hmmm... Here we go. I apologize for the spelling.

Best Picture
Brokeback Mountain (Focus Features)
Good Night, and Good Luck. (Warner Indpt.)
Memoirs of a Geisha (Sony)
Munich (Universal/Dreamworks)
Walk the Line (20th Century Fox)

Best Foreign Language Film
No Clue!

Best Animated Feature
Madagascar
Tim Burton's Corpse Bride
Wallace & Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit

Best Documentary Feature
Grizzly Man
Mad Hot Ballroom
March of the Penguins
Murderball
Why We Fight

Best Original Screenplay
Broken Flowers
Crash
Good Night, and Good Luck.
The New World
Match Point

Best Adapted Screenplay
Capote
King Kong
Memoirs of a Geisha
Munich
Syriana

Best Director
George Clooney - Good Night, and Good Luck.
David Cronenberg - A History of Violence
James Mangold - Walk the Line
Rob Marshall - Memoirs of a Geisha
Stephen Spielberg - Munich

Best Actor in a Leading Role
Eric Bana - Munich
Phillip Seymor Hoffman - Capote
Heath Ledger - Brokeback Mountain
Joaquin Pheonix - Walk the Line
David Strathairn - Good Night, and Good Luck

Best Actress in a Leading Role
Judy Dench - Mrs. Henderson's Presents
Keira Knightly - Pride & Prejudice
Charlize Theron - North Country
Reese Witherspoon - Walk the Line
Zhang Ziyi - Memoris of a Geisha

Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Matthew Broderick - The Producers
Daniel Craig - Munich
Jake Gylenhall - Brokeback Mountain
Terrance Howard - Crash
William Hurt - A History of Violence

Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Sharon Alexander - Munich
Maria Bello - A History of Violence
Diane Keaton - The Family Stone
Catherine Keener - Capote
Gong Li - Memoirs of a Geisha

Best Art Direction
The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch, and the Wardrobe
Good Night, and Good Luck.
King Kong
Memoirs of a Geisha
The New World

Cinematography
Good Night, and Good Luck.
King Kong
Memoirs of a Geisha
Munich
The New World

Best Film Editing
Good Night, and Good Luck.
King Kong
Memoirs of a Geisha
Munich
Walk the Line

Best Score
Patrick Doyle - Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire
Danny Elfman - Tim Burton's Corpse Bride
James newton Howard - King Kong
Harry Gregson-Williams - The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch, and the Wardrobe
John Williams - Memoirs of a Geisha

Best Song!
"So Long, and Thanks for all the Fish" from Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy
"Love Heals" from Rent
"Magic Works" from Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire
"Tears to Shed" from Tim Burton's Corpse Bride
"There's Nothing Like a Show on Broadway" from The Producers

Best Make Up
The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch, and the Wardrobe
Good Night, and Good Luck.
Memoirs of a Geisha

Best Costume Design
The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch, and the Wardrobe
King Kong
Memoirs of a Geisha
The New World
Walk the Line

Best Animated Short
No Clue

Best Life Action Short
No Clue

Best Sound
Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire
King Kong
The Producers
Star Wars Episode III: Revenge of the Sith
Walk the Line

Best Sound Effects Editing
Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire
King Kong
Star Wars Episode III: Revenge of the Sith

Best Visual Effects
The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch, and the Wardrobe
King Kong
Star Wars Episode III: Revenge of the Sith



Notes:

- I think "So Long..." is original. That's what they say in the commentary of the DVD, if so it should get

a nomination.

- Score is really weak this year, with Williams and Elfman both with two scores that should be in

contention (Star Wars and Charlie missing). Patrick Doyle and the score for Potter 4 I *think* is

inelligble because of John William's themes... but putting it here, because most of the score does not rely

on those.

I almost conpletely agree with andaroo (except for Brokeback Mountain)

Shoot me.

Oh and the German Sophie Scholl is an almost certain nominee for Best Foreign, I'd say.

Do Rent's and Producers' songs count? Because if they're adapted from like the play, they wouldn't exactly be original work.

Those two songs are original, written for the films.

I'm not sure on the Rent song though, since the Rent fans seem not to like it much (read Amazon!) but I can't think of anything else unless Chronicles or Kong goes for an Oscar grab song with Annie Lennox.

Unless they wrote song/s specifically for the movie in order to get an Academy nomination.

Evita, Chicago, Phantom of the Opera all had an original song that got nominated.

John Williams actually has three contenders since he is doing the score for Munich also, right?

Look good. I have the exact lineup for BP. For BD (Director, not Documentary), I think Mangold is the most vulnerable director out of the 5 best picture nominees, considering the others are named directors. Clooney is also weaker than Ang Lee. If Brokeback Mountain gets BP nom, I can't see Ang Lee not getting in (I can see the other way around).

Agree on both leading acting categories.

GNAGL for makeup?

Good Night has tremendous make up. Shooting black & white is NOT easy.

Ang Lee has a Oscar, and I think Brokeback is the weakest of the five.

Here is the German Best Foreign Picture contender:

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0426578/

It's a really good movies and reviews have been splendid here and so far there are three fresh reviews at RT. Considering all that and the fact that Nazi movies usually get a bonus at the Oscars, this should be at least nominated.

Hmm, I thought Shooting black & white means a nod in Cinematography. I still don't see what it has to do with makeup. I'd put King Kong, Sin City, and a lot of other movies before it, but I'm not familiar with the technical aspect of the category to judge.

My thinking is Ang is greatly respected in the director branch, which does the nomination for Best Director. I mean, he won a DGA. If anything, he gets before the picture does.

This is a year with so many highly-regarded directors that I wouldn't be surprised to see only a 3/5 match between BP and BD.

To me, the cinematography is a separate issue than the makeup.


In black & white film, it is important to strike an effective balance with the make up, otherwise people's faces disappear and the film looks washed out.

This category also includes hair btw.


Maybe, but Sin City *probably* won't be going places for various reasons.


Maybe, but they aren't going to all vote for old school director's. Clooney has the critically acclaimed indie film, and he's going to get support for the actors (probably) and he's had a mighty good year all around. Mangold, who's film is one of the 3 that can win, is making a name for himself in the process, he's in, him and Marshall and Spielberg are safe.

Ang Lee is 2005's Peter Weir... he's "owed" every time a film comes around but he's always taking the backseat to someone who is theoretically owed the nomination more. That person is Marshall, who (thus far) has a stronger film.

So yeah, I think Lee is the weakest of the bunch and as you know Picture and Director never line up. I think a better question would be is Cronenberg really #6 on that list? I'm not entirely sure. I would say he's in the top 10 but I'm not seeing a lot of other director's whos stars are lining up. And he will probably get at least 2 actors nominated for his film... hmmm.

Now I could see Kong being nominated for Best Picture and Lee being nominated for Director... in this bizzarro world.

Don't forget that for the nomination process, only directors vote for directors so support for Clooney from the actors branch will not help much.

Hmm, interesting, though like I've said before I'm more confident about Ang Lee getting a nomination than Mountain itself. I agree with a lot of the predictions, though...

Very true.

Which is why I think Cronenberg has a shot at all. What I meant by that was Clooney's other prospects leading up to the awards seem brighter (like the Golden Globes). As long as his momentum keeps going. It's not hard for high profile actors to make the jump into Oscar nominees (Redford, Eastwood, Costner, etc.). As I said, Marshall is taking a stronger "he is owed one" position this year.

But this is no-guts-no-glory!

Another reason why Brokeback strikes me as weak is that of the five nominees (even if you were to throw A History..., or Kong, or Producers into the mix) is that outside of Ledger and *maybe* Gylenhall, Brokeback has an uphill battle for territory in any other category.

I think, of the top five Good Night and Good Luck, Munich, Memoirs will be the only three that get Screenplay nods (and Good Night and Munich could easily win these). Brokeback Mountain is a third choice contender against Munich or Memoirs for Adapted.

I think The New World might be a bit underestimated by us. I mean with all this Oscar-pumping, it seemes to get the least talk. If it gets make-up(which I think it will) and a possible nom for score, its looking at 4 or 5 or 6 noms without any of the big ones. The early word for the movie itself is good(I think?), so its got a shot. Supporting actress and Director are in reach for it. If it picks up those noms, it'll be looking a pretty good BP shot.

Yeah, it has been pretty quiet around The New World, but I think Malick is a good director and I believe he can deliver, so it might get quite a handful of noms.

Pretty good andaroo. You should have done some stuff for the main site about this. Almost dead on. Alot of them I really hope for as well.

Only thing I would second guess is if Enron: Smartest Guy in the Room, won't make it into the doc category. I think it will.

Sophie Scholl, Lecter is right, will be in the Foreign Language films, as will (I'm really shotting in the dark here) possibly Tropical Malady, Ushpizin, Paradise Now, Kung-Fu Hustle, Ong-Bak: The Thai Warrior is an alternate. Eh, was an incredibly silent year for imports. None of them really stand out. Alot of them like Holy Girl and Head-On were actually 2004 releases in their home country.

This is a monster year for docus, but somehow putting Enron in the line up just didn't... work.

Why We Fight has won a lot of awards and is getting a theatrical release during the season (Jan 20).

Murderball is obvious.

Penguins will win.

Ballroom has that quirky human-comedy-drama-slice of life thing about it.

Grizzly Man is another nature docu by a famous director.


Hustle was not submitted by Hong Kong. Tin Mine was submitted instead of Tropical Malady or Ong-Bak (which sucks anyway!) by Thailand. Isreal submitted What a Wonderful Place.

Paradise Now, is the only film of the bunch that can be nominated for Foreign Film.

Argentina - El Aura
Bagladesh - Shyamol Chhaya (The Green Shade)
Belgium - L'Enfant (The Child)
Bolivia - Di Buen dia a papa (Say Good Morning to Dad)
Bosnia Hersegovina - Sasvim licno (Totally Personal)
Brazil = 2 Filhos de Francisco (Two Sons of Francisco)
Bulgaria - Otkradnati Ochi (Stolen Eyes
Canada - C.R.A.Z.Y.
Chile - Play
China - Mo gik (The Promise)
Columbia - La Sombra del Caminante (The Wandering Shadows)
Costa Rica - Caribe
Croatia - Ta Divna Splitska Noc (A Wonderful Night in Split)
Cuba - Viva Cuba!
Czech Republic - Something Like Happiness
Denmark - Adams Apple
Estonia - Shop of Dreams
Fiji - The Land Has Eyes
Finland - Äideistä parhain (Mother of Mine)
France - Joyeux Noël
Georgia - Tbilisi-Tbilisi
German - Sophie Scholl - The Final Days
Hong Kong - Perhaps Love
Hungary - Sorstalansag (Fateless)
Iceland - Í takt vid tímann (In Tune with Time)
India - Paheli (Mystery)
Indonesia - Gie
Iran - Kheli Dour Kheli Nazdik (So Close, So Far)
Iraq - Requiem of Snow
Isreal - Eize Makom Nifla (What a Wonderful Place)
Italy - La Bestia Nel Cuore (The Beast in the Heart)
Japan - Chi to Hone (Blood & Bones)
Korea - Welcome to Dongmakgol
Luxembourg - Renart the Fox
Mexico - Al Otro Lado
Mongolia - The Cave of the Yellow Dog
Netherlands - Bluebird
Norway - Vinterkyss (Kissed by Winter)
Palestine - Paradise Now
Peru - Dias de Santiago
Poland - Bailiff
Portugal - Noite Escura (In the Darkness of Night)
Puerto Rico - Cayo
Romania - Moartea domnului Lazarescu (The Death of Mr. Lazarescu)
Russia - The Italian
Serbia & Montenegro - Midwinter Night's Dream
Signapore - Be With Me
Slovak Republic - Slunecni stat (City of the Sun)
Slovenia - The Ruins
South Africa - Tsotsi
Spain - Obaba
Sweden - Zozo
Switzerland - Tout un Hiver Sans Feu
Taiwan - the Wayward Cloud
Tajikistan - Sex & Philosophy
Thailand - The Tin Mine
Turkey - Gönül Yarasi (Lovelorn)
Vietnam - Buffalo Boy

The ones I feel comfortable with in the foreign film category are L'Enfant, which won Cannes, and Tsotsi, which won Toronto, but with as unpredictable as the category has shown in the past, the two were up there only because they won somthing.

Yeah I would agree.

For some reason I have heard a lot about Joyeux Noel too.

I stick my neck out and list my predictions as soon as I get the energy up for it. A little busy with some stuff, but it's actually related to this stuff, so I'll have enough ideas to predict in all the categories.

There is something horribly wrong with these predictions!



Spielberg's first name is spelt wrong .


Seriously though, those are solid predictions and I would love for those names to be read on nomination day. It would mean that the movies I'm really looking forward to, Munich, Memoirs, The New World, Chronicles, King Kong, delivered on their promises of exceptional quality. Memoirs seems to be the Aviator of this year, in that it will lead the nominations with around 11, has a great shot to nab a few in the technical categories (and perhaps supporting actress, just like Blanchett) and may not win best picture or director. If there is one curious nomination on your list it would be William Hurt for A History of Violence. The role is two small (he's no Judi Dench) and frankly over-the-top, though that is a personal opinion.

This is a good snapshot of how things look at the moment but of course it will all change.

Not only the New World but there are other movies like The White Countess and The Libertine which could surprise us.

I'm not sure about Knightly in Best Actress either. But it does seem that Pride and Prejudice is opening remarkably well this weekend.

Quick, someone tell me the last time a film was nominated in 9 categories without a Best Picture nomination.