no don't my heart can't take that much laughing.

True.

But with BJ it is all good.

Don't worry BJ, its better than mine.

I actually think that Get Rich or Die Trying is going to open to 30 million this weekend. But that's a story for a different thread...

oh yes, you can comment on the predictions as well

I'll go with slightly better legs then before since movies were not that frontloaded this summer, but I mostly stick with my old prediction:

Opening Day: 56.5m
Sat: 54m
Sun: 43.5m
Weekend: 154m
Mon: 21.5m
Tuesday: 19.5m
Wednesday: 16m
Thursday: 14m
Week: 225m
2nd Friday: 21m (-62.8%)
2nd Weekend: 70m (-54.5%)
Total: 476m

There's no way this beats Episode III's opening day record. That had the fanbase of 25 years working for it, and there's a reason it opened as high as it did. Pirates is more family-based, and families don't always go on opening weekend. I'd say $100-110 million opening, and around the same total as the first one. But I suppose it could pull a Shrek 2 and go past $400 million, but it'd have to not disappoint, as it's (unfortunately) likely to do.

SW also had a large family audience and I don't think Pirates skews that much more in that direction. Also, I don't think the age of the fanbase matters much. ESB and ROTJ were massive when the fanbase was just a few years old.

10th highest ranked movie all-time at yahoo with 115,000+ ratings. That's more then enough IMO.

Yeah, but it's not like Pirates has inspired an entire pop culture phenomenon. It was just a really good movie that hit the right note with everyone at the right time. When Star Wars first came out (not that I would know...) it spawned all the merchandising that hadn't been heard of yet. That's how its sequels did so well. Pirates doesn't really have anything besides the movie itself, which is still good enough for a pretty large fanbase, but not to the size of Star Wars.

Talking fanbases, Star Wars is in a league of its own. Pirates is more in the Matrix group, with the first film being a great surprise and the sequels being very hyped. So I don't think that Pirates 2 will approach the opening day that Sith had, it'll be more like Matrix Reloaded (but higher, due to more people being able to see it).

Aren't both Pirates 2 and 3 being filmed back to back?

Just like The Matrix 2 and 3?
Back to the Future 2 and 3?

The 2nd will blow past away the originals opening, but have weak legs, and the third will barely be on the radar (at least compared to the other 2).

i feel the same way about the 2nd one.

What did Meet the Parents have besides the movie? More importantly, what did Shrek have? I don't think just having the movie or not matters that much. On one hand you have something like Serenity and on the other there is Shrek. I think what matters is pretty simple: did people like the movie? The answer here is overwelmingly yes.



What do you base this on? Also I might add that Shrek 2 outgrossed Sith.



Well, you know that if the Matrix Reloaded attracted as many women as men it would have earned 350m. Throw in more money from teens and families and it would be well over 400m. It's not just a difference, the fact that Pirates attracts a wider audience is all the difference in the world. The simple fact is that Reloaded was massive with the 17+ male demographic.

Pirates does not skew male like SW, and it appeals more to families which adds up to a huge advantage.

I must be the only one here who has faith that the writers will give us FAR better sequels than the Matrix ever got. We've got two of the best writers out there working on the PotC sequels; surely that counts for *something*.

PotC2 AND PotC3 will BOTH be big, mark my words.

Joy

DP07 wrote:

Opening Day: 56.5m
Sat: 54m
Sun: 43.5m
Weekend: 154m
Mon: 21.5m
Tuesday: 19.5m
Wednesday: 16m
Thursday: 14m
Week: 225m
2nd Friday: 21m (-62.8%)
2nd Weekend: 70m (-54.5%)
Total: 476m

BTW, new records:

Theater count: 4300
Opening day(and single day): 56.5m
Days to 100m: 2
Opening weekend: 154m
Highest Friday
Saturday
Sunday
Non-holiday Monday
Tuesday
Non-opening Wednesday
Non-holiday/non-opening-weekend Thursday
Days to 200m: 6
Opening Week: 225m
Days to 300m: 11
Days to 400m: 22 or 23

Basically every record it can break with the date (besides Titanic's).

They're too of the most inconsistent writers, that's for sure. Anybody remember The Road to El Dorado and Small Soldiers?

Right, and since it appeals more to families, it will not have the opening weekend that Star Wars had. Families do not tend to go to movies on opening weekend, they can wait and see it a few weeks later. This is why family movies have such great legs, because not all of the audience goes out in the first three days. If Pirates 2 is to do what you say it can do ($150 million opening weekend) it would have to skew the entire teenage/young adult male population, and they would all have to go out opening weekend. The final Star Wars film, probably the most hyped film of the past few years, could only manage $150 million in four days. Pirates 2 will be very hyped, I'll grant you that, but there's no way that it makes over $50 million in one day. The most I can see it doing is $40-45 million on it's opening day, and that's stretching it. Simply because it doesn't skew male, like you said, and males are the ones who make the big opening weekends for films. There are still a lot of males that'll go to it, but not in the numbers that Sith had.

Now, I agree with you that Pirates 2 can, if it's good, fly past $400 million like Shrek 2 did. Despite what's said on these boards, Shrek 2 was actually very much liked by a lot of children, and thus received a lot of repeat viewings. So Pirates 2 will have to also be good if it's after the $400 million that Shrek 2 accomplished. But Shrek 2 only made $108 million on it's opening weekend, even with a broad range of demographics like Pirates 2. The most I can see Pirates 2 making on opening weekend is $115-120 million. And that would be insane in itself.

Don't get me wrong, I would love to see Pirates 2 break every record in the book (if it lives up to the original). But I just can't see it happening.

Predictions:

Day 1: 46.5
Day 2: 45.2
Day 3: 34.8
Opening: 126.5
2nd Weekend: 59.4 (-53%)
3rd Weekend: 35.0 (-41%)
4th Weekend: 22.9 (-38%)
Total: 417.2 (3.30)

i just don't understand all these OUT OF THIS WORLD predictions for this movie.
comparing it to Shrek2 and Sith. WOW!

They have been hanging with BJ too long.

Some predictions make it second only to Titanic. Maybe they should go all out and say it will gross $602M

Indeed, my optomism is contagious

I find it valid.

-15M+ DVD copies sold, many bought by families
-The wide demographics it reaches, from little kids to teens to twentysomethings to parents to seniors, all of both sexes
-Disney will most definently put it in some huge-ass amount of theaters
-It will get plenty of media hype
-Unlike BTTF or Matrix, POTC is light entertainment, and therefore can get away with a light plot and probably and will probably end with some hint at POTC3 or some light cliffhanger, not like TMR or BTTF2's 'WTFF?' endings

What says you? And 'POTC SUCKS' isn't a valid answer, as over 15M buyers would disagree.

It's a sequel and POTC SUCKS!

j/k

Back to the Future qualifies as "light entertainment" just as much as Pirates of the Caribbean does. And how do you know Dead Man's Chest doesn't end with a "dark cliffhanger"?

The first one did, but the sequel confused the hell out of people. And I said "probably." Twice! Which, BTW, is a tpo.

FYI, Dead Man's Chest *is* apparently going to end in a cliffhanger... which ups PotC3's box-office chances.

And I just want to remind you all that PotC has a HUGE crossover audience with some of the most major sci-fi/fantasy movies out there: LOTR, Star Wars, Harry Potter, and many more. So those who fuel/ed the box-office for those movies will again be doing it for PotC2. And remember: those same people who went and saw PotC1 multiple times in the theater and thus increased its legs... They'll be back, and it'll be a much larger group as well, as there are a lot of new fans that were made via the selling of the DVD.

I really don't think people should underestimate these sequels....

Joy