Last year ended up with not a single pre-September release playing a big role at the Oscars. The year before that, however, Seabisquit snatched a Best Picture nom as well as some others after an August release.

In 2002, the Best Picture nominees were all released in the post-September period, but Road to Perdition still scored six noms with a July release date. In 2001, Moulin Rouge was the big pre-September player at the Oscars. In 2000, both Gladiator and Erin Brockovich were released way before September.

So last year was rather unusual and inconsistent with the recent trend regarding the pre-September releases. Last year, the only pre-September releases that scored somewhat well were Eternal Sunshine of the spotless Mind and Collateral.

Will this trend continue this year, or are we going to get some serious contenders that were released before September?




Here are my thoughts on the issue and the possible contenders:


The Upside of Anger - This movie was probably the first serious awards-contender released this year. It is facing a similar problem that Eternal Sunshine did last year. The release date is way too early in the year and the box-office is far from impressive minus the glowing reviews and universal love that Eternal Sunshine got. But I think that this year the famel categories (Supporting and Lead) are pretty weak and Joan Allen should have delivered enough of a good performance to grab a nod there. Thus I predict a Best Actress nomination for this one and that's it.


Sin City - The movie's arguably a great one and certainly the reviews mostly praised it, but much like Kill Bill, I think it is just too "out there" for the Academy voters. Personally, I'd think it deserved a nod or two for someone from the cast and then make-up, but I am fairly certain this movie will go unnoticed, thus I predict no nominations...maybe an obligatory tech nom...but doubtful.


Kingdom of Heaven - Once considered a big contender, now pretty much gone and forgotten. Despite Ridley Scott, this one didn't turn out to be the next Gladiator and even Troy scored slightly better reviews last year. I see no nominations for this one.


Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith - This one obviously won't be another Return of the King, but I think that the tech noms are assured. I mean, c'mon, this is Star Wars. I think we are looking at a locked up Best Visual Effects nomination (and a very likely win) as well as Best Sound nom and Best Sound Editing nom, same results as The Phantom Menace.


Crash - Crash is probably the best-received pre-September movie that also made quite a splash at the box-office, especially for this movie's standards, but it is also a controversal movie that has clearly split many people's opinions. Paul Haggis, last year's Best Adapted Screenplay nominee for Million Dollar Baby will assure that the movie won't go unnoticed whatsoever at this year's Academy Awards. I don't think that the Best Original Screenplay category is very strong this year, thus I can easily see this one being nominated. Moreover, I think that of all pre-September releases it has the best chances at a Best Picture nomination, even moreso than Cinderella Man. I just think that the love for the movie is hard to ignore and the box-office of opver $50 million is enough as well. I don't peg it as a Best Picture nominee yet, but it certainly resides at the 6th or the 7th spot on my list. Now the acting categories can be interesting. On the one hand I am pretty sure that someone will get nominated for the Best Supporting Actor award, but on the other hand, this movie contains so many outstanding supporting performances that I sense a very possible split of votes here, resulting in no nomination. The prime contenders for the nod are Don Cheadle, Terrence Howard (who once again might get the votes for him split with Hustle & Flow) and Matt Dillon. I also think, this one might get some tech awards. I'll be optimistic and predict the follwing nominations: Best Original Screenplay, Best Supporting Actor (Don Cheadle or Matt Dillon), Best Score (I hope this one is eligible) and Best Editing. I also think that if any pre-September flick will get a Best Picture nomination, it will be Crash.


Cinderella Man - Obviously the first movies that come to one's mind when considering this movie are Seabiscuit and Million Dollar Baby. I think, however, that these comparisons might rather hurt the movie than benefit it because it would simply be a "token nominee". The box-office was decent, but for the kind of the movie it was, it was rather unimpressive. Ron Howard, Russell Crowe and Renee Zellwegeer all have a great track record with the Oscars, but I think it's not their time this time around. I am sure the Golden Globes will be more generous towards them, but as for the Oscars, I have hard time seeing the movie getting any major nominations. Even Paul Giamatti should be snubbed once more. I mean he has been better before and was not nominated, I don't see the Academy giving him a chance here... Then again, I just have hard time seeing it getting zero nominations, thus I predict it to get nominations for Best Sound and Best Editing. Out of the major noms, Giamatti still has the best shot...but I just don't see it happening. Unless we see more failures in December, then I might rethink this stance.


War of the Worlds - Spierlberg's big summer blockbuster never get completely unnoticed by the Academy and in almost every other year I'd be predicting a Best Visual Effects nomination here, but this year just seems too strong with King Kong, Harry Potter and Revenge of the Sith. It might edge out Kong or Potter, but I doubt it. Therefore, I see only the following nominations: Best Sound, Best Sound Editing.


Charlie and the Chocolate Factory - Nothing major here, but some good tech noms should result. I predict Best Score and Best Art Direction. Potentially Best Make-Up as well...


Broken Flowers - Too small, too unconventional and not all that praisd. No nominations, even though it would deserve one for Best Score.

__________________________________________________________________________________________________



That's about it. What are your thoughts?

Cinderella Man had fantastic costumes and art direction. I still think Giamatti is in the top 10 for Best Supporting Actor.

I hope Charlie's score is nominated over the inferior Corpse Bride score.

I think your Sound Editing predictions are way off, above you've given away 4 of the 5 nominations without taking into account any of the bigger Oscarish films. Likely there will be one or two of the Best Picture films (I think Walk the Line is a lock and probably Munich maybe) then two of the following: Star Wars, Kong, War of the Worlds, Potter, Narnia... these are sound guys, they are more likely to nominate effects heavy blockbusters here. Walk the Line gets a pass because music tends to do well here (Chicago, Ray, Moulin Rouge). And then maybe something like Geisha or New World.

And last year The Terminal had fantastic art direction too. Doesn't mean it got nominated.

First of all, I have given only two Sound Editing noms. Star Wars and War of the Worlds. Second of all, I am very certain about at least one of them - Star Wars and I think that WotW's sound editing was masterfully done.

Unless you are talking just Best Sound. I have given 3 of those and the only one I am uncertain about is Cinderella Man. I am pretty sure about Star Wars and WotW here as well.

I read Crash's "Score" as "Sound".

Dyslexia + me sucks sometimes.