Yeah, and that has so much to do with who's more popular...

Well, it supports all those facts I listed on page four concerning Cash's popularity, including the website forum that continues to quickly grow to 10,000 strong, something the late great Mr. Charles just doesn't have in his camp. This wide release, especially when it comes out the same day as Harry Potter, definitely sheds some light on the appeal here.

Wow. That's awesome. I wasn't expecting such a wide release. Fox is definitely pushing this one hard.

*the Ring voice*

7 DAYYYSSSSSSS....

Well, that's Universal, the studio that often goes with low theater counts.

Ok. Heres a little bit of input on my part.

Ray opened last year in 2006 theatres, to a $9989 PTA. Through its months head start as the only Oscar-film on the market, it expanded eventually to 2474 theatres and kept going through the holidays and up to March Oscar time. It also opened on Halloween, which dimmed it's opening prospects by a bit. Through it's 5 month run, it managed to accomplish a total of $75,331,600 which is a multiplier of approximetly 3.76

Walk the Line is opening in 2900 theatres estimated. I'll also admit to it having a bit more marketing. Unlike Ray, instead of over a month's head start, it has just 2 weeks before things get heavy. On Dec. 9, Memoirs of a Geisha, Brokeback Mountain, and Syriana, which are all Oscar-films will go wide, along with The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion the Witch and The Wardrobe. After that is King Kong and Family Stone on the 16th, and then comes the weekend of death the Dec. 23rd Christmas 9-wide releases weekend. It'll also have to put up with Munich. Because of the massive competition, and big opening theatre count, its theatres will drop a lot faster than steady Ray's.

I'd also like to input that Ray when it came out last year surprised a lot of people, they hadn't seen a movie like it for a while. This contributed to steadier grosses. WTL on the other hand, well we had Ray just last year.

All of this points to a bigger opener for WTL, but shorter legs. At best, and I stress at best, it'll equal Ray's legs. Now mathamatically, if we use the multiplier, we can work a probable projection out.

With 3.76(equal Ray) multiplier:

100 / 3.76 = 26.5

With Ray's multiplier, which I doubt, WTL will still need a 26.5 mil opening weekend.

But I doubt thats possible. With the bigger theatres, bigger theatre drops, bigger fanbase it seems, much more competition, and the fact that it isn't as original, I see it lowering.

A 3.5 multiplier:

100 / 3.5 = 28.6

With a 3.5 multiplier, it needs a whopping 28.6 opening weekend.

What I see it landing at:
A 3.35 multiplier:

100 / 3.35 = 29.9

With my guess, it would need a 29.9 opening weekend, which is far and away impossible. That would(and the 3.5 multiplier) mean it beats Jarhead. With not too much marketing, and no teen buzz whatsoever, it is highly unlikely. Its also opening against Harry Potter, which has its possible 100 mil+ opening that will demolish everything. With every teen in there anyways, and a wack of parents with their kids, its just not happening.

My current prediction as of now:
18-19 mil opening
64-65 mil total.

I'm going to ignore all the garbage parts of your argument...


If you open Walk the Line at 25 million and give it the SAME drops as Ray and assume it is dropping theaters on a weekly basis you still get $65+ million (not including weekdays) by January 1st. I say this meaning that theoretically Walk the Line would have to lose 600 theaters on its second weekend (which contracturally will not happen).

The biggest difference here is Walk the Line will NOT lose theaters on Thanksgiving weekend, when Ray lost 600 (and still managed a 12% drop). It should also have more than 274 theaters when it hits around Christmas (maybe still 1000 if its lucky).

The entire assumption here is this will run like Ray and not like say... A Beautiful Mind. Which is a big assumption.


Yet you, below give it a smaller opening.


In 2001... Harry Potter 1 opened against Monsters, Inc. which made $22 million in its third week (and was more direct competition)

In 2002, 8 Mile made $19+ in it's 2nd week.


I see absolutely no reason, NO reason whatsoever that, given the lack of action elsewhere in the Box Office that Walk the Line couldn't pull Jarhead numbers with MORE theaters.

$30 million + $30 million - 13% (Ray's drop) = $56.1 million on the second weekend, NOT INCLUDING weekdays... so already over $60 million.

$30 million isn't such a huge number anymore.

Well, I agreed with you until you mentioned ABM. January is very different from November for Oscar films. In the new year the buzz in the media for the Oscars is much higher and therefore legs are better. Still, I agree in that I don't see how WTL can possibly get a multiplier of 3.5 or lower.



Sigh, you act as if 30m is suddenly nothing because of Jarhead. Jarhead deserves credit; there were some good reasons it was successful. We now have the proof that it's audience was strongly young and male (thus the success). WTL will simply not have the same young audience, and older audiences certainly don't frontload on opening weekend, so it would take a whole lot to open at 30m.

Walk the Line


Opening Day: 8.46m
2nd Day: 11.16m +32%
Opening Wknd: 26.54m - Fri: 8.46m / Sat: 11.16m +32% / Sun: 6.92m -38%
4-Day: 28.62m - Mon: 2.08m -70%
5-Day: 31.42m - Tue: 2.80m +35%
6-Day: 34.64m - Wed: 3.22m +15%
Opening Wk: 39.79m - Thur: 5.15m +60%
2nd Wknd: 22.64m -15.5% - Fri: 9.02m +75% / Sat: 9.20m +2% / Sun: 4.42m -52%
11-Day: 63.58m - Mon: 1.15m -74%
12-Day: 64.82m - Tue: 1.24m +8%
13-Day: 66.00m - Wed: 1.18m -8%
2nd Wk: 67.18m - Thur: 1.18m NC
3rd Wknd: 11.78m -48% - Fri: 3.08m +160% / Sat: 5.85m +90% / Sun: 2.85m -51%
Wk-1: 39.79m - Wknd: 26.54m | Total: 39.79m
Wk-2: 27.39m - Wknd: 22.64m | Total: 67.18m
Wk-3: 15.35m - Wknd: 11.78m | Total: 82.53m
Wk-4: 10.72m - Wknd: 8.00m | Total: 93.25m
Wk-5: 10.23m - Wknd: 6.04m | Total: 103.48m
Wk-6: 12.53m - Wknd: 4.40m - 4-Day-Wknd: 7.21m | Total: 116.01m
Wk-7: 10.06m - Wknd: 6.18m - 4-Day-Wknd: 8.22m | Total: 126.07m
Wk-8: 6.40m - Wknd: 4.84m | Total: 132.47m
Wk-9: 5.32m - Wknd: 3.70m - 4-Day-Wknd: 4.40m | Total: 137.59m
Wk-10: 5.08m - Wknd: 3.14m | Total: 142.67m
Wk-11: 8.60m - Wknd: 6.42m | Total: 151.27m
Wk-12: 9.04m - Wknd: 6.78m | Total: 160.31m
Wk-13: 9.11m - Wknd: 5.64m | Total: 169.42m
Wk-14: 7.23m - Wknd: 5.08m - 4-Day-Wknd: 6.03m | Total: 176.65m
Wk-15: 6.76m - Wknd: 5.04m | Total: 183.41m
Wk-16: 7.40m - Wknd: 5.18m | Total: 190.81m
Wk-17: 8.30m - Wknd: 6.45m | Total: 199.11m
Wk-18: 5.50m - Wknd: 4.44m | Total: 204.61m
Wk-19: 3.70m - Wknd: 2.88m | Total: 208.31m
Wk-20: 2.52m - Wknd: 1.86m | Total: 210.83m
Wk-21: 1.84m - Wknd: 1.31m | Total: 212.62m
Wk-22: 1.08m - Wknd: .84m | Total: 213.75m
Wk-23: .64m - Wknd: .51m | Total: 214.39m
Wk-24: .34m - Wknd: .26m | Total: 215.34m
Wk-25: .21m - Wknd: .15m | Total: 215.59m
Wk-26: 40m - Wknd: .30m - 4-Day-Wknd: .38m | Total: 150.36m
Wk-27: .25m - Wknd: .21m | Total: 150.63m
Money Made After Wk-27: ~.5m
Estimated Wks in theaters: 35
Days to 50m: 9-Days - 58.01m
Days to 100m: 32-Days - 100.33m
Days to 150m: 75-Days - 150.13m
Days to 200m: 120-Days - 200.25m
Domestic Total: 216m
International Total: 84m
World Wide Total: 300m

Multiplyer: ~8.14

For best picture:

Pre Nom_11/18/05-1/25/06: 141.41m

Post Nom_1/26/06-3/5/06: 49.39m

Post Awards_3/5/06+: ~27m

Cash's daughter not entirely happy with the movie:

http://www.imdb.com/news/wenn/2005-11-11/#3

Shack, I'll give you another crack at it so you can fix the gaping holes in this analysis. This is just bad.

Well, fill in A Beautiful Mind with any other film actually. There is no law says that Walk the Line has to perform exactly like Ray. Ray was released at a different time and it's model does NOT apply to Walk the Line.


The same, cheast beating young male studs? Probably not. But maybe some of them? More female? Obviously. You gain an audience, you lose one. I have seen no evidence anywhere that the "young audience" will not come see this movie. Regardless the "If it's not targeted at teenagers directly it can't be a success argument" is absolutely a bullshit one.


Master & Commander?
Ocean's Twelve?
National Treasure?
Oceans Eleven?
Vanilla Sky?
What Women Want?

All are adult targeted movies that opened within the 2 week period of Walk the Line. Most of those opened 30+. Which Walk the Line doesn't necessarily NEED (26ish million would be fine).

Even The Jackal, a hard rated R thriller opened to 15 million (in 1997!) in 800 fewer theaters than Walk the Line.


Because Jarhead could have done SO much more if it had been better recieved. I fully expect reviews play a signifcant part in the opening and the legs of movies like this... it is part of the basic appeal.

I see absolutely no reason to assume that a younger audience isn't interested in a Joaquin Pheonix or Reece Witherspoon film. In fact, every audience that I go see this trailer with (that has teenagers in it) confirms that there IS interest. I see no reason that, if Ladder 49 can open to 22+ on October 1st that a more acclaimed Pheonix film can't open to more on one of the strongest weekends of the year.

It doesn't mean it HAS to, but I honestly if you drop pour incredibly crappy numbers into a drop pattern that's the same as Rays, even if you don't count Ray's first three weeks the lowest the film can make is like $65 million... That could definately be it's low end (I think it's low end is $75) but there is a LOT of potential for this to break out.

No, it won't run like A Beautiful Mind, but it is ENTIRELY possible that if any fall non-Potter/Kong/Narnia film breaks out it will be this one.

Just a reminder.

I just saw an AMAZING TV spot for this. Time and The Chicago Sun Times (Roger Ebert) gave it very high marks, and Oscar was mentioned very prominently in the spot.

Some of the other raves in TV spots include People Magazine and Rolling Stone.

Okie. I join.

You already joined once already.

There is still time to join. The club will be closing soon, so hurry up and sign up for whatever group you want to belong to.

The 100 Million Dollar Club:

1. Maverikk
2. dolcevita
3. Libs
4. Killuminati510
5. BJ
6. MovieDude
7. newfoundglorysp
8. the man from fran...ce
9. insein-darko
10. rusty
11. Maximus
12. Flava'd?
13. Moolah
14. jb007
15. nghtvsn
16. Squee
17. thompsoncory
18. Mr. X
19. andaroo
20. Mr. Sparkle

The Under 100 Million Dollar Club:

1. Zingaling
2. Dr. Lecter
3. Shack
4. matatonio
5. revolutions
6. bABA
7. Animosity Reigns
8. Lucky
9. DP07
10. The Dark Shape
11. Positive Jon

You took my "I might join" posts as a "I will join, because this movie will make 100 million", didn't you? Didn't you?!?

Yeah, I pretty much agreed to it already. Everytime I see a Walk the Line TV spot, I instantly have to stop everything and watch. This is one movie I would really enjoy seeing on opening day, and would be one of the very few movies I've seen opening day. Let's hope I follow through with that, and see it Friday.

The 100 Million Dollar Club:

1. Maverikk
2. dolcevita
3. Libs
4. Killuminati510
5. BJ
6. MovieDude
7. newfoundglorysp
8. the man from fran...ce
9. insein-darko
10. rusty
11. Maximus
12. Flava'd?
13. Moolah
14. jb007
15. nghtvsn
16. Squee
17. thompsoncory
18. Mr. X
19. andaroo
20. Mr. Sparkle

Dr. Lecter ----------------------> <----------------------------- Maverikk

I guess my hopes of Walk the Line opening to $30 million are just plain optimism and not realism, and the film will likely end up with $25 million by Sunday, which means we'll probably have to wait a few weeks before we see $100 million. But... I feel it. I really do.

After an opening like that, if anybody continues to act as if they still are in the know about this and we aren't, I say we tar and feather them. This is locked for the awards race, it has wide appeal... Ah, it's nothing that I haven't been saying over and over, and the very notion of where this is tracking at backs up every word that the supporters in this thread have been trying to tell the others.

I think it goes without saying that one group is feeling pretty good right now while the other group is nervous, but they are very welcome to come over to the light.

I just noticed the soundtrack is being released on Tuesday. Will you be getting it, Mav? I probably won't be able to get it on the first day, but hopefully I'll get it somewhere around when I see the film (which again, I hope is on opening day).

I may pick it up. I'm waiting to hear the songs in the film before deciding.

Yeah, that's what I was thinking, too.

As we gear up for the exciting opening weekend, I'd recommend reading through this thread to see how wrong the nay sayers already have been to this point, with one of them presenting some absolutely terrible arguments. It's got great entertainment value if you want to kill a bit of time on your Sunday.

Needless to say, I'm licking my chops.