NBR is a good indicator, but there always seems to be a few films on there (usually like three with the rare exception of 2002) that really don't go anywhere (and some which have been completely forgotten... Dancing at Lughnasa anyone?). So even that needs to be taken with a grain of salt.

Top 10 Films of 2004 included:
03 Closer
06 Kinsey
09 Collateral

Top 10 Films of 2003 included: (Return of the King not nominated)
02 Last Samurai
03 The Station Agent
05 House of Sand and Fog

Top 10 Films of 2002 included:
09 13 Conversations About One Thing

Top 10 Films of 2001 included: (A Beautiful Mind not nominated)
03 Ocean's Eleven
07 The Man Who Wasn't There
08 A.I.
09 The Pledge

Top 10 Films of 2000 included:
03 Croupier
04 You Can Count On Me
09 Sunshine

Top 10 Films of 1999 included:
05 Cradle Will Rock
09 Tumbleweeds
10 Three Kings

Top 10 Films of 1998 included:
04 Happiness
06 The Butcher Boy
07 Lolita
10 Dancing at Lughnasa

Top 10 Films of 1997 included: (Titanic not nominated)
03 The Wings of the Dove
09 The Rainmaker

Top 10 Films of 1996 included:
05 Everyone Says I Love You

Top 10 Films of 1995 included:
03 Carrington
05 The American President
08 Persuasion

etc.

Yep, but I don´t think It has been implied that "Memoirs" getting in the NBR Top 10 guarantees a nomination... but that if It doesn´t get there, It´s more or less dead.

Geisha has to fight to stay in the race now. THe NBR could be a good start.

I think to stay in the race, it will need the following:

1) Nominated for BFCA (in its top 10 list) on Sunday;
2) In NBR's top 10 on Monday;
3) 4 Golden Globe nominations on Tuesday (Best Picture Drama, Best Actress Drama, Best Supporting Actress, Best Score); screenplay is a long shot, and director is a long long shot.
4) See its RT score back to 60% at least by then.

I don't think this will help though,s icen the GG has two BP categories they always end up nomiating films that get no major award recognition like Phantom.

Again, as dar said, getting them doesn't mean it'll be in, but not getting them means serious trouble. These awards are the minimum for Memoirs to stay in the game. When Phantom of the Opera get 3 GG noms, the focus wasn't that "it got 3", but "it only got 3". We saw weakness because GG was one award that is supposed to love Phantom, and it only got 3 noms. Same for Memoirs. If it misses out on one of those 4, it will signal GG is lukewarm on it too, and it will be dead.

http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/memoirs_of_a_geisha/

Well, it is at 44% now with 18 reviews.

It's lower now. Newsday also gave it a negative review, so the Cream of the Crop score will come down also.

Its like the jok eon the SImpsons, everybody has a globe. Gere won and he wasn;t even nominated, and Geisha is the harder cramatic category so I don't see it happening.

So is that what I should expect? Beautiful to look at but less than stellar story? I think it's gonna take more than that for it to fail me. But I haven't been reading the reviews - maybe there IS much more than that to worry about?

All i see is tech noms for geisha now.

It should still get at least five, methinks.

yep.
costumes
art direction
music (if Williams doesn't get nominate for another flick)
camera
editing
and out of pity an acting nomination

Out of pity? I don't know...I haven't seen the movie, but praises for Gong Li are everywhere. I would say she is the surest bet for a Best Supporting Actress nom this year after Johansson and Keaton.

Down all the way to 38%:

http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/memoirs_of_a_geisha/

It's over.

Man, All the King's Men shouldve been the movie pushed this year from Sony, they should've just put overtime into editing the movie and releasing it before deadline, I mean I cant imagine that it would've gotten as mediocre of a reception as Geisha is getting. I think it could've been a major contender, now instead will probably just be the Cinderella Man of next year ( great movie just too bad it came out too early to get much recognition )

I realize what Sony and the producers of All The King's Men said, but I can't help but imagine that if anyone involved REALLY, REALLY thought they had an Oscar powerhouse, we'd be seeing it in the next few weeks. They know that the end-of-year date is almost non-negotiable for Oscar contenders.

It's like when Disney pulled THE ALAMO.

Now that Memoirs seems to have waltzed its way right out of the race for Best Picture, I'm even more confused than before.

Munich, Walk the Line and Brokeback seem like three obvious choices. What are the other two? I'm feeling King Kong, I think it can do it. What does that leave? One of the comedy or lighter films to take the last slot? Family Stone, Producers? Maybe Match Point?

Libs, GNAGL is a stronger contender than either of the last three you mentioned.

Maybe The New World. Or Syriana can still pull it off. Or Good Night, and Good Luck.

I don't see GNAGL being nominated, personally.

Syriana won't pull it off. A score of 82 at BFCA guarantees it won't be in their top 10 list on Sunday. It's also highly likely to miss Golden Globe Drama given how competitive that category is. Without the two, where is the buzz for Syriana going start? I don't see either L.A. or N.Y. critics give it best picture or best director. It's pretty much limited to screenplay and Clooney at this point.

I think your opinion will be altered by this time next week. GNAGL will get a lot of mentions from Saturday (L.A.) to Tuesday (GG, with N.A. NBR, BFCA in between).

The academy likes Allen when he is on, Stone has no chance, and The Producers has to go agains the fact that its already a movie and htis version feel smore like a play.

Aside from Munich and Brokeback, I don;t see anything as a lock, this is atough year to call.

Excuse me for my rants that really have nothing to do with anything, but I guess I'm still just kind of reeling from all of this.

I mean, I knew Geisha had the potential to blow it big time, but I honestly thought it would still be a sure fire contender.

If someone had told me that one of the big players would be getting some serious critical backlash around this time, I would've said Brokeback, and look at it. It's getting the best reviews of any of them.

Not to nicky-picky, but I think RT hates Marshall or a cast member or something. All the borderline reviews are given a rotten score. The L.A. Times' review is mixed at worst and given a score of 70 at metacritic, but RT only assigned it a score of 2 out of 5.