 2002.

What Xiayun said... and something else. "The hours" was, to some extent, a difficult film, told in three different timelines, stories hardly connected at all, a bit cold... "BBM" is linear, classic storytelling, a love story that people seem to be liking and carries an emotional punch. I think that alone makes a difference, IMO.