List(in order):

1. Memoirs of a Geisha
2. Munich
3. Good Night, and Good Luck
4. Walk the Line
5. Cinderella Man

Close: King Kong, Brokeback Mountain, The New World

#1 and #2 are SO close though. They're pretty much tied, though I give the edge to Memoirs after seeing the trailer again recently. I'm sold on Good Night, and Good Luck. Walk the Line will get in though I don't see it winning at all. And yes, I believe that we'll be seeing Cinderella Man over what some are picking in Crash. King Kong, Brokeback, and The New World will all have shots at the top 5. I'm not feeling Brokeback as much as some people here, I don't know, I kind've get the vibe Jake G. will pull a trifecta in the near Oscar-miss category.

That's surprising to me, too. I can see it with Peter Jackson fans, and I can also see it with people who don't have a clue about the Oscars and precedent, but I can't see why should would think that, but I'll bet she changes and takes it off her list.

The academy will like it better than any other movie this year?

Good enough? lol

Sometimes on message boards people rely too much on internet buzz for movies. But no other movie seems to be getting the kind of buzz among people who actually vote like Mountain this year.

Brokeback Mountain is getting and will continue to get tons of love from critics, but they don't vote for Oscar. The key is if it can get love from the normally more conservative Academy voters, especially with the homosexual topic. I'm pretty it'll be enough for a BP nomination, but hard to see a win if either Munich or Memoirs delivers.

If the trailer is any indication I think it will become a classic.

But you know, classic in the Spider-man kind of way. Best picture? I highly doubt it. If it gets any major nomination I think best actress will be it.

Really, it they are going to go the fantasy route, The Chronicles of Narnia > [i]King Kong.

No.

Munich, Memoirs or... Walk the Line (which I think could still win), but yeah, it's between those three.

The problem is that the buzz for Mountain seems indistinguishable from all the other internet chatter. At least in my view. The critics chatter can be read 1,000 different ways.

Concerning Brokeback Mountian....

I think one of the key ways this will get nominated if it has unanimous praise from critics and some type of box office success, however you want to explain "success" for this kind of movie.

So far, all we have recieved is concrete praise and good word of mouth and that's what I'm going on. IF time gets closer and there actually is some mixed ideas flowing around and not just polarizing politics, then I would take it out of my top 5.

But there is one more thing working for it.... as we have said a billion times, a weak year with still no clear indication of how good the big ones will be (Munich, Memoirs, Walk the Line).

As far as winning... there is no way this will win over Munich even if it is slightly better.

I dunno. I just don't know.

As I said, I know someone who has seen it.

And what did they say?
You said before you know someone has seen it but you failed to elaborate...
Was it like HORRIBLE?

He didn't like it. He REALLY didn't like it. He's not conservative or anything, just a normal 30 something male. He didn't elaborate too much. From him, I didn't get the impression of the film's quality, more just what I think the average reaction to the film will be by ... well... "average" heterosexual males.

November 11 Update


Best Picture

1. Munich: The clear front-runner not only for a nom but for the win and, if any will happen, the sweep. No question about it. Since most of the predicted films haven't been released, this has the most going for it as evident from the week old trailer. All it has to be is decent, not even fantastic and it's a shoe-in. don't think anyone is debating it.

2. Walk the Line: It's coming out next week, so within a week's time we'll get a better sense of how critics are warming up to it and the anticipation nehind it. The film itself isn't getting the ravest reviews; that honor goes to the stars of the film who will no doubt take this movie wherver it's going to go. I could actually see this film getting bumped if all the serious contenders (Geisha, NEw World, Syriana, etc...) all happen to be amazing films but truth of the matter is, it's turning out to be a pretty dark and serious year and this movie will add alot of light and Hollywood new-age vitality to the Oscars. So, for now count it in.

3. Memoirs of a Geisha: We're getting much closer and still no abundance of raving reviews. Then again, there really hasn't been much bad buzz or news either, which in this time of the race, is good! It will be tech heavy and that could be enough to propel it to a Best Pic nom if the film isn't outstanding!

4. Brokeback Mountain: As time wears off, I'm getting more and more uncertain for this one. But the fact of the matter is, there really isn't anything that has been gaining substantial buzz or making a great amount of ground in the race to knowck down its overwhelming intial response. IT's the first December release and hopefully, we'll know alot by then. It could be a film where they award it in the acting. I could very easily see 3 acting noms (Lead+Supp. Actor +Supp.Actress). So, to play it safe, it's still here... but we'll ahve to play close attention to this one.

5. Good Night, and Good Luck: Still, nothing has emerged to replace any of these top 5 contenders and this one is still very much in the game. It's going to be the critical darling and if Syriana doesn't get a mighty push, it's almost a lock!

On the fence....

6. The New World: Like I said, we don't know enough to consider any fo the following real big contenders, but they are next in line if one of the top 5 should tumble. And The New World still seems to be the one movie nobody can really peg and that could be a good thing: it will gain momentum later on in the race!

7. Syriana: This one has been gaining alot of buzz and I'm getting anxious to see it. It's #1 threat remains to be Good Night, and Good Luck and that combined with an iffy Academy topic will most likely leave this one right outside the top 5 for most of the race.

8. Crash: If all else fails, Crash is a pretty strong contender to move in there. Although it's strongest chance (and most probable) are in Screenplay and maybe a token Supporting nom... it could get in here.

9. Pride and Prejudice: Well, this oen just came out of nowhere! The reviews are still building and an acting nom seems to be on the rise as well. It could sneak if, again, some of the big ones disappoint... but right now there's still too much stiff competition and diverse films to fill in the 5 slots that this might just be left out. Maybe it's too much too late... as in we were never expecting it, so we kept it out of the race and many will be reluctant to bring yet another shaky contender in the already questionable race!

10. King Kong: The token blockbuster that also could be a classic. We'll have to wait and see. It's unlikely, but it is a contender with 3 time award winning Peter Jackson, the WETA designs, and that 3 hour clock time.

If all else fails...
Match Point: Building up to be a tightly packed movie, but there just won't be room for it. Maybe a director nod is in store!
The Producers: Just because the musical genre had a comeback doesn't mean there will be a nominee each year...
Jarhead: Quickly fading but still on some respectable predictions, so don;t count it out yet.
Cinderella Man: This one os dead in the water; they've been there and awarded everybody!! (except poor Giamatti!)
Capote: Too small and overshadowed by its lead

and what about the past Oscar history, the famous and loved Broadway show for The Producers:

>>>>>>>>Just because the musical genre had a comeback doesn't mean there will be a nominee each year...

will the above give it any additional consideration towards the Oscar nominations.

I see you're slowly coming around.

It has an uphill battle, as both Good Night, and Good Luck and Munich will possibly suck votes away from it, but the same applies to those films being on the end that's getting votes sucked away.

I've been hearing the good buzz, and I hope it lives up to it.

Best Actor

1. Joaquin Pheonix: He will carry the movie and even if Witherspoon overshines his star, I dont' think anyone is going to go against this!

2. Heath Ledger: If Brokeback Mountain will get one nomination, it will be Best Actor. IT has been the strongest parts in the overwhelmingly positive reviews and buzz that has been out (which seems to have halted). But I don't think Actor will be its lone nod. I think it has great chances in Screenplay, Supp. Actor, and Picture and those will all just solidify this one!

3. Phillip Seymour Hoffman: In a year with alot of rising stars and already shining stars in the mix, this one will turn the category into a more grounded race. He is outstanding in this role, especially towards the end when you see all the layers start peeling off. I don't what so many people have against "imitation." In my view, it's even harder than acting for a fictional character... you have to mold your entire self into another person, something that you're not as contrained to do with a new character. Plus, it's never just an imitation... how good you are relates to how well you can get underneath these people's skin and truly capture that inner struggle or glow that the film want to display. And Hoffman does a fine job!

4. George Clooney: I'm pretty stubbord on this one until I see Syriana and say he wasn't as good as can be. A long time great actor who is now finally doing some amazing work and getting the respect he deserves for it. The only thing I see that could hurt him is himself: some might just want to give him the director nod. Then again, look at Clint Eastwood. Could Clooney be turning into a new Clint?

5. Eric Bana: This is still a very shaky contender because we haven't seen too much from him and it's a testament to how Speilberg can muster out a great performance from any willing actor. Time will tell, but in the meantime he can be knocked to the other side of the fence if other performances gain serious buzz.

On the Fence...

6. David Strathairn: Once a shoe-in by many predictors is now getting side-stepped. I think his performance is too subtle for alot of people to really pick up on and appreciate. They will be focusing more on the picture, director, and screenplay for Good Night and may overlook Strathairn. With Eric Bana as a question mark, I still don't see him making it into the top 5. I really think it might come down to him or Clooney. This year's Actor race is turning out to be one of the most appealing to the ages and mainstream audiences and Hoffman is enough to provide the race with a more serious non-glam tone. On the upside, the following actors ahve more factors going against them that Strathairn really is the strongest contender outside the top 5 by quite alot!

7. Nathan Lane: Purely just to liven up the mix. I would actually put him behind #8, 9, and 10, but those themselves have alot going against the, so we'll have to wait and see...

8. Ralph Fiennes: Plus-side---He had one of the year's earliest and best buzzed performances and another (although really uknown) movie towards the end of the year. The problem---the first one was too early in a year that's seemingly goign to be decided in December and his second one is going out too late with no enough buzz to get into that December mix. But, his raves aren't going to count for nothing... if not a nod, he's definitely building up his Oscar "due" resume.

9. Terrence Howard: I actually think he has alot going for a lead nod (for Hustle and Flow). He's starting to recieve ALOT of industry cred and his nod could be like the Huffman-Emmy-winning surprise for the Oscars. However, his almost as strong supporting performance in Crash might hurt his all-out lead chances. He also has a supporting role in Get Rich, so alot of voters might place him in supporting so he can acknowledged.

10. Cillian Murphy: The movie is going to be too small and I highly, highly doubt they are going to have two sexually confused characters nominated in the Lead Actor category. Plus, for a performance like this to be nominated it (like one other predictor exclaimed) would have to be something Monster-like and it doesn't seem to be building up that.

If all else fails....
Viggo Mortensen-- could still pull a surprise, but he has faded quite fast
Colin Farrell-- again, for all we know this could end up being a masterwork from Mallick and a career redemption role for Farrell...?
Jake Gylenhaal-- He has recieved raves for hsi work on Jarhead. I would actually place him in the top 10, but I think he has much stronger chance in the supporting category for Mountain.
Tommy Lee Jones-- Just don;t hear much about this... plus he may split his own ticket by doing an acting-directing duo for the same film!
Russel Crow-- I think they need to give him more time before they will start nominating him again. This year isn't that weak for Actors.

I'm running out of time, so I'll outline the Actress predix and add more meat later this weekend.

1. Reese Witherspoon--like anyone's going to say otherwise
2. Charlize Theron--still a weak race and she's still the runner-up to beat
3. Judi Dench--we'll need some variety and she's two-fold: comedy and old
4. Joan Allen--her and #5 are really on the fence, so I don't know
5. Felicity Huffman--the next two are starting to gain buzz so these last 2 slots could be a tight race
6. Ziyi Zhang--could the film be an all around sweep in nods dipping in the acting category too?
7. Keira Knightley--she just came out of nowhere with very strong reviews... she could could get and it will help her career alot
8. Gwyneth Paltrow--poor Gwyneth... it's ending up to be a tough 7 to beat!
9. Claire Danes--the rest from here on out is pointless, but o well, we'll fill in the empty slots
10. Toni Collette--still don't know if she's supporting or not

Supporting or Lead??
Toni Collette
Sacrlet Johanson
Juliette Binoche (Bee Season)

Still no abundance of raves? The official screenings have just started, and so far we know three critics/professional writers have seen it: Corliss, Tom O'Neil, and Kris Tapley, and all of them rave about the film and the performances. I can't believe people are still doubting the film.

Memoirs of a Geisha is this year's The Aviator. Mark my words. By that I mean that it is a kovie where it has been almost locked for a Best Picture nom and tons of others noms from the very moment the production has started. I would put Memoirs of a Geisha at #1 right now, then Munich and then Walk the Line. All the rest is pretty far behind the three, in my opinion.

Again, Raffi, just like Jarhead, how is Munich the clear front runner when not a frame of film has been seen yet?

Munich is a frontrunner just like The Aviator was a frontrunner before the Million Dollar Baby wave... so, unless there's some huge surprise ahead - like MDB (or the movie disappoints in a big way, like Jarhead), it'll remain the frontrunner for the rest of the season imo.. right now, I don't see anything taking that status away..

I doubt everything O'Neil and Tapley say to begin with. Not that Memoirs can't be good, I just have lurked on OW and GoldDerby long enough to realize what kind of people they are and that I don't trust them... at all.

It's like getting reviews from Ain't It Cool.

Bring on EW and Variety and Ebert... these are the critics that have power and visibility.

These are for nods.
And most of it is based on pure buzz seeing as how usually 2/3+ of everyone's predictions are films we haven't seen.

So, you're saying the clear front-runners are Crash, Good Night and Good Luck, and Pride and PRejudice? Cuz those are the best reviewed films of what we've seen!

Jarhead is a special case.
Almost nobody was anticipating what a different movie it was going to be than what was advertised and hyped!

I just came from seeing Jarhead, by the way, and I can't believe Sam Mendes made that. It feels so incredibly different from the previous two he's directed, but with closer attention, they're all character pieces.

After having seen it, I think I'll officially say I don't think it's going to get nominated for anything.
I loved it, thought. Very good... but what kinda bugs me is it could ahve been even better. I don't like how they docused on only 2 characters for most of the time. I love ensemble character pieces like these. But then again, this is based on true memoirs, so you can't really fuck with that.

Peter Sarsgaard is freakin amazing. I didn't think he had anything to give to the film till 2 scenes in the end.
Jamie Fox won't get a nod for this. Jake won't get a lead nom, though he is pretty damn good. Mendes nor the picture will get anything. For it to be nominated as a character piece like it is, I think it needed to be mroe of an epic character piece.