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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm
Posts: 25035
Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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 Dr. Lecter wrote: DP07 wrote: BJ wrote: DP07 wrote: I think people are overestimating Chicken Little. When a family blockbuster opens the percentage affect tends to be greater for films that are earning less. The Pacifier held up well against Robots, but Because of Winn-Dixie didn't just as with Return to Neverland and Big Fat Liar against Ice Age. Shrek 2 surprised many people with it's hold against Harry Potter 3. Recently Wallace and Gromit was hit harder by Chicken Little then the family films that were earning more at the time. Chicken Little then held up better against HP 4 then the other (smaller) family films in release.
I guess a larger gross can allow a film to ride out the storm. Thats good news for HP4 and bad news for my derby  Well, it could still easily cost HP4 2m this weekend.  However, I'd bet that CL will have the bigger drop of the two, even if it has the better legs of the two.  Something tells me that YMO will be hit the hardest. I sure hope so, that film killed my derby two wks ago  _________________The Force Awakens
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| Fri Dec 09, 2005 5:52 am |
 
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DP07
The Thirteenth Floor
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 2:26 am
Posts: 15573
Location: Everywhere
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I have a hunch YMO will be hurt the least. It has the slapstick fans, which is quite different then Narnia.
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| Fri Dec 09, 2005 6:07 am |
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dolcevita
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:24 pm
Posts: 16061
Location: The Damage Control Table
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BJ wrote: Under predict Narina lately Someone that agrees with me on Brokeback  Giesha is going to be mangled by Brokeback this wknd  Geisha is getting mangled by its own reviews. Has nothing to do with Brokebakc. They're both in so few screens right now they could easily co-exist.
@Lecter. I actually had 90,000 pta down earlier, but then wasn't sure what venues they Brokeback was playing in. If its big AMC ones, definately could go higher, but if its playing at the smaller indie theatres, it will outperform Melinda & Melinda, but not by much, as those theatres just have a limit to turnover and capacity that bigger ones don't.
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| Fri Dec 09, 2005 9:28 am |
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Vovanik
Star Trek XI
Joined: Tue Nov 02, 2004 7:44 am
Posts: 337
Location: Ukraine,Kyiv
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1. Narnia......................56.5
2. Syriana.....................13.2
3. Harry Potter..............10.3
4. Walk the Line.............5.8
5. Aeon Flux..................4.7
6. Yours, Mine................4.6
7. Just Friends................3.5
8. Pride and Prejudice.....3.2
9. Chicken Little.............2.2
10.Rent ........................2.2
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| Fri Dec 09, 2005 9:50 am |
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Anonymous
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01. The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe $56.4m
02. Syriana $13.3m
03. Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire $10.5m
04. Walk the Line $5.7m
05. Yours, Mine and Ours $5.2m
06. Aeon Flux $5.1m
07. Just Friends $3.2m
08. Pride and Prejudice $3.2m
09. Chicken Little $2.4m
10. Rent $2.2m
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| Fri Dec 09, 2005 10:08 am |
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zingy
College Boy Z
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:40 pm
Posts: 36662
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Final Predictions
1. The Chronicles of Narnia - $50.6 million (NEW)
2. Syriana - $13.1 million (WIDE)
3. Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire - $10.9 million (-45.0%)
4. Walk the Line - $5.7 million (-40.0%)
5. Aeon Flux - $5.3 million (-58.0%)
6. Yours, Mine and Ours - $5.0 million (-40.0%)
7. Just Friends - $3.9 million (-30.0%)
8. Pride and Prejudice - $3.3 million (-25.0%)
9. Chicken Little - $2.6 million (-40.0%)
10. Rent - $2.4 million (-45.0%)
*Memoirs of the Geisha - $440,000 ($55,000 PTA)
*Brokeback Mountain - $350,000 ($70,000 PTA)
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| Fri Dec 09, 2005 11:23 am |
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Dworkin
Full Fledged Member
Joined: Sat Nov 05, 2005 10:14 am
Posts: 55
Location: Moskow, Russia
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I think
Narnia 56.2
Syriana 10.2
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| Fri Dec 09, 2005 11:31 am |
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paper
Artie the One-Man Party
Joined: Sat Sep 17, 2005 2:53 pm
Posts: 4632
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First week in a few that just about no one has similar predicts to mine...Hopefully this ends up being a good thing (it usually isn't!)
My openers (wide):
Narnia: 46.2
Syriana: 17.1
Harry Potter: 11.7
I probably went a few hundred thousand too high for Potter, but with a lackluster weekend for Narnia it might not be as affected as badly.
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| Fri Dec 09, 2005 11:44 am |
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rolandka19
Indiana Jones IV
Joined: Sat Oct 30, 2004 9:33 am
Posts: 1117
Location: Somewhere in the East Coast
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My openers:
1. The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch, and the Wardrobe- $62.3 million
2. Syriana- $14.3 million
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| Fri Dec 09, 2005 3:53 pm |
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Crag Hack
Full Fledged Member
Joined: Mon Oct 24, 2005 5:57 pm
Posts: 91
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Final Predictions
1. The Chronicles of Narnia - $64.2 million
2. Syriana - $12.4 million
3. Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire - $10.4 million
4. Walk the Line - $5.6 million
5. Aeon Flux - $4.8 million
6. Yours, Mine and Ours - $4.7 million
7. Just Friends - $3.7 million
8. Pride and Prejudice - $3.0 million
9. Rent - $2.3 million
10. Chicken Little - $2.1 million
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| Fri Dec 09, 2005 6:49 pm |
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Crag Hack
Full Fledged Member
Joined: Mon Oct 24, 2005 5:57 pm
Posts: 91
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Brandons Predictions
1. The Chronicles of Narnia - $52.0 million
2. Syriana - $13.1 million
3. Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire - $10.3 million
4. Walk the Line - $6.0 million
5. Aeon Flux - $4.7 million
6. Yours, Mine and Ours - $4.5 million
7. Pride and Prejudice - $3.4 million
8. Just Friends - $3.3 million
9. Rent - $2.4 million
10. Chicken Little - $2.4 million
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| Fri Dec 09, 2005 6:52 pm |
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Magic Mike
Wallflower
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:53 am
Posts: 35248
Location: Minnesota
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The only prediction of mine I ended up changing for this weekend was my Brokeback Mountain one. I raised it to $340,000. It could actually make a little more than Memoirs of A Geisha. It probably won't, but it's certainly possible. The reviews for Geisha suck overall and it's not going to be winning awards, however reviews for Brokeback Mountain are terrific and it's likely more of a "must see" for movie fans in these cities.
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| Fri Dec 09, 2005 11:01 pm |
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paper
Artie the One-Man Party
Joined: Sat Sep 17, 2005 2:53 pm
Posts: 4632
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I think I'm one of the few that went high for Syriana, and judging from the way it's tracking, it looks like it just may crack 15-17 million. We'll find out tomorrow I suppose.
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| Sat Dec 10, 2005 12:02 am |
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Joker's Thug #3
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 2:36 am
Posts: 11130
Location: Waiting for the Dark Knight to kick my ass
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Kong is already #1 on MovieFone, even though another blockbuster just came out.
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| Sat Dec 10, 2005 2:12 am |
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zingy
College Boy Z
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:40 pm
Posts: 36662
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If Narnia opens to, like, $60 million somehow... I think Kong can pull $70 million opening weekend.
Just a gut feeling.
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| Sat Dec 10, 2005 2:16 am |
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