For the record, Walk the Line is currently at 80%.

http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/walk_the_line/

Reviews counted: 35
Fresh: 28 Rotten: 7
Average Rating: 7.3/10

80%

I have time for one little jab before I go.

The only question that remains is if Walk the Line will already be passed it after it's opening weekend, and we all know it will.

[table][col]Get Rich or Die Tryin'[col]Par.[col]$534,493 [col]-17%[col]-85%[col]1,652[col]$324 [col]$19,642,722 [/table]

Is it only a matter of time, Mav till you say that I predicted GRDT to make more than Walk the Line as well?

Looks like Walk the Line will end up with a little worse review than Ray. What's more telling is that at metacritic, it only has a score of 65 with 19 reviews counted, and here are some comparison between it and Ray, thanks of OW forum:

WTL Metacritic Reviews
3 80-90
9 70-80
3 60-70
4 less than 60

Ray Reviews
4 100s
3 90-100
10 80-90
7 70-80
10 60-70
6 less than 60

Walk the Line hasn't received a single score above 90 yet, and that's worrisome. Also, as ~du pointed out, "7 reviews for Walk the Line are by publications that liked Ray more (Ebert, EW, Chicago Tribune, Variety, Washington Post, The New Yorker, and NY Times). 4 publications liked it more (Austin Chronicle, ReelViews, LA Weekly, and Hollywood Reporter). And 7 give it the same score (Travers, Christian Sciene Monitor, L.A. Times, New York Magazine, The Onion, Village Voice, and Dallas Observer) And one reviewer didn't review Ray (Slate)."

The strong showing on Wednesday for the Cash special, and the strong CMA's, give me great confidence that it will do well this weekend. But of course superb reviews would help, but I think the fanbase will come regardless, because they have been responding well to the film.

Joaquin and Reese are on the cover of EW's November 25 issue. Just thought I'd post, because they look really great.

Joaquin looks angry

They look great.

Hmm, that probably means they won't be on the cover of EW's Oscar issue.

Reviews won't affect its opening. Nor will they affect its Best Picture nomination, because I believe they are strong enough to secure one. However, the lack of super-outstanding reviews could limit the total number of nominations it gets as well as citations from critic groups, and thus will make a difference in its potential of both winning BP and crossing $100M.

I bet EW's oscar cover is Depp.

It's got a 90 from Wall Street Journal now. Not above 90, but it's something. I wish Metacritic would average the score properly. WTL should by on 71 now. Two behind what Ray ended up with.

Fair enough. In terms of legs I think this comparision has limited usefulness.



Call the audience what you like, but it can produce a nice opening weekend.



Few



I actually think Jarhead will end up with much more of a young female audience on opening weekend then Walk the Line. Jarhead skewed male, but unlike Doom it also appealed enough to females for them to make up 43% of the audience. Sure WTL might have a higher percentage, as almost any non-action film will, but in terms of sheer numbers I expect WTL to skew strongly towards seniors.



Yeah, exactly. Except you should look at 2 Fast 2 Furious and Seabiscuit. Each skewed strongly to a specific audience, and each did well with it. However on opening weekend the results were very different; each film ended up in the same range, but they had different way of getting there. Jarhead was able to open like it did largely because its audience was the type to show up on opening weekend. WTL might end up with a similar total, but take a different path (BTW, I do expect WTL to make more overall).



I see it the other way around. The burden of proof is on the side making the claim. People will never spend their money and time on a movie simply by default. So I ask, what's the evidence that the young audience will come see the movie.



Yes, a movie can succeed without every demographic. However, it's no coincidence that nearly every major blockbuster tends to appeal to an extremely wide audience. Except for a few family films, you really only have The Matrix Reloaded among the ones over 200m in recent years. A film without the families and without a large audience under 30 faces a greater challenge then others. Not to mention that it lacks the fans of comedy and action that, like it or not, are among the top consumers of Hollywood product.



Only 4 of those opened with 30m, and none over 40m. They also tend to have big stars (which seems to matter more to older audiences then younger ones). However, most importantly none of them were dramas, or at least they were not advertised as such. M&C was marketed as an adventure film in the TV spots (with music from POTC). Action/adventures, romantic comedies, and thrillers etc, all sell better then dramas even among older audiences. Is it any coincidence that most of the top films for the audience in recent years have been action movies? Gladiator, The Last Samurai, Collateral, National Treasure, Bourne Identity and Supremacy, The Sum of all Fears, etc. Otherwise, you have some like Chicago and ABM that earned their money due to huge awards buzz, and I guess Seabiscuit and F 9/11.

This goes into the point I was making earlier: drama is a difficult sell.



Action/thriller.



Based on what do you say this? Did Mystic River open with huge numbers? Insert about any other critically praised drama or indie from recent years. Good marketing is much more important, and polls prove this as far more moviegoers base their decisions on ads then critics.

In any case the audience reaction to Jarhead seems to be mixed, but certainly not poor. The drop shouldn’t be too surprising with the young male action seeking audience it had.



I say what I said above. The audience needs a reason to see it, not a reason not to avoid seeing it.



I’d give others like Fun with Dick and Jane a much better shot. In fact, I don’t see how it can get far past 100m unless it is not released on DVD in Feb, and it does extremely well at the Oscars (winning best pic).

With the 79%-ish rating, around Ray, I think the legs will be cut short a bit here. I think it'll need 24-25 mil to have a shot at 100 total.

New Prediction:

28m / 154m

this is with a best pic nom, but not hte win.

I strongly disagree with this. The audiences for Jarhead and Walk the Line are not vastly different, and I think they share the same core of adult "drama" fans.


The claim was made in this thread that Walk the Line has no teenage appeal, so in this case, the case hasn't been made.


Sure they do. In fact, teenagers are the demographic that is marketed to most specifically because they do tend to see more films than the average 30 year old AND they tend to be more receptive to marketing.


DP07, if we are going to turn this around and ask the people who asked the original question, then ask your own end, because it hasn't provided the reason.

As it is, this is not an effective arguing technique.


And so does Walk the Line. It definately does not appeal strictly to the Mystic River deep heavy drama audience. It's marketing is very middle ground.


As I said above, I think 26 million would be a fantastic opening, I'm not expecting Walk the Line to break records and in no way am I supporting a 40 million opening.


I would say that Walk the Line has some pretty big stars. I mean we argue routinely that Recee is capable of selling a movie... They aren't Russell Crowe or Tom Cruise.


And Walk the Line is being marketed as a light musical.


Mystic River opened in 13 theaters... Few "Oscar dramas" open this wide and with this much advertising. Even Ray didn't hit it has hard as 20th Century Fox is with Walk the Line.


Which I would argue this film has HAD.


The problem is we supply you with reasons, this entire topic is filled with reasons... It has music, it has popular younger actors who sell motion pictures, it has good word coming out, it has great advertising, it looks middle-of the road and not too challenging, and you overlook all of those issues.


It does sound dumb.


No, that's just short sightedness on your part. The runner-up Best Picture candidates end up doing surprisingly well... and four of them last year ended northward of $70 million, and that was considered a bad year for Oscar Box Office.

Walk the Line is not an art house film, it is a populist Oscar contender, many of those films excel. Whether or not Walk the Line makes 15 million or 30 million this weekend, I feel completely confident in the chances of films like this to excel at the box office.

My prediction, my confidence completely relies on this being a contendor, and being that the reviews stay about the same.

I don't know what else to say, 30 million isn't really a lot of money at this time of year, and I'm not even expecting it to do exactly that much.

Final prediction:

Opening: 23.5 mil
Total: 81.9 mil

My final one:

Opening weekend - $18.4 million

Totzal gross - $74.5 million

After all of that... this entire topic... your opening day prediction and mine are 2.5 million apart.

Fantastic.

Jarhead relied heavily on the teens and especially young males. I'd say it had more in the teens and young males than in the adults WTL skews like Maverikk. The war thing, Jesus Walks playing the spots, Jake G. bringing in some females. It ended up being a lot younger-based than WTL is.

This is what I don't get:
"I think it'll need 24-25 mil to have a shot at 100 total."

I suppose I should have said 'at least' or 'even have' in that sentence, my mistake. What I meant is that if it opens to 21 mil, its pretty much dead. It needs like 24 mil or higher to have any chance, even though in my personal opinion displayed by the prediction with 24 mil it still won't.

But you predicted $35 million for the opening.

But even if it opens to 25m you dont think it has a good chance? Just "a" chance?

Where? I've been saying $26ish for a week or so now. I did make an "example" of $35 million.

Oh way back on page 18ish in early Nov. Yeah, the theater counts tempered it a bit.

I'm now in the 26-27 million range, and I think it will do 95ish.

I guess you could call that my "final" prediction.

Well yeah, it has a good chance. Thats what it needs. Thats what I'm saying. I'm say it almost needs to be 24 mil+, which IMPO wouldn't be enough anyways. But it would give it a shot. With 21 mil though, it'd be tough. Its have a chance, as all movies do, but not that big.