Yes, but very very rarely and even then the "Fresh" has never been above 65% or around that.

Untrue. With only 6 reviews (now 7), there is only one review difference between 33% and 50%, and we know how both Cold Mountain and Ray finished after stumbling out of the gate.

Cold Mountain performed better from the beginning. It never went below 40% at any point nd the Average Rating never went as low either. I forgot Ray, but that is one of the few exceptions. In 90% of cases movies start out with great reviews which get worse later on.

I see the following 5 being nominated:

1. Spielberg for Munich
2. Terrence Malick for The New World (He was nominated for A Thin Red Line)
3. Woody Allen for Match Point
4. Ang Lee for Brokeback Mountain
5. George Clooney for Good Night, and Good Luck

No Marshall or Mendes as their respective films didn't or aren't receiving the best word.

GNAGL did get a lot of good reviews but was it really for Clooney's direction? Wasn't it mostly because of the subject matter that some felt was a timely lesson for today? I'm not saying the movie doesn't deserve consideration, just that we might be overstating it's chances.

In other words, bump.

I don't understand how some predictions are excluding Marshal.

Not only did he not win Best Director for a Best Picture winner, but he is recieving positive buzz for Geisha and has all along been credited for alot of the greatness behind the film. If Memoirs isn't nominated for Best Picture (just don't see how it will happen unless the film is seriously disastrous) then he doesn't have much of a chance.

James Mangold will probably be the token director without a nom for his BP-nominated film. Woody Allen will take the spot. Other than that, it's too early to speculate much else.

It's just that Geisha might turn out not as strong as expected. Maybe this year's Finding Neverland.

And Mangold will be nominated. If Taylor Hackford managed to get a nom for Ray, then so will Mangold.

I doubt very much Mangold will be nominated. Even last year, some were surprised to see Hackford get the nom.

Walk the Line just is not a strong film at all. The performances are what's keeping it in the overall Oscar race and what will get it nominated is the break ir offers from the heavy material the other contenders (just about all of em) are weighing in.

I don't know how we can say that Walk the Line is "not a strong film" when it's the only lock we have at the moment, and Thursday is the first day of December. Maybe we can re-approach this notion after Christmas and determine where it is on the scale.

The reviews are stronger than many Best Picture nominated films of the last 10 years (and better than some winners). It was never going to be a film that set the world on fire.

Mangold is getting a lot of notice for the film though, and while I now think Ang Lee can be nominated, I'm not so sure about Rob Marhsall.

But the fact is that Hackford was nominated. And I doubt that WTL is weaker than Ray.

Walk the Line's biggest strength is how weak everybody else is. Mangold looks pretty safe right now.

Likelihood of nomination, imo.
1. Ang Lee (will win the award even if another movie wins best picture)
2. Woody Allen
3. Terrence Malick
4. Steven Spielberg
5. James Mangold
6. Peter Jackson
7. George Clooney
8. David Cronenberg

I am pretty sure the first 3 will make it through even if their respective pictures aren't nominated (Mike Leigh/David Lynch/Robert Altman). Steven Spielberg is a bit vulnerable with recent reviews indicating the lack of emotional manipulation in the film. And I still think there's a good chance Mangold could be left out ala Driving Miss Daisy. Peter Jackson could sneak in only if King Kong is regarded to be even better than Return of the King. George Clooney could be one of those "actor-director" nominees, but the PGA Stanley Kramer precursor indicated that both him and the film won't make it.

Mangold looks so out of place in that list in term of director name/power/respect, and that's why I think he is really vulnerable.

The raves for Peter Jackson/King Kong the last two days has just incredible. I am moving Peter Jackson up to #5.