Doesn't help that those are the only films you've seen this year.

Yeah I know, it's not cutting edge, nobody has a disease and it's not a biopic so wtf am I doing mentioning it. But lets remember Sense and Sensibility and Shakespeare in Love, this movie falls in line with that strain of taste in the academy. In fact, best pic nom Sense's writer Emma Thompson did an uncredited rewrite on Pride. It will depend on if Munich and Geisha underwhelm or not though as to how real its chances are to win, but I think it has a good shot to be nominated.

Eccentric, indeed.

Heh. Well every year we get some curve balls thrown at us, but if anyone tries to predict those curveballs and guesses out of the mainstream, they are tarred and feathered. It might be eccentric but not half as weird as a few people talking up that piece of crap The Upside of Anger.

Walk the Line = This year's Ray, only that it is more obvious (at least to me) that it will be nominated than it was in Ray's case.

The reviews at RT are very similar, with WTL being a bit better overall, but a bit worse at COTC. At Metacritic Ray stands at 73/100 and WTL at 72/100 and at IMDB both stand at 7.9/10.

Thus, I see no win.

Again...

Walk the Line = This year's Ray is a dumb as Jarhead = frontrunner because it's a war movie.

Not thought out, just talking in cliches.

Outside of a lead actress, how exactly are they different.

Well, the lead actress can't be taken out of the equation like it's just a footnote. It's a very significant piece that seperates the two films.

Also, as has been agreed upon here, it's a weak year. There isn't the competition this year for this to be in Ray's position. Geisha's now struggling out of the gate, and Syriana really isn't standing out critically anymore than The Constant Gardener. Nothing big is grabbing ahold of the race.

I also think Spielberg and Munich winning anything is too obvious a choice, and I really don't see it happening.

Care to wager?

Let me think about that.. Christ with my bad luck on this sort of thing, I'll lose anyway, but I just think this movie was that good and deserves the BEST PICTURE win.. There isn't a person I've spoken with who've seen this movie and didn't think it was Great.. Will see..

I don't think BKB is too out of his mind. Although it's a bit of a stretch and a long stretch of "what ifs"

What if what I think about Brokeback is not hot air? what if Memoirs continues with the bad reviews? What if Munich isn't much of anything?

Then we would have a situation where Walk the Line would be up against Good Night, and Good Luck and a bunch of indies. Or maybe Kong or Narnia or something. Or maybe a musical.

In that situation it seems more like a frontrunner.

WTL is practically guaranteed a BP nom but I won't say it's a surefire winner until Munich is released. On another note, I'd love to see Pride & Prejudice be nominated for Best Picture, Best Actress in a Leading Role, Best Cinematography, and Best Costume Design.

Here are the films I see getting nominated for Best Picture at this point in time:

1. Walk the Line
2. Munich
3. Memoirs of a Geisha
4. Crash
5. Pride & Prejudice or a blockbuster (Kong, Batman Begins, etc.)

As much as LOTR fans want to think this, KONG and BATMAN BEGINS will not win BEST PICTURE much less be nominated..

Yep, that´s true. I don´t see a BP npmination for "Pride and prejudice" happening, but It´s not that out of the question... I think predicting "King Kong", for example, is far more crazy, and many people are doing it, so... At this point, still, al most everything could happen.

They're trying to develop a "talking points" style meme for this movie - almost everything promotional I've read for this movie includes a phrase like "Oscar worthy" - personally, I believe it is just a lack of imagination on the part of people who think Ray started some sort of Oscar trend for musical biopics...

So much for that confident prediction.

http://www.worldofkj.com/reviews/Galia/WalkLine.php

Well, I'm sorry for her in that she didn't care for this that much.. Outside the internet, everyone I've spoken to who have seen it said it was Outstanding and it was and deserves the Academy Award for BEST PICTURE..

I've always found it quite ASTONISHING that EVERYONE you talk to "outside" of the internet agrees with you about EVERYTHING...

Why? Both Ray and Walk are very unoriginal biopics that tell the same damn story, they are pretty generic in the plot department and the only reason both are good films is because of the wonderful performances by the lead actors in them, the acting made both movies not the script or directing. It is the Ray of this year, no point in arguing such a obvious thing.

When it comes to awards, yeah it probably does have a better shot then Ray now, considering how some oscar hyped movies arent doing as good as expected in the review department, but at the end of the day the academy wouldnt give a movie like Walk the Line best picture.

I don't see how anyone can deny that WTL is analogous to Ray.

The only person he knows out of the internet is Uwe Boll.

For WTL to win, even if Munich and Memoirs failed, that would mean other big competitors would just jump in their space and still be ahead of WTL anyways. Good Night, and Good Luck could probably beat Line, as could P&P, and even Crash and Cinderella Man if they got in due to the two Ms failing. And this is not even counting The New World, Producers, King Kong, Syriana, etc. that have a good shot at at least not being terrible.

And btw, Jarhead probably would've been a frontrunner if it was actually good enough. The war thing didn't hold it back, critical trashing did.

Again, as has been your agenda, you look for reasons to downplay this film. Haven't you been wrong about it enough? It's the frontrunner as of now to win. That's just the way it is, and all the spinning and biased comments against it that you've done since day one aren't going to change the facts. .