Well, the movie that used to be pretty much one of the frontrunners for this year's Oscars have started out rather unimpressively out of the gates with 40% at RT (after five reviews) and some mostly "just decent" early reviews.

Still, the movie still has a huge push behind it. If you need to be convinced, just take a look at this thread by Loyal.

To those who will try and say that the same has been said about Jarhead, I would like to remind you that Jarhead's strengths were considered the war-movie genre and Sam Mendes. Geisha just has infinitely more.

Rob Marshall delivered one of the most-nominated movies ever with Chicago and if there is something he has definitely proven with Chicago, then that is that he is great with production values and style. One might argue over the movie's quality, but you must admit that it was a visual feast at least. As you may notice, he works with the same team on the movie's costume and production design as he did when making Chicago.

When you also have Steven Spielberg as the producer and John Williams as the composr, what really can go wrong?

Granted, the response so far has certainly not been as overwhelming as most have expected, but I really really have hard time believing that it still won't get plentiful of Oscar noms.



So what's the worst it can do, nominations-wise?



I think the very worst would be something similar to Cold Mountain. Funnily enough that was also a movie by a director whose movie won Oscars big time not too long ago (The English Patient) and it was also a history-based "epic" and an adaptation of an acclaimed and best-selling novel. Cold Mountain scored eight nominations at the Golden Globes in its year and shocked many not getting nominated for Best Picture in its year. It still scored seven Academy Awards nominations: Best Song (two noms), Best Score, Best Cinematography, Best Editing, Best Actor and Best Supporting Actress. It won only the Best Sup. Actress trophy.

Before anyone jumps at me now, I still think that Geisha will be nominated for Best Picture and most likely Best Director as well, unless there is a major screw-up with this movie. But I am speaking of the worst-case scenario here. In that scenario, I think Cold Mountain is the best recent comparison I can come up with.

I don't see Memoirs of a Geisha getting less than 7 nominations. That would be the worst I'd say it will do. Those are the ones I am seeing in the worst-case scenario:

Best Score
Best Costume Design
Best Cinematography
Best Art Direction
Best Editing
Best Actress
Best Supporting Actress


What do you think is the worst it can perform nominations-wise?

5 I guess

Best Score - Given
Best Costume Design - Given
Best Cinematography - Given
Best Art Direction - Given
Best Supporting Actress - Given

Best Lead Actress is sooooooo weak this year but if there was a dip in momentum, it would be here.

Best Editing. I don't know, it should be a given. But maybe something like HP4 could steal it's nom.

7 is dead on. I'm stretching credibility with 5.

I agree with loyal. Editing noms are sometimes odd, with obvious choices left out for Big Budget Harry Potter types (although you could argue that MEMOIRS is a big budget Harry Potter type). And Actress looks iffy right now.

I could easily see it losing out in score, too, because the music branch gets off on confusing the hell out of everybody.

Hmmm, unless it is declared not eligible (for whatever reasons), I don't see it not being nominated. It is John Williams we are talking about here.

I agree that Editing is the most fickle one because the Academy has made odd choices about it in the past, but I think it will happen.

I haven't looked at the "decent" or rotten reviews but I'm still pretty pumped for this. After reading just a couple of articles, including one of Time's pieces on it in early November, Geisha turned from something I had to predict to something I REALLY want to see and have big hopes for.

I agree that even if it does disappoint, it will garner quite a few noms. It could be this year's Gangs of New York!

HA!

In my apathy in regards to all things Memoirs-related, I never knew John Williams was doing the score. Indeed, when I suggested it might miss out on score, I was thinking "depends on how many random John Williams scores they can find to nominate!"

Yeah, it pretty much can't miss.

If it's getting Editing, it's getting Picture nom. The two categories correlate very well. And if it's getting both Supporting Actress and Actress, along with all the techs, it's in for Picture as well (Nicole Kidman not getting in for CM was the telling sign when the nominations were announced). So I'd say 5 as loyal has because if it gets all those 7, I can't see it not getting the big one.

I like loyals list above but I'd say it's a lock for adapted screenplay nom

But CM got Editing as well as Actor. Is it really that much of a difference between Actor and Actress?

Hmm, good point. I'd say since actress and supporting actress are the only two acting categories Memoirs is expected to compete unlike CM's three, if it gets both, there will be really no "snubs" and thus not getting picture nod will seem weird.

Gotta love that Akiva.

Akiva puzzles me.

A Beautiful Mind...

Batman and Robin

I don't think it will be nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay without getting a Best Picture nom.

Right now, I see it getting both, but I don't see it getting just the screenplay nom.

Besides that, I read that the novel was not very well-adapted in some reviews, but that's besides the point.

I forgot Make-Up. It might very well get it as wll.

I think the best comparison for its worst case scenario is The Last Samurai - 1 supporting acting nom, 3 techs.

Something like this:

- Supporting Actress
- Art Direction
- Costume Design
- Score/Cinematography


The Last Samurai, which also starred Ken Watanabe - and was also set in Japan, got Supporting Actor, Art Direction, Costume design and Sound



but I still think it'll get Picture and Director, along with at least 5 other nominations..

I'm not certain with Director.

Costumes (will win)
Make-Up
Art Direction
Actress
Supporting Actress

Most likely:

Score
Picture
Cinematography
Editing
Director

I'm not completely convinced on Score. John William has done a lot of fantastic work this year and although I have personal bias for it, I think his Star Wars work is notable.

Just to clarify, the reason I said screenplay is it seems to me that if the screenplay isn't excellent in a movie of this kind then the chance of the movie itself being excellent is pretty small. Serious movies seem more dependent on good writing than your average sith/batman/kingkong type blockbuster.

But as the kids like to say these days, whatever.

I forgot Screenplay too.

But Screenplay and Best Picture rarely line up.

I think Geisha is far more high-profile than The Last Samurai, with Spielberg behind it and John Williams and Marshall coming off Chicago...

Well in terms of win chances. Going up against Spielberg the director and williams again in Munich.

Monster House for Best Picture!

Does anybody think gender will play a role with the amount Memoirs wins this year?

Being that the Academy is largely male and white and this is a movie about asian women?

Hmmmm......


33% at RT and an Average Rating of 5.1/10.

http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/memoirs_of_a_geisha/

This year's Alexander?

That is really worrisome.

What the worst it can do?

...Gong Li doesn't get an acting nom.

That would suck.

For me personally, the Film Exerpience is a site I like, and one of the best Oscar commentary sites around. That review (a C-) is pretty striking to me. They took it off their Oscar charts and moved Crash into their five.

It still doesn't really mean anything. Things can turn around.

Nathaniel never had Memoirs in his top 5 since he had doubt from the beginning. I love his site, and he is a harsh grader in general, giving both Finding Neverland and Ray a C last year.

Memoirs just got another rave from Spirituality and Health, of all places, to raise the average to 43%. I'm not worried yet because

1) I expect the film to receive harsher reviews due to many holding grudge against Marshall for Chicago's success;
2) More importantly, all the reviews so far show a trend: the positive ones are raves, while the negative ones still have good things to say about the film. That leads me to believe as more reviews come in, they will average out to be positive;
3) Both Cold Mountain and Ray started out below 50%;
4) Also with Nathaniel's review counted, it means most of the negative reviews we know so far have been counted, while the positive ones from Time and other sources haven't.