I meant to replace Geisha.

After seeing more clips of Kong today I have serious doubts it has a chance at a BP nom. The reason is that it is more cartoonish than I expected.

I saw a tv spot today focusing almost all on the love story... it had "Fix You" by Coldplay as background music... it was odd to watch... but still very lovely

Just thought I'd share my experience...

http://www.kingkong.com/media/kk_spot_alone_700k.mov

Holy shit that worked well. The TV spots have made this be the movie I've been anticipating more then any others this year.

That's nice, and I expect it to make a potload of money and entertain many many people. I was simply addressing the BP oscar nomination chances, specifically the looney tunes aspect of some clips of Jack Black and Adrien Brody in some action scenes.

I think we can all safely agree on the following set of movies as the definitive list from which we'll have all our nominees

Munich
Memoirs of a Geisha
Brokeback Mountain
Walk the Line
Good Night, and Good Luck
The New World

King Kong
The Producers
Match Point
Crash (I was read to write this out of the running until HR's recent Oscar Watch issue had some insiders raving that it's still the best of the year)


I'm ruling out Capote, at least for my sake and purposes, because it's just too small and doesn't have anywhere near the critical acclaim GNAGL, Brokeback, Crash, and Match Point will have by the time all the films are released.


Spotlight On....

Cinderella Man: Does this movie really have a chance?

Throughout the race in the past couple of month the movie I've grown most antagonistic to Cinderella Man. Why? Because it's such a big question mark. It was too early and it wasn't too successful, it got great reviews but not enough raves to keep it consistently in people's minds. So, you'd think it's done and over with. Then again, now you have the DVD and this pretty sizeable Oscar campaign. Plus it's a pedigree Oscar film with golden names attached to it all around.

So, where does thi end up? I'd like to think that I wouldn't be wrong in removing it from the absolute list of films in contention, but there is a slither of a chance the Academy might want to go back to some roots with such small and out-of-Oscar-form films this year.

Why should it be excluded?
Aside the fact that I despise Russel Crow (all the while realizing he is one of our finest actors today) and sort of loathing Howard, I just don't think this film should be in play this year. I know we all strive to bring fairness, but even if it does end up being among the best of the year, I would like it to get shut-out. Why? Well, for one it may be the best but it certainly isn't that important; we get alot of films like these and some of them are very well made and become classics but in the scope of what an oddly important year this is becoming for so many variety of reasons displayed through the diverse issues alot of other contenders cover, it just doesn't hold as strong weight.
PLUS: ron Howard has already won (and recently). Russel Crow has already (and recently and been nominated 3 times in the past 6 years). Renee Zellweger has already one (and recently and been nominated 3 times in the past 4 years).

All these people have been awarded... I don't want to see any of their names come nomination time. Give a chance for others to shine and breakout and hopefully deliver better films in the future. Pave the way for newcomers now to start and eventually make their great 'Cinderella Mans' of their own.

Thus, you choose... should it be an eleventh possibility? Does it really stand a chance among the other contenders?

The Constant Gardener
King Kong
Munich
Brokeback Mountain
Walk the Line

You will not see two Focus films nominated for Best Picture. I think, personally, that that would be a virtual improbability.

I hope it is not a contender, honestly, there are more deserving films, and while Crowe is a strong actor, there were so many great male performaces this year. I really dislike Howard, so I don;t want to hear his name come award time.

Jackson will be nominated i think but the film will not get nominated for BP.I see it like this right now:
Munich
Brokeback Mountain
The new world
Good night,and good luck
Match Point

I don't think there is any way Jackson will get nominated without King Kong getting nominated almost entirely because he just won Best Director two years ago.
It's a weird situation, I understand, but I don't see that happening.
I realize he is the driving force and the person behind the whole success and magnificence of it all and as much as I love the man, if they decide not to nominate Kong, then they certainly won't go for Director for Jackson.

If they want to reward him without giving it something major like Director, I really see a writing nom comng into clear sight.

this is all besides the fact whether Kong will be nominated or not. If King is nominated, ordinarily Jackson would be the director with a best pic nod and without a director nod (again because he just won) but that just won't work with Kong. you can't have either one nominated without the other. The movie will not have that divided of a vote. If it gets it, it will get both and if it doesn't get either, it will get neither.

I still haven't put in my predictions and won't until I see it. I really have to see this one before I put it in; the only movie, thus far, which I have to see it in order to truly understand its Oscar chances. I'm completely baffled by this one.

where's Maverikk, by the way?
Haven't seen him post in quite some time!

Notes for Friday:

- Munich moves into the pole position. Brokeback takes up the rear and Walk the Line allows some of the "better" films to pass
- The day that Geisha died. It needs a miracle in the next 6 or 7 hours, and it's not going to happen.
- Good Night, and Good Luck. seems like as good of a nominee as any.
- I consider King Kong and The New World the #5 and #6 films at the moment, but The New World is starting to falter a bit in some of the reviews I've read.
- Capote is looking like a bigger contendor because it seems to be "good" (in 2005? a good film... YOU SO CRAZY!)
- Bad buzz on The Producers? HFPA hates it?
- If Kong fails and The Producers failes look out for Cinderella Man ?!?!?!

(+) Munich
(+) Brokeback Mountain
(=) Walk the Line
(=) Good Night, and Good Luck.

(+) King Kong
(=) The New World

(+) Capote
(=) Match Point
(-) The Producers
(-) Memoirs of a Geisha
(+) Cinderella Man
(=) Crash
(=) Mrs. Henderson Presents

I can't see Kong, Munich, and Brokeback out of the five for the same reason.

I just don't think all three (two Universal films and a Focus Feature (Universal's "artsy" division) film) nominated for BP is possible. Even if Focus operates seperately...

And, if King Kong's so hot, is there really any room for Cinderella Man? THREE Universal Films (AND Brokeback?)!

I really do think that Munich, Brokeback Mountain, Walk the Line and King Kong are the four movies that have there nominations all but locked up. As long as neither BM or KK's business/reviews suddenly plummet that is. Considering Universal hadn't had a single 100 million film until late August, it may be one of the most sucessful studio turn arounds in a year that I can remember.t.

- Mandatory glitzy Hollywood-esque production or Gorgeous Sophisticated Epic-like Historical Prdn (aka The Last Emperor): The New World
- Mandatory little film that nobody outside the indutsry cares about: Match Point
- Mandatory so-so film that doesn't offend anyone: Walk the Line
- Necessary big film in order to keep ratings up and show that the Academy is not compleyely out of touch with America and the world at large: King Kong
- Nomination that shows that Hollywood is not afraid of being controversial or is not completely ignorant of the outside world but rather, likes to be serious once in a while: Brokeback Mountain or Munich or Syriana (if Munich is anything short of amazing, I think H'wd would rather pass on the controversy and pick another one)



Winner: The New World

Focus is now like New Line, I think. It has spun off into NBC Universal and is no longer considered a subsidiary of Universal Pictures. It has its own subs now (Rogue).


3 Universal films is pushing it.

If Syriana had any chances, cancel them out. The film was admirable... but pretty much an overblown mess. I'm not really feeling a nomination in any category- though BSA for Clooney is up in the air.

Hmm... How come "The New World" is almost THE EXACT SAME THING as "The Last Samurai"?

So, it looks like this year's nominees are, for the most part, love stories!!

Walk the Line: straight love story
Brokeback: gay love story
King Kong: ape love story

If The New World was also nominated, that would be 4/5

I love how you keep categorizing Brokeback as, firstly, a gay love story, rather than simply a love story. It seems you're missing the point.

Umm hello. Raffiki is gay. Very very gay. I think he'd know the best way to categorize the film.

I don't deny the gayness (The Hours? CHICAGO???), just that Brokeback, if it is meant to get its point across, should be seen first as just a love story, not as a gay love story.

My top gay love stories.

1) Bound (yeah boy)
2) Toy Story
3) Shawshank Redemption

I'm sure that was just for characterization's sake. (Catagorization, i guess?)

Plus, not having seen the film, its hard to see it any other way...

of course ALL of those are "love storys" firstly...but...yknow what im sayin?

Why do my attempts at being controversial fail so miserably all the time?