but didn't Winona have a better rep among the acting community back then - she was young and innocent

and how does that compare to Keira - doing Pirates, Domino, Bend it like Beck........

- so will any of KK other movies have any effect?

- and the same question on Charlize Theron who has Aeon Flux opening December 2?

- in general, I am asking, do other movies have a plus / none / negative effect on other movie roles.

I would say that Keira Knightly is generally considered to be a decent actress. Except for Pride she's never really been attacked nor overly praised. So all her buzz is neutral.

and how about Charlize Theron > who has Aeon Flux opening December 2, will that help, hurt or no effect on her getting a North Country nomination?

If Aeon Flux is CATWOMAN bad, it'll probably hurt. And I'm not envisioning any scenario in which it helps her. I'll assume 'no effect' for now, although two straight BO belly-flops won't look good to the Academy.

Oh wow, having seen it, Keira Knightley has a decent chance at a nomination for Pride and Prejudice!

Slate's David Edelstein seems to be taken with Witherspoon's performance.

At this point, I think Knightly will steal the last nomination from Theron. North Country hardly scored high with critics, and having an abomination like Aeon Flux is going to severely tarnish her record. Really. Badly. She's just earned an Oscar, so I doubt she'll be getting another for NC.

Meh, is there anyone else ought there aside from Knightly and Theron to fill that spot? I'm not sure either performance is strong enough for a nod...

I don't think Keira will take the spot from Theron. She'll take it from someone else if she does. Can't wait to see this now!

I'm bipolar I know lol but I think most of us jumped to quickly on the Kiera bandwagon. Sh'es too young, she hasn't proven herself and the only thing that might overcome all her weaknesses if the fact that it's a weak year for the category. Which isn't really much.

It could happen but I think she'll end up in an Evan Rachel Wood/Scarlet Johansson type of situation.

It's all Keisha Castle-Hughes' fault.

Who else would one nominated besides Keira? She's getting more print than Dench. She's getting more praise than Theron. Paltrow's been forgotten about.

I've been dead serious about Huffman. Sure, the TransAmerica reviews are still iffy (78% fresh), but ALL praise her acting job. Compared to the mild praise for Keira, I would say Huffman has a damn good chance at scoring a nom...... for now....

I agree, she will be right on the fence until the end unless one or two major contenders don't deliver!

Yeah, but DEnch doesn't need as much press as Keia. She's...Judi Dench. Though I don't consider her one of the frontrunners at this point cause the film itself is still getting iffy reviews.

Theron...like I said it's a weak year and if she ends up nominated that's probably the biggest reason why it'll happen (regardless of how good the performance is I don't see it being nominated any other year). But reviews aren't always everything, so wouldn't be surprised to see Theron nominated over her?

Paltrows been forgotten? By who? A lot of people say that about a lot of films/people only to be proven wrong by academy memebers.

But my frontrunners remain:

Reese Witherspoon
Joan Allen
Zhang Ziyi
Felicity Huffman

so there's at the very least one wide open spot. like i said, it could still happen, but she'll definitely be right on the fence. Unless maybe something happens to help her out (pre cursor awards? critic awards) The best thing that could happen for her is the National Board of Review breakthrough female performance award.

I'm pretty sure the following women will be nominated:

Reese Witherspoon
Judi Dench
Zhang Ziyi

The other three spots are where it gets a lot more difficult. A lot will depend on critics' awards. Can you imagine what NBR, LA, or NY critics' awards would do for Knightley, Theron, Allen, Paltrow, or Huffman? It would turn them into legitimate contenders. Right now, I have serious doubts about each one, but I think the other two slots will be one of these five.

Theron just seems so.....familiar. I haven't seen North Country, but the subject is so familiar, the box-office has been weak, and the reviews haven't been good. Seems to be on shaky ground to me.

Knightley also seems to be on familiar ground, but she just seems fresher than Theron. Maybe she hasn't had much acclaim but Oscar loves a breakthrough performance, esp. from a pretty young actress. Domino won't hurt her anymore than Aeon Flux will hurt Theron.

So I'd give Knightley the edge over Theron at this point.

The 5th slot? Tough race between Huffman and Allen. It really does depend on critics awards for this one, I think.

After seeing Proof, I'm really hoping to see Paltrow in there

And I actually think that Sarah Jessica Parker was kind of.. worthy of a nom...? But that won't happen, I'm almost sure of it... a GG nomination? Definitely. An Oscar nom is usually for other kind of performances.. (even though she has a couple of those moments, it's not enough, not even this year...)

1. Reese Witherspoon Walk the Line
2. Zhang Ziyi Memoirs of a Geisha
3. Joan Allen The Upside of Anger
4. Judi Dench Mrs. Henderson Presents
5. Felicity Huffman Transamerica

Aside from Reese and Zhang Ziyi, I have a really hard time filling out this group. Any of the other three could easily be replaced with Charlize Theron, Keira Knightley and even that girl from the New World (although I doubt the Academy would nominate two foreign up and comers in the same year)

Tom O'Neil on the race:

http://theenvelope.latimes.com/movies/e ... s-storynav

Am I the only one who found Reese's performance somewhat ordinary? Not bad, just nothing award worthy.

Blashemy! I can't say though, I haven't seen it. Can she stay the frontrunner for the next two months? Sometimes the early favorite can be a dangerous position.

In order of likelyhood of winning:

1. Reese Witherspoon
2. Keira Knightley (She should win as her performance comes off as far less of a caricture than Witherspoon's)
3. Charlize Theron (Maybe. The flopping of North Country isn't going to help its chances to garner noms)
4. Joan Allen (The Upside of Anger)
5. Judi Dench (She always seems to be up for a nomination so why not this year?)

I am pretty sure Knightley will get a nom. The category is weak. Ziyi and Witherspoon are both close to locks (Witherspoon is a lock already).

I can't see either Allen or Theron getting it, especially not Theron.

Did you see the movie after continuously saying negative things about it and wishing it would fail?

Yeah, I saw it last weekend. I try and see every wide release plus I wanted to see what the fuss was about. Before seeing it I didn't really "hate" it as much as it may have seemed. It just seemed so uninspired (another musician biopic after a bunch came out last year). The end result once actually seeing it was that I liked it enough (Grade B or B+) but was fare more impressed with Phoenix's performance than Witherspoon's. Knightley gives a better performance in P & P.

Reese's performance is being overestimated IMO. I would need to see some critic awards before jumping in line here.