I agree that the animated aspect of Toy Story 2 was its disadvantage.

I also do agree with your points made about Sideways. It just doesn't ave any real back-up to get nominated for Best Picture. About Schmidt and Adaptation all had support from big stars like Meryl Streep, Nicholas Cage and Jack Nicholson and the critics loved the movies. Yet they didn't receive Best Picture noms.

Furthrmore, I think that Sideways is pretty comparable to American Splendor. That movie got tons of critical acclaim and also starred the indie king Paul Giamatti. It got 95% at RT and a similar rating as Sideways, yet it did not receive a Best Picture nomination. Much like American Splendor, Sideways is just way too low-profile to get a nom, I fear.

November 24th (after seeing Sideways)

1. The Aviator (=)
2. Closer (=)
3. The Phantom of the Opera (=)
4. Finding Neverland (+1)
5. Ray (-1)
6. Sideways (=)
7. Hotel Rwanda
8. A Very Long Engagement (+1)
9. Kinsey (+1)
10. Alexander (-3)
11. the Passion of the Christ (-3)
12. Vera Drake (=)
13. Fahrenheit 9/11 (=)
14. Spanglish (N)
15. The Motorcycle Diaries (-1)

It will change again within the next 3 days after I see Alexander

Million Dollar Baby seems to be picking up a lot of buzz lately. I had no idea what it was about until this month. What do you all think of its chance?

The Aviator is a given. From this vantage, it looks like the easy winner.

Closer is turning out to be the one move that ends up as good as everyone expected it to be. It feels very much like The Hours in that its cast and strong performances seem to be the key to getting it a nomination.

I still think you could throw a coin up in the air and pick Sideways, Kinsey, Ray or Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind.

The final slot seems to be the crowd pleaser spot. I fully expect it to be a battle between Phantom of the Opera and The Passion of the Christ... and I think it will come down on the side of The Passion. If Finding Neverland is nominated, it will likely be in this "spot". Finding Neverland, I'm not convinved on yet, mostly because of external politics.

There is a lot of reasons to doubt A Very Long Engagement, but now that Alexander is dead, I think it has a real honest to god chance.

The Aviator
Closer
Ray/Kinsey
The Passion of the Christ
A Very Long Engagement

It is picking up buzz?

I still haven't heard anything about it, aside from the fact that it is directed by Eastwood and stars Hilary Swank.

With Alexander out of the race now, my new predictions are:

The Phantom of the Opera
Hotel Rwanda/Mar Adentro
The Aviator
Finding Neverland
Closer

The Phantom of the Opera can really go either way. Hotel Rwanda/Mar Adentro will win some awards, but not Best Picture. Finding Neverland is getting good reviews, but not astounding ones. It will get a Best Picture nom, but I would refrain from saying that it'll win. It still gives off this Big Fish-vibe, in my opinion. That leaves us with Closer and The Aviator. Both could win, but I think that the Academy will make it Scorcese's year.

That seems to be my exact predictions at the moment without Mar Adentro and with Ray just on the outside.

and yes, Million Dollar Baby is gaining buzz.... I think it's late buzz and late release date will prevent it from going really big like Mystic River, but it will play its part before the end!

November 26th (haven't seen anything since my last ranking, but will se at least 2 movies before the weekend is out)

1. Aviator (=)
2. Closer (=)
3. Phantom of the Opera (=)
4. Finding Neverland (=)
5. Hotel Rwanda (+2)
6. Million Dollar Baby (N)
7. Ray (-2)
8. Sideways (-2)
9. Kinsey (=)
10. Passion (+1)
11. A Very Long Engagement (-3)
12. Mar Edentro (N)
13. Vera Drake (-1)
14. Fahrenheit 9/11 (-1)
15. Alexander (-5)
16. Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind (N)
17. Spanglish (-3)
18. The Motorcycle Diaries (-3)

Oh, come on, you can't honestly think Alexander has a better shot than Eternal Sunshine (or Spanglish and Motorcycle Diaries for that matter) :wink:

You're too fast for me Rod.... I knew I was forgetting one other player discussed on the boards.
After I responded to your last post in the other Actress thread I was gonna come and edit this one and put in Eternal Sunshine, but you beat me to it.
However, at the moment I will give Alexander the upper hand because I have yet to see it, but I'm sure it will quickly fall to the bottom of the list!

There are two locks at this point. The Aviator - due to Oscar politics - and a musical/comedy - due to consistent patterns! So, we've got:
1. The Aviator
2. Musical/Comedy (To be occupied by "Ray" or "Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind")

Early buzz on Phantom suggests that at least a fifth hates the film. And, early buzz on "The Aviator" suggest that the film is good, but not great. I think it's improbable for the Academy to nominate two films that aren't really oscar-worthy. There's the slim chance that Spanglish could explode or Sideways could pull away with the Musical/Comedy Golden Globe. Then again, Sideways doesn't have Nicholson's star power and Columbia will mainly be pushing Closer. Critic-wise, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind is the better film, but Jamie Foxx IS a lock (and almost a win) for "Ray". So, right now, there's about a 50/50 chance for either of the
films.

Then...There's the foreign film factor (The Sea Inside, A Very Long Engagement, and The Motorcycle Diaries), there's the controversy factor (The Passion of the Christ, Fahrenheit 9/11), there's the OTHER biopics (Hotel Rwanda, Kinsey, Finding Neverland), and there's a little film called "Million Dollar Baby" and a big film called "Closer", both of which are counting on acting.

Although a lot of us want to want to deny it, there's got to be a balance. We can't have The Aviator, Kinsey, AND Finding Neverland...

This is the year of the bio-pic, so I do think there's bound to be one other than "The Aviator". Finding Neverland is the crowd-pleaser, Kinsey is the film for adults (much like About Schmidt), and Hotel Rwanda tackles serious matters. Finding Neverland and Kinsey have similar reviews, though Neeson's performance is supposedly better. Hotel Rwanda, on the other hand, has already won a number of awards. I'd be inclined to pick Hotel Rwanda, but UA probably can't push it enough. Also, with a limited
release on the 22nd, it's doubtful as to how many people will have seen it in time for nominations. FOX Searchlight isn't that experienced in the awards, and Miramax already has a film up. If UA can pull through with the marketing, Hotel Rwanda should get the third nomination. It has a "The Pianist"/"Schindler's List" type feel.

The controvery factor, let's face it, isn't going to pull through. The Academy shouldn't award a film like The Passion and it really doesn't have a chance at a win anyways. Fahrenheit 9/11's buzz, on the other hand, is dying. Moore should have stuck with Best Documentary. It'd be a lock.

That leaves us with a foreign film, "Closer", and "Million Dollar Baby". "Closer" has already gotten good reviews. It has a great ensemble cast (like Chicago, The Hours, Mystic River, Lost in Translation, and Seabiscuit - which arguably helped those films in the race) and early buzz has been promising. I haven't followed "Closer" much, nor am I really anticipating it (sure, I'll see it), but it seems like an original and profound Oscar choice. "Million Dollar Baby" is WB's only real chance at an Oscar. With Chicago having won two years ago, The Phantom is a long shot. And, with Eastwood being snubbed (in many's opinions) for Mystic River, "Million Dollar Baby" could get a nomination because of politics. With low awareness, though, this, like The Phantom, isn't probable.

Of the three foreign films, "The Sea Inside" should have the best chance. New Line did a fine job marketing the Lord of the Rings movies and they don't have anything else this year. They could campaign for a few "The Notebook" awards and possibly Nicole Kidman's performance in "Birth" (which doesn't really have a chance), but otherwise, nada. Javier Bardem supposedly performed well, and many analysts agree that he has a great chance at Best Actor. "A Very Long Engagement" got in between good and great reviews. The reviews aren't nearly on the same level as "Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon", "Talk to Her", "Y Tu Mama Tambien", "Life is Beautiful", and other foreign films that have been considered for Oscars in past years. "The Motorcycle Diaries" is Focus' other shot at a BP nomination but the glamorization of Guavara doesn't bode well with all. Most agree that it is an effective film, though.

Right now, I'm predicting...

The Aviator (Miramax/Warner Bros)
Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind (Focus Features)
Hotel Rwanda (MGM/United Artists)
Closer (Sony Pictures)
The Sea Inside (Fine Line)*

*Fine Line = division of New Line

I can see Finding Neverland replacing Hotel Rwanda if the marketing division of UA fails and Million Dollar Baby or Kinsey replacing The Sea Inside if the reviews for it are below The Motorcycle Diaries'.

As for the need for there to be a foreign film, there doesn't. It's just likely given the quality of foreign films this year, the strength of Bernal's and Bardem's performance, and Focus' and WB's lack of a film to campaign for.

Of course, I'll prob. be wrong.

WOW. I could bet all I have that Hotel Rwanda, The Sea Inside and Eternal Sunshine won't all get nominated more or less either one of them.

Your picks are just too small, Ross. Most likely Hotel Rwanda and The Sea Inside will both end up with less than $30 million. It is unlikely that three movies with less than $40 million will get nominated at the same time.

How about less than $20 or even $10 million.

Rwanda is coming out at the end of the year in limited release and Oscar nominations are out the third week of January!

True. I do believe that one will get nominated out of these. There is always one small nominee and this year, I expect it to be either Hotel Rwanda or The Sea Within, but there is no way both will be nominated.

I agree and I'm sure it will probably be Rwanda. Only a handful of people have even heard about the Sea Inside here in America... it hasn't started building buzz except for Javier Bardem and that's only inside the industry... the general public don't know about it or him and without at least some major interest, it won't go anywhere.
We'll just have to see how it plays out when it's released.

I also think that it'll rather be Hotel Rwanda than The Sea Inside. However, The Sea Inside seems like pure oscar material and the resonance from the critics so far has been astounding.

I think small films could definitely dominate the oscars this year. Among the "big" films it seems like The Aviator is the only one that's a sure thing, It could be '96 all over again.

Raffiki, what did you think about Eternal Sunshine? I just sense a little bias against it. Unless it's actually bias in favor of Alexander.

I understand why you might need to see a movie like Kinsey to decide if it will be a contender, but that's not the case with Alexander. Having not seen it I can tell you it has absolutely no chance of getting a best picture nomination. NONE. Movies like 13 Going on 30, Mean Girls, Collin's A Home at the End of the World and just about ever other 2004 release will be nominated before Alexander is.

Even Christmas with the Kranks, Yu-Gi-Oh and Catwoman?

Sure

At least those were able to meet expectations :wink:

I'll post my full analysis, similar to the one in the Best Actor thread, later, but I want to say that I don't see only one big picture being nominated. There will be another one and this will be The Phantom of the Opera in my opinion which I see crossing $100 million.

Well... I thought I had explained myself about Eternal Sunshine in one of the posts of the past week.

I don't have a bias against Eternal Sunshine.
If you check on my Best of 2004 list, I gave it a B+ against my hareshest grading, making it around #10-12 or something like that.

I actually have to rent it to see it again, cuz I watched it like more than half a year ago. I remeber halfway through the movie I was almost bored, but then it picked up. I remember loving the second half and likeing the movie overall. It was great and I think it deserves some nominations which I don't see it getting.

HOWEVER.... I just can't understand how you guys think it will get or is in the running to get a nomination for Best Picture. I don't want to explain the adaptation thing for the third time, but bottom line, if adaptation didn't get a nod, there is almost no way Eternal Sunshine will. It's too small, and for being a quirky movie like that and getting THAT much money at the box office with not much buzz left is not a good sign. Then look at it from the other side.... it made good money for itself but it didn't make enough to break out and thus, get some attention....

Concerning Alexander....
This is a passion project... Not only has Stone been wanting to do it for 20 years.... MANY others have tried and failed. Industry insiders were really anticipating from what I read months ago. No matter what, it still has that sympathy factor.... he deserves it cuz he spend so much of his life on it.... whatever!
Second, I don't trust the critics on this one.... There is no way Troy sucking THAT bad could do significantly better with critics (55% v 16% at rotten tomatoes) than this undertaking... that is why I have reservations until I see it....
If it truly is horrendous, then I have no problem admitting it has no chances. It's just how I think the Academy looks at different films.

I mean if you'll see it already fell from #2 to around #15 or so on my Best Picture predictions in a matter of 2 weeks!

I think Jim Carrey was great in Eternal Sunshine, but we have just as good and better performances and competition. Despite thinking Kate Winslet is far from a nomination for Best Actress, I will go so far as saying as of now, she probably should be in the top 5 or so best of the year.

I just came from Finding Neverland and I must say I was rather stunned at how it was nothing really out of the ordinary. It was a good movie, but I really can't see it in the running for the Oscar. It was a bit slow-paced, it had no epic feel to it, it wasn't really a biography either, but most importantly it never took off. IT had its highlights, yes, but surprisingly it was nowhere near I had coem to expect it to be.
Even Johnny Depp didn't give an astounding performance. He played well, of course, blended into character very well, but the material didn't give him much but silent scenes and whispering lines. The scenes with his wife felt awkward beyond its intention and it just didn't impress me.
There was alot of talk of the young boy playing Peter, who supposedly gives an amazing performance. While he did give an above average performance for anyone given that role, he really shone in only two scenes which won't make it enough to get a nod.... they might still campaign it though....
Kate Winslet was quite good and my favorite part of the movie. I suddenly found some great respect for Kate while watching her in this film and I don't really know what struck it.... she is one of the best actresses today and she is very under-rated. While her turn as the mother of the four boys could get her a nomination, it wasn't as strong as I had hoped.... thus maybe strengething her Eternal Sunshine role (yes, Rod.... you heard right)

Here are my ranking as of November 28

1. The Aviator (=)
2. Phantom of the Opera (+1)
3. Closer (-1)
4. Hotel Rwanda (+1)
5. Ray (+2)
6. Million Dollar Baby (=)
7. Kinsey (+2)
8. Finding Neverland (-4)
9. The Passion (+1)
10. Sideways (-2)
11. Mar Adentro (+1)
12. A Very Long Engagement (-1)
13. Fahrenheit 9/11 (+1)
14. Vera Drake (-1)
15. Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind (+1)
16. Spanglish (+1)
17. Alexander (-2)
18. Before Sunset (N)
19. The Motorcycle Diaries (-1)
20. Kill Bill Volume 2 (N)

My current predictions:

1. The Aviator - Isn't it strange when we consider the 'big' film to be a Miramax film? Compare this to '96 when Miramax was the underdog and won their first best pic with The English Patient.

2. Kinsey - It's a subject Hollywood loves (sex), especially when everyone is talking about moral values. Condon has been noticed by the Academy before (Gods and Monsters won screenplay if I remember correctly) and it has a great cast. This one won't peak before the nominations come around.

3. Closer - Sex again and legendary director making a comeback with a great cast. I'm not sure if it can actually win the best prize, but it will win at least one acting nomination.

4. The Phantom Of The Opera - With Kinsey and Closer being very character driven and without a lot of spectacle, something over the top needs to be in. The Golden Globes will help this build some buzz.

5. I think this is a toss up between Hotel Rwanda and Million Dollar Baby. Hotel Rwanda has an important subject matter (which we all know is very important with Oscar. Plus Don Cheadle is way past due for some kind of recognition.

I know it's a little early to know for sure about Million Dollar Baby, but Warner Brothers is becoming an Oscar player and the buzz is great. Some may feel Clint needs more recognition after Mystic River missed out on the big prize last year.

Other possible spoilers: A Very Long Engagement and Sideways. Both will have competition from similar films. Engagement will be fighting against The Motorcycle Diaries and Mar Edentro as a foreign language film and Sideways is a relationship drama focusing on four characters ( Closer and We Don't Live Here Anymore).

1. It has a good shot at a best Screenplay award or nomination in the Origional category which kinda is an indicator that it is at least in contention for a Best Picture nomination. Kaufman has been nominated before (Adaptation and Being John Malcovich)

2. It has BIG performances from it's two main actors, including Kate Winslett who will be touted for an acting award this year either for this or Finding Neverland.

3. It's Focus' only picture that has a real shot at... anything, this year. And Focus has proved over the last few years that they can push a film.

4. It was a pretty big critical success in its own right.


People have underestimated the Academy before.


So is Sideways, Hotel Rwanda and Vera Drake. Those films are in fact smaller. In fact, there is not a lot of huge eligible films that are really viable right now. It's got as good of chances as Kinsey or even Finding Neverland (at this stage) in that regard.


Who said it's buzz was dead? In fact it's buzz is BACK. It is quickly getting awards heat as it gathers some international kudos. It was nominated at the Australian Film Institute this year as "best foreign film" against Return of the King, Mystic River and Lost in Translation. All 3 of those films could have easily won this year and people seem to think Sunshine is in the same league!

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0338013/awards


It's as high profile as Lost in Translation or In the Bedroom.

Alexander is dead. It is DEAD. It's not even worth talking about anymore. I mean if you want to talk costumes or maybe even a slight chance for Kilmer then okay, but otherwise...


It should be lower than Troy at this point.


He would be in my top five, but I agree he won't be nominated. The male category is waaaaaay to strong.


I wouldn't say she is far at all. She has two high profile movies and there is not a lot of really high profile female performances this year.

She is in the top 10 at least, probably for BOTH films.

andaroo, what's your gut feeling about Million Dollar Baby?