11/04/05

Best Picture


01. The most secure film, as of now, to garner a nomination is Walk the Line. Not only is it getting strong reviews, it's already starting to show signs of a heavy Oscar campaign. The main force behind this movie is the duo of acting performances by leading actor and actress Joaquin Pheonix and Reese Witherspoon, both of whom will no doubt earn a nod not only for their acting but singing as well. The movie has alot going for it. In a year completely dominated by films dealing with politics, both social and governmental, this films fits the perfect mold for the feel good, yet drama heavy biopic. Box office should only help it and although it may have the weakest chance of winning when the final five is announced JAnuary 31st, until then this is a sure fire nomination!

02. I have had much reservation when it comes to placing Munich on any of my lists because no one has seen a single bit of the film. We were just notified that the score hadn't even begun recording. Yet, the release date gets closer and closer and everyone is expecting it to wow the academy. I'm not going to lie in that some part of me (although I want to see a great movie) wants it to fail to make the race more interesting. However, the simple release of the poster already set the tone for the kind of run this film is going to have. All it needs is to be a tiny cut above decent and it's in. It will forever stay at the runner-up post to recieve a nod until at least a trailer is released and we can better tell how exactly the film is going to play out...
Edit: I just saw the trailer and will keep it at #2 for now although it will undoubtedly rise to #1 by my next update, which should also coincide with Walk the Line's thetrical debut. The trailer itself was alright; it was a good trailer. But what it showed was definitely more important than the quality of the trailer. If it lives up to what it makes us expect, then it's as good as gold (though I hope now that the Academy waited one more year until playing the against-the-academy-type-Best-Picture-win card).

03. Next up is Memoirs of a Geisha. This film also has been in buzz throughout the year and is awaited by many. At some point I believe it was considered the front-runner. Even though alot has changed, Memoirs still seems to have a more secure place in this race than most other films. It will no doubt be tech heavy and that usually helps. There are many other factors about the film that have made predictors and audiences unsure of what to expect: english language, Rob Marshal's first movie after his debut which was a musical. It doesn't seem as those will have much barring against the movie but with so much potential for overhype followed by disappointment this year... anything can happen. We need a cultural socio-epic on a grandeur scale to ensure the nod and until it's released, or at least till we know more about other films in the running... this is definitely in the top 5!

04. Brokeback Mountain seems to be this years big question mark making it an unconverntional dark horse contender. The project has been in the industry for quite some time and a great deal of people are quite interested to see how this one is going to play out. So far, it has shown probably the best critical support for any movie still to be released (and that's still quite far off) which is extremely good. The response not only for the film but for actor and director makes this a true competitor. I would place this a bit higher if it weren't for the obvious factor. This is the first time that a film whose basis is the love affair of two men is going to get a major release and immense awards push. So, the only factor that seems to stand in its way is whether the Academy will embrace it or not. Other than that, in such a weak year for competiton this film undoubtedly will get the Focus/Indie slot push as well as probably the most media coverage!

05. Finally, a movie that I have actualy seen (in fact only 4 of the 15 movies I have on my list have already been released!). Good Night, and Good Luck. If it weren't for Brokeback Mountain I'd say this was a complete shoe in at this point in the race, probably at #2. Why? Because they're both going for the small indie slot. However, Good Luck does have the backing of its parent studio, Warner Bros. I have no doubt this will be the best reviewed film among all big contenders come crunch time days before nominees are announced and it has ALOT of support. The acting has recieved universal praise; the production and direction is on its way to many accolades and the film itself should be destined to make a mark come January 31st! This is great and classic film-making at its best. I thin it works completely in its favor that so few movies like this one are made today and the fact that it's directed by George Clooney (the largest component of the Academy is th acting branch, alotof whom want to break into directing or so says The Hollywood Reporter). IT will be a waiting game to see if another movie will get substantially more buzz and override this film's novelty, but I can safely bet now that you are ooking at the final five.

I have the rest of the contenders for Best Picture; in my view the definitive 15 from which all nods will be taen... though I'm pretty confident in my top 5.

I'm also working on the lead acting categories.

I will eventuly start posting them all and keep updating them. It's just this weekend I have midterms to study for. Then during the week, I have to take the midterms and next weekend I have a college MUN conference to chair, so it will be a bit slow.

Until I get the commentary out with it, here is my top 10 Directors list....

01. Steven Speilberg, Munich
02. James Mangold, Walk the Line
03. Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain
04. Rob Marshal, Memoirs of a Geisha
05. George Clooney, Good Night and Good Luck
06. Woody Allen, Match Point
07. Paul Haggis, Crash
08. Terrence Mallick, The New World
09. Tommy Lee Jones, The Three Burials of Melquiades Estrada
10. Sam Mendes, Jarhead TIE with...
10. David Cronberg, A History of Violence

That's my same five, in different order.

Speilberg will be nominated, as will Mangold and Marshal. Clooney is good for it but I actually think Cronenberg can pull up the 5th spot over Ang Lee.

I don't consider Brokeback Mountain an extremely strong competitor. It may be weaker than Good Night at this point.

Ang Lee was 3rd in my list. The very last second I brought down Mangold, but fixed it now... Speilberg is ahead as was expected!

I think you might be underestimating Mountain, but I don't want to start arguing for it because there isn't too much to go on. But I will say up to about a month ago, I did not think that Mountain had ANY shot at an Oscar nod for Picture and miimal for anything else. I think Rod is the only one who truly believed from the getgo this might really be something and I think he's right.

Hmmmm... I have a friend who has seen it.

Rod is not the only one. There's people on other sites, but I can't speak for him.

Is it fair for me to say that I think people, on many sites, are more positive about this movie because it seems to appeal to a very young, gay segment of the audience? And that, I don't think a lot of Oscar voters are going to connect with it because of that?

I'm not trying to create angst by saying that, but those are just my feelings on it.

I mean, it's in my top five at the moment, and I will acknowledge that Ledger is in the top 7 or 8 of choices.

Ledger is going to need the critical support from an audience more likely to vote for Hoffman or Strathairn. Brokeback seems to be a movie that is coming up last place, or 3rd, 4th or 5th choice in too many categories. It's a very shaky proposition because it's not going to do incredibly well in it's Box Office Slot against all those other movies (Syriana and Memoirs), it has a director who has an Oscar (not for directing), it doesn't look like a strong Screenplay candidate...

I dunno... there's a lot about Brokeback which is a big question mark.

I will say, if anything falls to a King Kong type entry, it won't be Walk the Line, Munich or Memoirs... so where does that leave us?

Just food for thought

I have it like this right now.

1. Walk the Line - The clear frontrunner. Not only are the lead actor and actress frontrunners (and will probably win), but James Mangold has built up a solid resume, and has already directed one actress (Angelina Jolie) to an Oscar win. Anybody who is underestimating this pictures chances to have a big night is kidding themselves. It has everything going for it. It'll definitely do the box office numbers needed. It stars an up and coming actor who will breakout after this, as well as America's sweetheart, Reese Witherspoon, and who doesn't want Reese to win? Her box office drawing ability will help this film a great deal. The fact that it's about a recently deceased and beloved American icon and his famous recently deceased wife also helps. I also think it will have the biggest mainstream appeal, and will especially appeal to women because of the love story, which there isn't much of in this year's race. Simply put, this is a powerhouse contender!

2. Memoirs of a Geisha/The New World - On paper, I give the edge to Geisha because it's a more lavish production.

3. Syriana/Munich - I'm not going to be silly and put anything at #1 because of a trailer. Both of these films have a good chance to become major forces, but I don't think both will. I think Syriana has the more intersting trailer, but it's close enough to consider that they could both be excellent films of equal quality. Munich seems a little more high profile because it's Spielberg, but Syriana seems like it's a more topical and controversial movie.

4. Brokeback Mountain - Of all the smaller films, it's got the controversial subject matter of homosexuality that it deals with, and also has a runtime that Capote and Good Night, and Good Luck don't have, and I think that'll be important in the BP race.

5. This spot is the wild card. It'll either go to light comedy fare like The Family Stone or Match Point, or one of the musicals like Rent or the Producers.

Match Point is heavy drama.

It doesn't have the quirky Woody Allen comedy element to it?

Nah.

Well, actually, The Family Stone is more dramdey than comedy, or so Libs says, so I still see both of those films being up for the 5th spot with the musicals.

IMDB lists it as a Drama/Thriller.

It is an adult relationship drama. It's like the serious side of Melinda and Melinda

The Family Stone looks like it could come 'round.

BTW, I think it was Poland (I could be wrong) that panned Rent. Rent might not be for-sure, we'll have to see.

Crash isn't out of this yet, and neither is Cinderella Man, which comes out on video December 6th. It's a shame for both of those films that they weren't released now instead of when they were, or we'd probably be seriously considering them for one of the spots.

Yeah, Poland trashed Rent.

Family Stone isn't off to a good start either an only score of 79 at BFCA website.

I think Crash is very much in this race. I have it as my #7 or 8!

Crash should have been released on DVD in November.

IMO it had a very successful DVD release, but it just came out too early in all aspects.

I've read they're going to give the DVD another big push come December!

It still won't help it much, although it looks like they acknowledge that they were to quick to release the DVD.

I had my doubts about Brokeback Mountain since the begining but because it was Ang Lee and it was based on an acclaimed short story I also knew if it was big, it would be huge.

While it's becoming more and more likely that movies like Walk the Line are pretty much locks for a best picture nomination, I think of BM is nominated (and I think it will) it will be hard to beat.

What makes you think that Brokeback Mountain has the chops to win?

King Kong



I agree with "Walk the Line", and maybe "Munich"

I disagree with "Memoirs", and "Good Night"

I'd put "Crash" ahead of "Brokeback"... so thats 4... and the first two words in this post gets the #5 spot and will win... in my mind

Walk the Line, Munich and Memoirs of a Geisha would all seem very likely.

The Family Stone won't get a best picture nom. It's all about the script/cast. Rent probably won't get a nom and The Producers looks just like the stageshow from the trailers, so that's all about Uma.

Two movies you certainly can't discount are King Kong and Casanova. The first is a big epic from an Oscar winning director and the second is an epic period piece in the vein of Amadeus, and it's likely to be frontrunners in costumes, production design, etc. It also has a bunch of solid supporting performances and it will make money. Remember, best picture nominations tend to have a lot of noms and they have to make enough money to be considered. I'm not so sure Brokeback Mountain will get best picture as much as noms for the cast and Ang Lee.

Crash is still in and if some upcoming December releases prove to be weak, it will just strengthen its position.

My current guesses would be (in no specific order):

1. Memoirs of a Geisha
2. Munich
3. Walk the Line
4. The New World
5. Crash/Good Night, and Good Luck


Really can't see Brokeback Mountain being nominated.

This will probably change by tomorrow or something, heh:

Munich
Memoirs of a Geisha
Walk the Line
King Kong
Good Night, and Good Luck

If Match Point and The Family Stone are good enough, they could get in, but I see acting/writing nominations in their future, not a Picture nom.

For now.. (for a nomination)

1. Munich
2. Walk the Line
3. Brokeback Mountain
4. Memoirs of a Gueisha
5. Crash

Since I really don't have any other (valid) ideas for a 5th spot, I put Crash... The Family Stone looks like this year's Something's Gotta Give, and as for Rent/The Producers, they don't seem to have what it takes to be a BP nominee.. and I really can't see Good Night and Good Luck in - just as some of you can't see Brokeback Mountain in... Same thing for Capote, A History of Violence, ...

Wow, King Kong?

Actually I also think that King Kong is a real contender.
Unfortunately, I don't think it will make the top 5 and when it doesn't those who didn't believe in it will say it never had a chance!