I think it's got a great shot, and at this point and time, it's the frontrunner. Lots can happen between now and then.

Then again, last year BKB predicted Ray to win

there goes WTL chance flying out the window.

I think Phoenix and Witherspoon have a fantastic shot at acting wins, but the overall picture reception hasn't been as strong as I anticipated. Granted, I still need to see the picture, but I'm not so sure it's in the bag...

Witherspoon will easily win, I dont think theres really gonna be any other noteworthy performance by a actress this year as much as her performance, Phoenix has a chance. The movie though? Nope, slim to none, even though it's probably a lock to be nominated even without knowing the rest of the nominess, im gonna say it's already the least likely to win. Kinda like Ray last year.

I once called this film a lock as well BKB, but I now think its going ot have to battle it out for the win if it realy wants it.

I tend to agree with lennier and killuminati- it's looking like a better-than-decent bet for a nomination right now, but the win? Ehhh.....

If Munich and AND Memoirs both completely stall out of the gate, maybe, but otherwise I'm not sure that a moderately well-recieved Johnny Cash biopic has the smell of Oscar victory. On the other hand, however, its looking like a box office success, and is succeeding without any award help, so....

Maybe?

And not to be resident spelling checker/dickhead, but "confidentally' isn't a word. 'Confidentially' is. So is "Confidently,' which I assume is what is meant, since you aren't keeping this prediction a secret.

Won't win. Same/worse response as Ray, which was the 5th nominee last year. I can't see this as a frontrunner.

Again, anybody that is saying it won't win because Ray didn't win is not thinking and just giving a very cliched response. We might as well just say that Chicago didn't win because Moulin Rogue didn't. How true would that be?

I'm certinaly not a 'Walk the Line is gonna win Best Picture' guy, but Maverikk's point re: Ray is a good one.

Plus Ray was, you know, awful.

As far as reviews go, some of you guys are thinking that the films with stellar reviews always win or that politics don't come into play, as the academy rewards stuff based on consensus opinions of moviegoers and critics. Just look at Gladiator and A Beautiful Mind, and then tell me that Walk the Line doesn't have good enough reviews to win.

[table][col color=#C0C0C0]Best Picture Winners 2000-2004[/table]

[table][row color=#000000][col]Film[col color=#000000]Fresh Reviews[col color=#000000]Rotten Reviews[col color=#000000]Tomatometer Score[col color=#000000]COTC Score[col color=#000000]Average Rating[col color=#000000]COTC Rating
[row][col]Gladiator[col]98[col]29[col]77%[col]72%[col]7.0[col]6.4
[row][col]A Beautiful Mind[col]117[col]32[col]79%[col]82%[col]7.2[col]7.3
[row][col]Chicago[col]163[col]24[col]87%[col]94%[col]7.9[col]8.2
[row][col]Return of the King[col]205[col]11[col]95%[col]97%[col]8.7[col]8.7
[row][col]Million Dollar Baby[col]184[col]18[col]91%[col]95%[col]8.4[col]8.6[/table]

I like how BKB just takes the movie he likes and pinpoints that one as the winner.

With that said...

I CONFIDENTALLY predict that Walk the Line has no shot at winning. A nomination? Sure. But like lennier said, reception has only been good, not great.

Beautiful Mind won because it was the front runner for months and months. It had one of the biggest stars in the world, fresh off an Oscar victory. It had a powerful director who had not yet won an Oscar, but was much loved within the Hollywood hierarchy. Plus, it was of that most blatantly shameless of Academy genres: The Mental Illness movie. How could Hollywood resist? Everyone just kind of assumed it was gonna win, and it did. That's why if Munich is better than good, it'll win too.

Gladiator won because it was a faux epic blockbuster that everybody fell for. Epics get special treatment from the academy. It was a return to that old academy standby, the "sword & sandal" picture. (Indeed, the academy's been feeling nostalgic lately, i.e. Chicago). They ran a great campaign that made people forget it was just a decently made action picture, not a timeless epic. Plus, look at the other contenders: CTHD was foreign, it was never going to win. Traffic was too cold. Etc.

I think we spend too much time looking at Rotten Tomatoes, actually. It doesn't matter what Emanuel Levy, other lame internet sites, etc. think of a movie. What matters is what the "Cream of the Crop" (Which doesn't necessarily consist of those designated by RT) thinks, as well as that most fickle of groups, the Academy. Critics loved Kinsey. The academy said "fuck you, Doctor." There are so, so, so many factors involved in any Oscar victory/failure.

Rotten Tomatoes isn't necessarily a good indicator of actual response to a movie. That's why something like Chocolat can get nominated despite about 60% fresh. Rotten Tomaotes is an Oscar macguffin. Walk the Line's RT score neither hurts nor helps it. What does seem important is that few were over-the-moon about it.

Basicly, it'll pretty much be Ray this year IMO. The only difference I see is that WTL has two frontrunner actors instead of one. Still, only one will win I think(Reese Witherspoon). But Ray has things on WTL too. Ray Charles died last year, and a movie released right after he did grabbed sympathy that would not have been there before. Ray was a slightly more original fare, we hadn't seen a big music-biopic for a while, Ray surprised some people. With WTL, there was Ray last year, so it sits as just another biopic.

Chicago has two (almost) frontrunner actors, while Moulin Rouge had one. Still, only one will win I think (Catherine Zeta Jones).

Moulin Rouge was slightly more original fare, we hadn't seen a big splashy musical in a while, MR surprised some people. With Chicago, there was MR last year, so it sits as just another musical.

Anyway, Ray Charles death did indeed help Ray. And it needed it, because Ray was stinky poo. Walk the Line, meanwhile, is standing on its own, without anybody dying. A biopic doesn't need its subject to have died in the last 12 months to be successful.

But Chicago got ultra-raves, and was academy bait. It also had I'm almost sure 5 acting noms/frontrunners. Moulin Rouge also had much more impact on the movie-landscape than Ray. And Chicago was a huge crowd-pleasing hit which went on to gross 180 mil.

And anyways,

Big flashy musicals----------->Music-biopics

There is a very good chance Phoenix wont win, I could see Heath Ledger or Eric Bana wining, but as of right now Phoenix is the easy favorite for best actor.

People act like Walk the Line is THAT much better then Ray and it has a way better shot at wining or something, thats not the case at all, if you take out the great performances you have a mediocre picture, why would the Academy give a music biopic such as this one that isnt very original or anything amazing best picture? The only way this is winning best picture is if every single oscar hyped movie coming out turns out to be mediocre.

Wow. Am I seriously the only one that thinks, after seeing the movie, it's chances at a nomination slightly decreased, much less the WIN for Best Picture.

I think it's still pretty safe to get a nod.

But I will GUARANTEE 100% that it will not win.
If it does you guys can suspend me from these forums for 2 months after the "win."

No. It had the least complex delivery out of any of the suggested winners thus far, and admittedly, its production value and technological finesse were limited. I honestly think it will walk away with at least one acting win if not two, but as far as the movie itself, its not going to get wins in bp, direction, or screenplay. For those who didn't like Ray, I think in retrospect Ray was better than Walk the Line. I had issues with it (gave them both C+) but Hackford did alot more camerawork, choreography, changed the landscape more often, had a much more lavish production, a far richer supporting number of cast members, and tried to be more complex in showing how Charles' past affected his present habits. I just found Walk the Line kind of simple, a bit boring, having nothing to do with either of the two musicians actually, and was pretty generic. The only thing that saved the movie was the acting/singing, and the fact that Carter and Cash's names was tied to it rather than Mariah Carey's.

Walk the Line will not win Best Picture.

I saw it and loved it, but it just doesn't have that...quality...about it that most winners do.

I do see Witherspoon winning right now, with Phoenix as a possibility too.

It's destined for a nomination - unless five other films pop up between now and 2006 that blow it out the water - but I sincerely doubt it'll win.

Well at least you're being honest Libs.

I don't think so but it has a shot. If i had to put money right now on who would win I'd divide the money between Pride and New World. But I'm eccentric like that.

Pride...?