Can Aeon Flux topple HP4 and open at number one next weekend?


















Haha just kidding. It'll be lucky to have a final that's bigger than HP's weekend next week...

So just how much will Aeon do next weekend?

BJ thinks 12m-16m next wknd

Aeon Flux will be lucky to make $15 million next weekend. I'm thinking around the same PTA as Elektra, giving it about $10 million.

The T.V. spots rock man, same footage from the movie, but instead of that craptacular music from the trailer they play Trapt - Headstong, it goes awesome with the film

Indeed, it does, but the fact of the matter is that action films like Elektra and Catwoman with female leads (especially ones that look cheesy) don't do well. Action films in general haven't been doing all that well this year. People are saving money for event films these days.

The question is actually HOW BADLY Aeon Flux is going to do. I mean look at the facts:

- It stars Charlize Theron who I certainly think is a non-draw as of now.

- The reviews certainly won't be raving

- This year has been bad for action flicks

- This perfectly fits into the scheme of bombing action flicks: A high concept with no drawing potential behind

- It opens in an estimated 2,500 theatres, almost 1,000 less than Stealth which opened in the summer

- There is seriously no HYPE whatsoever that I see for this one

- It is a sci-fi actioner that opens in December...haven't we learned anything from Star Trek: Nemesis and Blade: Trinity. At least those two had fanbses behind them!

- It is an action flick with a female lead (see Catwoman and Elektra)...at least both of those had fanbases, bigger theatre counts, more advertising and somewhat bigger stars


My prediction:

Opening weekend - $10.8 million

Total gross - $30.1 million

I think you're too high on the legs, Lecter. I don't think it's going to benefit from Christmas at all.

Even Blade: Trinity and Star Trek did.

Those two opened later in the month, though, didn't they?

One week. They were naturally more frontloaded two.

I am afraid I might be overpredicting the opening weekend, though. I calculated this with around 2,800 theatres. If it really gets only 2,500 theatres and no more than 1-2 screens per theatre, I expect an opening of around $9-9.5 million and a total around $25 million. I mean really, how many are hyped for it?

I hope Harry Potter 4 remains on top that week. It would be pathetic for HP4 to lose out to the horrid looking Aeon Flux.

if Aeon does $25+ mill then it'll pass Harry.

It only needs about $20 million to pass Potter. It's still, like, impossible because that would require around $8000 for the PTA.

It won't pass $15 million.

I really think it is just another missed chance. I mean with this release date (one of the worst weekends of the year), how could have expected it to do well?

It's coming out next weekend?

Okay, maybe it's just my area, but I didn't know that. I have seen maybe one commercial for it and that's it. The only noticable thing about it was the blades of grass almost cutting her throat. I also haven't seen a trailer for a few weeks now in any of the theaters I have gone to. Maybe I'm just missing the commercials and trailers, but if the marketing is this bad, it'll barely make $10 million next weekend.

it seems like everytime i switch to mtv there's a tv spot playing.

I think it is based on a MTV show.

I think there is an outside chance. HP can drop to about 15m-16m at the low end in which case it would have some shot IMO.

Yeah, but ST had the holiday boost in the 3rd weekend while Blade 3 had it in the 4th. AF will have to wait until the 5th. By then I'm not sure it will have many theaters.

Yeah, and if it's weekend pace is 12/5/2.5/1 it's gonna be gone before the holidays even hit. It has Narnia second weekend, King Kong third, and a huge amount of releases weekend #4. I don't see how it's going to do well at all with legs, even if it does somehow open well.

Indeed it is. MTV actually just released the entire series of the show on DVD.

I see the film not topping ten million for the weekend. Sci-fi doesn't sell unless there's a big star or director behind it and female-driven action films don't sell either. This could easily make half of my prediction because I don't see any demand for it.

8.5/20

your crazy HP under predicting is starting to make you look like a hater

Fiest of all, Potter won't fall below $18 million and second of all, how in the world is Aeon Flux even supposed to top $12-13 million?

I wish anything would beat out HARRY POTTER this weekend. Of course it will still be number one though

Opening - $7 million
Closing - $19 million

Aeon Flux is its own worst enemy.

It looks like garbage.