Here is the list of the Screenplays that I think have a realistic chance in hell of being nominated this year. And yes I listed Get Rich or Die Tryin' because it *is* a Jim Sheridan (In America) film.

Adapted

- All the King's Men - Steven Zaillian [based on the film and the novel]
- Bee Season - Naomi Foner [based on the novel]
- Brokeback Mountain - Larry McMurty and Diana Ossana [based on the short story]
- The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe - Ann Peacock, Andrew Adamson, Christopher Markus and Stephen McFeely [based on the novel]
- The Constant Gardner - Jeffrey Caine [based on the book]
- Derailed - Stuart Beattie [based on the book]
- King Kong - Peter Jackson, Fran Walsh and Philippa Boyens [based on the origional film]
- Jarhead - William Broyles Jr. [based on the book]
- North Country - Michael Seitzman [based on the book Class Action: The Story of Lois Jensen and the Landmark Case that Changed Sexual Harassment Law]
- Memoirs of a Geisha - Akiva Goldsman [based on the novel]
- Pride & Prejudice - Deborah Moggach [based on the novel]
- The Producers: The Movie Musical - Mel Brooks and Thomas Meehan [based on the play which is based on the origional film]
- Rent - Steve Chbosky and Chris Columbus [based on the stage play]
- Shopgirl - Steve Martin [based on the novel]
- Syriana - Stephen Gaghan ["suggested" by the novel]
- Walk the Line - Gill Dennis and James Mangold [based on books The Man in Black and Cash: An Autobiography]
- Where the Truth Lies - Atom Egoyan [based on the novel]

Origional

- Broken Flowers - Jim Jarmusch
- Cinderella Man - Cliff Hollingsworth and Akiva Goldsman
- Crash - Paul Haggis
- Elizabethtown - Cameron Crowe
- The Family Stone - Thomas Bezucha
- Get Rich or Die Tryin' - Terence Winter
- Good Night, and Good Luck - George Clooney and Grant Heslov
- Match Point - Woody Allen
- Munich - Tony Kushner and Eric Roth
- The New World - Terrence Malick
- Prime - Ben Younger
- Stay - David Benioff
- Transamerica - Duncan Tucker
- An Unfinished Life - Mark Spragg and Virginia Korus Spragg
- The Weather Man - Steve Conrad
- Winter Passing - Adam Rapp

I don't know what to do with Munich. I heard it was based on a book called One Day in September: The Full Story of the 1972 Munich Olympics Massacre and the Israeli Revenge Operation "Wrath of God" which itself is a Oscar winning documentary, but Spielberg and the writers have been doing a lot to distance themselves from that novel. I think they consider it origional. IMDB confirms this. So it will switch places theoretically.

Discuss. I'll be back with my thoughts later.

And let me know if you think something is missing.

Out of that list (actually just focusing on Original for now) I'd say the best bets are...

Crash
Munich
(Match Point)
(Broken Flowers)

The rest is all up for grabs, I can't really see any of the other ones REALLY getting in the race unless they break out.


Sorry, I'm tired and gonna sleep, so I'll discuss it more tomorrow!

Martin has a realistic chance to at least be nominated for 'Shopgirl' seeing as it's one of the more acclaimed films of the year. He deserves to be (aside from the unnecessary narration that thankfully isn't plentiful).

Ahem....The Squid and the Whale by Noah Baumbach. Even has a scriptbook already, which would make it much easier to get it to the Academy and WGA screenwriters (who do the nominating)

My predictions:

Original

- Crash - Paul Haggis (a lock)
- The Family Stone - Thomas Bezucha
- Good Night, and Good Luck - George Clooney and Grant Heslov
- Match Point - Woody Allen
- The Squid and the Whale - Noah Baumbach

(The New World removed.. I'm sensing a failure in here... - not as big as Alexander, but still enough to miss the top 8 categories...even with the weak competition this year)

Adapted (assuming Munich is adapted)

- Brokeback Mountain - Larry McMurty and Diana Ossana [based on the short story] (lock)
- The Constant Gardener - Jeffrey Caine [based on the book]
- Memoirs of a Geisha - Akiva Goldsman [based on the novel]
- Munich - Tony Kushner [based on the book ‘Vengeance’ by George Jonas ???]
- Walk the Line - Gill Dennis and James Mangold [based on books The Man in Black and Cash: An Autobiography]

Capote should be up there.

really, the Family Stone.

anyway, I would like Cinderella Man there.

Syriana is also now going for adapted to make the category even more crowded.

Original....

Crash
Munich
Good Night, and Good Luck
Match Point

5th slot is open. Unless Family Stone is REALLY REALLY REALLY good, I don't see it getting this or for the matter, ANY nominations except maybe Keaton or whoever is going supporting.
Andtually, the weak lead actress race might open up another slim possibility.

I will fix this tonight.