used xiayun's:

[table][row color=#0f7a9e]Rank[col]Film[col]Predicted[col]Estimate[col]Est. Accuracy[row color=#ffCC66] 1 [col] Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire [col] 100 [col] 95 [col] 94.74% [row color=#ffCC66] 2 [col] Walk the Line [col] 20 [col] 23.5 [col] 85.11% [row color=#CCDDFF] 3 [col] Saw 2 [col] 4.4 [col] 4.0 [col] 90% [row color=#CCDDFF] 4 [col] The Legend of Zorro [col] 3.3 [col] 2.4 [col] 62.50% [row color=#CCDDFF] 5 [col] Zathura [col] 6.6 [col] 5 [col] 68.00% [row color=#CCDDFF] 6 [col] Derailed [col] 7.2 [col] 7 [col] 97.14% [row color=#CCDDFF] 7 [col] Pride & Prejudice [col] 2.2 [col] 2 [col] 90.00% [row color=#CCDDFF] 8 [col] Get Rich or Die Tryin' [col] 4.8 [col] 4.2 [col] 85.71% [row color=#CCDDFF] 9 [col] Chicken Little [col] 15 [col] 13.5 [col] 88.89% [row color=#CCDDFF] 10 [col] Jarhead [col] 4.6 [col] 4.9 [col] 93.88% [/table][table][row color=#0f7a9e][col]Average[row color=#CCDDFF] OVERALL (estimate) [col]85.6%[row color=#ffCC66] New Release [col] 89.92% [row color=#CCDDFF] Still in Theater [col] 84.52% [/table]

Damn Zorro!

Edited: with new projections

harry potter will not make 100m.

[table][row color=#0f7a9e]Rank[col]Film[col]Predicted[col]Estimate[col]Est. Accuracy[row color=#ffCC66] 1 [col] Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire [col] 97.2 [col] 95 [col] 97.68% [row color=#ffCC66] 2 [col] Walk the Line [col] 20.5 [col] 23 [col] 89.13% [row color=#CCDDFF] 3 [col] Chicken Little [col] 15.6 [col] 13.2 [col] 81.82% [row color=#CCDDFF] 4 [col] Derailed [col] 7.2 [col] 6.7 [col] 92.54% [row color=#CCDDFF] 5 [col] Zathura [col] 7.4 [col] 5.1 [col] 54.90% [row color=#CCDDFF] 6 [col] Jarhead [col] 7.0 [col] 4.8 [col] 54.17% [row color=#CCDDFF] 7 [col] Get Rich or Die Tryin' [col] 6.8 [col] 4.3 [col] 41.86% [row color=#CCDDFF] 8 [col] Saw II [col] 4.7 [col] 4 [col] 82.50% [row color=#CCDDFF] 9 [col] The Legend of Zorro [col] 3.4 [col] 2.4 [col] 58.33% [row color=#CCDDFF] 10 [col] P&P [col] 3.0 [col] 2 [col] 50.00% [/table][table][row color=#0f7a9e][col]Average[row color=#CCDDFF] OVERALL (estimate) [col]70.29%[row color=#ffCC66] New Release [col] 93.41% [row color=#CCDDFF] Still in Theater [col] 64.51% [/table]

DAMN holdovers

EDIT: BOM Numbers

[table][row color=#0f7a9e]Rank[col]Film[col]Predicted[col]Estimate[col]Est. Accuracy[row color=#ffCC66] 1 [col] Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire [col] 100.3 [col] 95 [col] 94.42% [row color=#ffCC66] 2 [col] Walk the Line [col] 22.9 [col] 23 [col] 99.57% [row color=#CCDDFF] 3 [col] Chicken Little [col] 14.1 [col] 13.2 [col] 93.18% [row color=#CCDDFF] 4 [col] Derailed [col] 6.5 [col] 6.7 [col] 97.01% [row color=#CCDDFF] 5 [col] Zathura [col] 6.0 [col] 5.1 [col] 82.35% [row color=#CCDDFF] 6 [col] Jarhead [col] 5.7 [col] 4.8 [col] 81.25% [row color=#CCDDFF] 7 [col] Get Rich or Die Tryin' [col] 4.4 [col] 4.3 [col] 97.67% [row color=#CCDDFF] 8 [col] Saw II [col] 4 [col] 4 [col] 100.00% [row color=#CCDDFF] 9 [col] The Legend of Zorro [col] 2.9 [col] 2.4 [col] 79.17% [row color=#CCDDFF] 10 [col] Pride & Prejudice [col] 2.2 [col] 2 [col] 90.00% [/table][table][row color=#0f7a9e][col]Average[row color=#CCDDFF] OVERALL (estimate) [col]91.46%[row color=#ffCC66] New Release [col] 96.99% [row color=#CCDDFF] Still in Theater [col] 90.08% [/table]

BOM numbers came, so maybe better to wait for new projections.

[table][row color=#0f7a9e]Rank[col]Film[col]Predicted[col]Estimate[col]Est. Accuracy[row color=#ffCC66] 1 [col] Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire [col] 96.7 [col] 95 [col] 98.21% [row color=#ffCC66] 2 [col] Walk the Line [col] 21.3 [col] 23 [col] 92.61% [row color=#CCDDFF] 3 [col] Chicken Little [col] 15.8 [col] 13.2 [col] 80.30% [row color=#CCDDFF] 4 [col] Derailed [col] 6.8 [col] 6.7 [col] 98.51% [row color=#CCDDFF] 5 [col] Zathura [col] 7.2 [col] 5.1 [col] 58.82% [row color=#CCDDFF] 6 [col] Jarhead [col] 6 [col] 4.8 [col] 75.00% [row color=#CCDDFF] 7 [col] Saw II [col] 4.5 [col] 4.5 [col] 100.00% [row color=#CCDDFF] 8 [col] Get Rich or Die Tryin' [col] 5.2 [col] 4.3 [col] 79.07% [row color=#CCDDFF] 9 [col] The Legend of Zorro [col] 3.2 [col] 2.4 [col] 66.67% [row color=#CCDDFF] 10 [col] Prime [col] 2.3 [col] 2 [col] 85.00% [/table][table][row color=#0f7a9e][col]Average[row color=#CCDDFF] OVERALL (estimate) [col]83.42%[row color=#ffCC66] New Release [col] 95.41% [row color=#CCDDFF] Still in Theater [col] 80.42% [/table]

mine is with the new projections made by xiayun.

With BOM numbers, I agree.

88.81% with xiayun's new projections.

Sorry all, Saw II should be projected at $4.0M with the new BOM number.

NO!!

Yay

88.51% then.

[table][row color=#0f7a9e]Rank[col]Film[col]Predicted[col]Estimate[col]Est. Accuracy[row color=#ffCC66] 1 [col] Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire [col] 99 [col] 95 [col] 95.79% [row color=#ffCC66] 2 [col] Walk the Line [col] 25 [col] 23 [col] 91.30% [row color=#CCDDFF] 3 [col] Chicken Little [col] 14 [col] 13.2 [col] 93.94% [row color=#CCDDFF] 4 [col] Derailed [col] 6.9 [col] 6.7 [col] 97.01% [row color=#CCDDFF] 5 [col] Zathura [col] 5.7 [col] 5.1 [col] 88.24% [row color=#CCDDFF] 6 [col] Jarhead [col] 6.1 [col] 4.8 [col] 72.92% [row color=#CCDDFF] 7 [col] Saw II [col] 4.4 [col] 4 [col] 90.00% [row color=#CCDDFF] 8 [col] Get Rich or Die Tryin' [col] 4.2 [col] 4.3 [col] 97.67% [row color=#CCDDFF] 9 [col] The Legend of Zorro [col] 3 [col] 2.4 [col] 75.00% [row color=#CCDDFF] 10 [col] Prime [col] 2.2 [col] 2 [col] 90.00% [/table][table][row color=#0f7a9e][col]Average[row color=#CCDDFF] OVERALL (estimate) [col]89.19%[row color=#ffCC66] New Release [col] 93.55% [row color=#CCDDFF] Still in Theater [col] 88.10% [/table]

I'm hoping my last second change of 22.8 to 25.0 for WTL (and to a much less extent, the change of 98.2 to 99 for HP4) doesn't come back and haunt me.

Derby
[table][row color=#0f7a9e]Rank[col]Film[col]Predicted[col]Estimate[col]Est. Accuracy[row color=#ffCC66] 1 [col] Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire [col] 99.1 [col] 95 [col] 95.68% [row color=#ffCC66] 2 [col] Walk the Line [col] 22.9 [col] 23 [col] 99.57% [row color=#CCDDFF] 3 [col] Chicken Little [col] 15.7 [col] 13.2 [col] 81.06% [row color=#CCDDFF] 4 [col] Derailed [col] 6.5 [col] 6.7 [col] 97.01% [row color=#CCDDFF] 5 [col] Zathura [col] 6.4 [col] 5.1 [col] 74.51% [row color=#CCDDFF] 6 [col] Jarhead [col] 5.6 [col] 4.8 [col] 83.33% [row color=#CCDDFF] 7 [col] Get Rich or Die Tryin' [col] 5.3 [col] 4.3 [col] 76.74% [row color=#CCDDFF] 8 [col] Saw II [col] 4.6 [col] 4 [col] 85.00% [row color=#CCDDFF] 9 [col] The Legend of Zorro [col] 3.1 [col] 2.4 [col] 70.83% [row color=#CCDDFF] 10 [col] Pride and Prejudice [col] 2.5 [col] 2 [col] 75.00% [/table][table][row color=#0f7a9e][col]Average[row color=#CCDDFF] OVERALL (estimate) [col]83.87%[row color=#ffCC66] New Release [col] 97.62% [row color=#CCDDFF] Still in Theater [col] 80.44% [/table]

DAMN YOU holdovers!!

88.71%.

Going low on the holdovers really paid off this time.

[table][row color=#0f7a9e]Rank[col]Film[col]Predicted[col]Estimate[col]Est. Accuracy[row color=#ffCC66] 1 [col] Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire [col] 102.6 [col] 95 [col] 92.00% [row color=#ffCC66] 2 [col] Walk the Line [col] 23.5 [col] 23 [col] 97.83% [row color=#CCDDFF] 3 [col] Chicken Little [col] 14.4 [col] 13.2 [col] 90.91% [row color=#CCDDFF] 4 [col] Derailed [col] 7.5 [col] 6.7 [col] 88.06% [row color=#CCDDFF] 5 [col] Zathura [col] 5.3 [col] 5.1 [col] 96.08% [row color=#CCDDFF] 6 [col] Jarhead [col] 5.9 [col] 4.8 [col] 77.08% [row color=#CCDDFF] 7 [col] Get Rich or Die Tryin' [col] 4.3 [col] 4.3 [col] 100.00% [row color=#CCDDFF] 8 [col] Saw II [col] 4.7 [col] 4 [col] 82.50% [row color=#CCDDFF] 9 [col] The Legend of Zorro [col] 3.1 [col] 2.4 [col] 70.83% [row color=#CCDDFF] 10 [col] Dreamer: Inspired by a True Story [col] 2.2 [col] 2 [col] 90.00% [/table][table][row color=#0f7a9e][col]Average[row color=#CCDDFF] OVERALL (estimate) [col]88.53%[row color=#ffCC66] New Release [col] 94.91% [row color=#CCDDFF] Still in Theater [col] 86.93% [/table]

Arr...

If I didn't have such a shotty memory, and I was actually in the derby this week, I would've been one of the top contenders.

92.45% for Jeff, and 91.45% for Samweis. Congrats, guys!

[table][row color=#0f7a9e]Rank[col]Film[col]Predicted[col]Estimate[col]Est. Accuracy[row color=#ffCC66] 1 [col] Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire [col] 100 [col] 95 [col] 94.74% [row color=#ffCC66] 2 [col] Walk the Line [col] 20 [col] 23 [col] 86.96% [row color=#CCDDFF] 3 [col] Chicken Little [col] 14.2 [col] 13.2 [col] 92.42% [row color=#CCDDFF] 4 [col] Derailed [col] 6.4 [col] 6.7 [col] 95.52% [row color=#CCDDFF] 5 [col] Zathura [col] 5.7 [col] 5.1 [col] 88.24% [row color=#CCDDFF] 6 [col] Jarhead [col] 5.3 [col] 4.8 [col] 89.58% [row color=#CCDDFF] 7 [col] Get Rich or Die Tryin' [col] 4.1 [col] 4.3 [col] 95.35% [row color=#CCDDFF] 8 [col] Saw II [col] 3.6 [col] 4 [col] 90.00% [row color=#CCDDFF] 9 [col] The Legend of Zorro [col] 2.6 [col] 2.4 [col] 91.67% [row color=#CCDDFF] 10 [col] Pride and Prejudice [col] 2 [col] 2 [col] 100.00% [/table][table][row color=#0f7a9e][col]Average[row color=#CCDDFF] OVERALL (estimate) [col]92.45%[row color=#ffCC66] New Release [col] 90.85% [row color=#CCDDFF] Still in Theater [col] 92.85% [/table]



Thanks, xiayun!

[table][row color=#0f7a9e]Rank[col]Film[col]Predicted[col]Estimate[col]Est. Accuracy[row color=#ffCC66] 1 [col] Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire [col] 97 [col] 95 [col] 97.89% [row color=#ffCC66] 2 [col] Walk the Line [col] 20.9 [col] 23 [col] 90.87% [row color=#CCDDFF] 3 [col] Chicken Little [col] 14.3 [col] 13.2 [col] 91.67% [row color=#CCDDFF] 4 [col] Derailed [col] 7.3 [col] 6.7 [col] 91.04% [row color=#CCDDFF] 5 [col] Zathura [col] 6.1 [col] 5.1 [col] 80.39% [row color=#CCDDFF] 6 [col] Jarhead [col] 5.5 [col] 4.8 [col] 85.42% [row color=#CCDDFF] 7 [col] Get Rich or Die Tryin' [col] 4.5 [col] 4.3 [col] 95.35% [row color=#CCDDFF] 8 [col] Saw II [col] 4.6 [col] 4 [col] 85.00% [row color=#CCDDFF] 9 [col] The Legend of Zorro [col] 3.2 [col] 2.4 [col] 66.67% [row color=#CCDDFF] 10 [col] Dreamer: Inspired by a True Story [col] 2.4 [col] 2 [col] 80.00% [/table][table][row color=#0f7a9e][col]Average[row color=#CCDDFF] OVERALL (estimate) [col]86.43%[row color=#ffCC66] New Release [col] 94.38% [row color=#CCDDFF] Still in Theater [col] 84.44% [/table]


Trust me, it's an improvement and I'll take it...

Damn you Zorro!

With holdovers dropping big, the score should favor us KJers over random derby players.

87.54 at least this is way better then the last week.

[table][row color=#0f7a9e]Rank[col]Film[col]Predicted[col]Estimate[col]Est. Accuracy[row color=#ffCC66] 1 [col] Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire [col] 97.6 [col] 95 [col] 97.26% [row color=#ffCC66] 2 [col] Walk the Line [col] 23.5 [col] 23 [col] 97.83% [row color=#CCDDFF] 3 [col] Chicken Little [col] 14.1 [col] 13.2 [col] 93.18% [row color=#CCDDFF] 4 [col] Derailed [col] 6.7 [col] 6.7 [col] 100.00% [row color=#CCDDFF] 5 [col] Zathura [col] 6.2 [col] 5.1 [col] 78.43% [row color=#CCDDFF] 6 [col] Jarhead [col] 5.3 [col] 4.8 [col] 89.58% [row color=#CCDDFF] 7 [col] Get Rich or Die Tryin' [col] 4.9 [col] 4.3 [col] 86.05% [row color=#CCDDFF] 8 [col] Saw II [col] 4.8 [col] 4 [col] 80.00% [row color=#CCDDFF] 9 [col] The Legend of Zorro [col] 3 [col] 2.4 [col] 75.00% [row color=#CCDDFF] 10 [col] Dreamer: Inspired by a True Story [col] 2.3 [col] 2 [col] 85.00% [/table][table][row color=#0f7a9e][col]Average[row color=#CCDDFF] OVERALL (estimate) [col]88.23%[row color=#ffCC66] New Release [col] 97.54% [row color=#CCDDFF] Still in Theater [col] 85.91% [/table]

Hopefully that will be enough for a place inside the top 50.