Do you guys think that King Kong is close to a lock in visual effects, or will the academy look to finally award a Star Wars prequel?

If Kong is a nominee in any of the "big" categories, then it will be a lock. Otherwise... I dunno. It will be a tough call between Star Wars and Kong this year.

I don't think War of the Worlds will be nominated.

For anything.

I think Narnia can/will get a nomination.

I'm not convinced that ILM will get two nominations.

Edit: Uhhh... higly unlikely!

with 90% :

- Diane Keaton winning Best Supporting Actress

sorry Keira > Reese > Best Actress.

You're likely to be right but anything can happen. One thing is for sure - Both will have plenty more opportunities to win Oscars. For this reason, it isn't entirely out of the realm of possibility that Joan Allen or some older actress wins. That would certainly shock most everyone here, that's for sure as most people have either Witherspoon or Knightley winning.

By the way, how old are Knightley > 20, just like Scarlett J and Witherspoon, turning 30, respectively?

see above bolded answers

Cause Cold Miner's Daughter didn't win Hehe, no. But biopics in like these in generally not best picture winners. Often they're very good driven by their performances, but not good ENOUGH. And judging by the reviews (although they're not always everything) this doesn't really look to be any different. Do you honestly think people will watch this movie and think it is not only great, but THE best movie of the year?

Again, you shouldn't completely base a movie's chances based on history, but biopics that win are usually those of people who had some kind of pimpact on the world. On history, not just pop culture (Gandhi, The Last Emperor, Schindler's List). In fact, I can't think of a biopic that won from a person who was just...famous, regardless of how well they are regarded, regardless of how interesting or inspiring their lives were, and regardless of how well made the movie was, and regardless of well regarded of a figure they were. Maybe someone can point out an example?

@Raffiki: Brokeback Mountain? I know people say that a lot of people will not react very positively to it, but again, they forget you don't even need a majority of votes to win best picture. If those who do like it, love it, it has a better chance than universally praised film that not very many people would list as their favorite. I really do think that will be the case, but you can't predict how other films will be received. I don't think Memoirs of a Geisha will be as huge as some are hoping it will be, or think it will be, but that's (s)imply speculation and nothing else...and I really have no information to base my thoughts on that particular film right now. Munich could go either way, we really don't know anything about it. Just based on the people working on it and the premise you would think its the kind of film that would do really well...but will it actually deliver on that potential and be THAT good? As a movie with high expectations, it could also work against it if it's not as good as people were hoping for, even in the slightest way.

I think the big question mark this year, though, is The New World. A lot of people are dismissing it but there's really no reason to believe that it will be bad, and if it isn't, it's the PERFECT Oscar type film. So at this point the big contenders for the win, I think are The New World, Brokeback Mountain, Memoirs has a chance but again I personally don't think it will happen, and Munich. If we didn't know anything about Brokeback, I think Crash would have a chance if all films dissapointed, but at this point I think it's safe to say that if unfortunately ALL three films didn't live up to expectations, Mountain would beat Crash.

So the only reason I have Brokeback as the frontrunner is because we ahve some information on it. Now all there is to do is wait to see if Munich, Memoirs, or World are better/better received than Mountain. I think it has set the bar pretty high, though. Time will tell.

My predictions:
1. Brokeback Mountain for sure
2. Walk the Line for sure
3. Crash or Good Nigh and Good Luck OR Capote
4/5 Memoirs of a Geisha, New World, Munich (2 of the 3)

The only problem is that there is no comedy/light-hearted/feel-good movie in there. The Producers or Rent would fill in that slot nicely but I'm not particularly sure they will actually be good. The other movie to look out for is Three Burials.

Edit: Damn, I just realized I forgot Match Point.

hmm...
3. Crash OR Good Night and Good Luck OR Capote OR Match Point? ;P (I don't believe Capote has much of a chance at best picture anyway. )