__________HARRY POTTER 4__________
____________GOBLET OF FIRE____________





Worldwide:

Harry Potter 1: SS - $317,575,550 + $658,900,000 = $976,475,550
Harry Potter 2: COS - $261,988,482 + $614,700,000 = $876,688,482
Harry Potter 3: POA - $249,541,069 + $540,250,000 = $789,791,069

Harry Potter 4: GOF - $285m + $625m = $910m - Prediction


Japan:

Harry Potter 1: PS - $12.9m // $170m - 13.1x
Harry Potter 2: COS - $16.7m // $164m - 9.82x
Harry Potter 3: POA - $17.2m // $131m - 7.6x

Harry Potter 4: GOF - $20m // $150m - Prediction

Nov 26 - Harry Potter 4
Dec 03 - Mr And Mrs. Smith
Dec 10 - Memoirs of a Geisha
Dec 14 - King Kong
Dec 17 - Chicken Little


United Kingdom:

Harry Potter 1: PS - £16,335,627 (US$23m) // £66,096,060 (US$91.5m) - 4.04x
Harry Potter 2: COS - £18,871,829 (US$29.8m) // £54,780,731 (US$85.7m) - 2.9x
Harry Potter 3: POA - £23,882,688 (US$43.7m) // £46,077,489 (US$84.5) - 1.93x

Harry Potter 4: GOF - £19.5m (US$35m) // £55m (US$100m) - Prediction

Nov 18 - Harry Potter 4
Dec 08 - Chronicles of Narnia
Dec 15 - King Kong
Dec 26 - The Producers


Germany:

Harry Potter 1: PS - 2.590.464 adms. (US$14.8m) // 12.556.007 adms. (US$68m) - 4.84x
Harry Potter 2: COS - 2.489.952 adms. (US$16.28m) // 9.693.596 adms. (US$60m) - 3.9x
Harry Potter 3: POA - 1.987.285 adms. (US$15.27m) // 6.545.279 adms. (US$48.7m) - 3.3x

Harry Potter 4: GOF - 2.6m adms. (US$20m) // 9.0m adms. (US$69m) - Prediction

Nov 16 - Harry Potter 4
Dec 08 - Chronicles of Narnia
Dec 14 - King Kong
Dec 22 - Rumor Has It


France:

Harry Potter 1: PS $10.2m // $48.1m - 4.71x
Harry Potter 2: COS - $13.5m // $53.3m - 3.95x
Harry Potter 3: POA - $17.1m // $47m - 2.75x

Harry Potter 4: GOF - $20m // $54m - Prediction

Nov 30 - Harry Potter 4
Dec 07 - Chicken Little
Dec 14 - King Kong
Dec 21 - Chronicles of Narnia
Dec 28 - Pride & Prejudice


Italy:

Harry Potter 1: PS $5.5m // $35.8m - 6.5x
Harry Potter 2: COS - $5.4m // $29.7m - 5.5x
Harry Potter 3: POA - $6.9m // $20m - 2.9x

Harry Potter 4: GOF - $7.5m // $25m - Prediction

Nov 25 - Harry Potter 4
Dec 02 - Chicken Little, Mr And Mrs. Smith
Dec 09 - Wallace & Gromit
Dec 16 - Natale a Miami, King Kong, Memoirs of A Geisha
Dec 21 - Chronicles of Narnia


Spain:

Harry Potter 1: PS $4.4m // $24.6 - 5.59x
Harry Potter 2: COS - $5.6m // $24.2m - 4.32x
Harry Potter 3: POA - $6.4m // $19.6m - 3.06x

Harry Potter 4: GOF - $8m // $28m - Prediction

Nov 18 - Chicken Little
Nov 25 - Harry Potter 4
Dec 16 - King Kong
Dec 25 - Chronicles of Narnia


Australia:

Harry Potter 1: PS AUD$9,249,505 (US$4.8m) // AUD$42,310,037 (US$21.6m) - 4.57x
Harry Potter 2: COS - AUD$10,640,941 (US$5.9m) // AUD$37,379,563 (US$21m) - 3.5x
Harry Potter 3: POA - AUD$11,935,745 (US$8.6m) // AUD$33,030,534 (US$23.1m - 2.77x

Harry Potter 4: GOF - AUD$12.5m (US$9.4m) // AUD$38m (US$27.4m) - Prediction

Dec 01 - Harry Potter 4
Dec 14 - King Kong
Dec 26 - Chronicles of Narnia, Legend of Zorro, Fun With Dick & Jane
Jan 01 - Chicken Little

It won't go much passed POA numbers.
Around $550-$575m.



WOW! Japan freaking luvs Harry.

Awesome that you posted those numbers in that way. I'm just curious though... in each country you listed but one, you have GOF opening better than POA. In the UK you don't. Was there something different about the POA number in the UK that would make GOF not able to beat it? I thought that was especially surprising since I figured GOF would get a tiny boost from having a British director. Just curious as to the reasoning there. I would have predicted a US 45M opening and a 108M total.

Although not a Potthead i'm looking forward to the numbers it'll generate. Finally some real excitement again...

Here's hoping it'll do less than HP3...

If i recall correctly POA opened on a monday (or tuesday) in the UK, thus having a 7(or 6)-day opening, hence the extremely high numbers for it.

Correct, you have a good memory! It opened on a Monday in the UK, essentially giving it a 7 day 'opening weekend' which i think is just cheating.

This time (and i may be wrong) I believe it is opening on a friday with plenty of midnight showings but no previews. So i doubt the opening will come close to the previous film. Somewhere between the first and second film's opening is more likely. I also don't see the total going much over £46million (the third film), maybe just topping out at £50million but i see that as the maximum for this film.

Since POA opened on Monday, I agree with the 35M/100M UK prediction. My hope is that as the characters get older, more and more teens and young adults will get into the series, while the younger kids will still be able to go with the PG-13 rating. Whether that happens or not really depends on the quality of this movie. Great WOM could expand the audience, but it the movie is too much like POA, a similar gross could result (a little higher though because of the season).

Andrew and Nazgul9 are both correct , I'm very happy that some people can recall such details...

Harry Potter 3 actually did $17,478,583/ £9,346,002 from the Friday-Sunday portion of its opening...3rd largest of all-time behind ROTS ($20,155,733/ £11,029,267) and Shrek 2 ($19,366,328/ £10,673,350).

Hence why i predicted US$35m......however, after Andrew said that there will be no advance previews (which the first 2 movies had a week prior to their release)......i'm changing this to $27-30m.

LMAO

I think it'll open even bigger in Germany. The advance sales ere are going great and started a long while ago. The movie actually opens on a WEDNESDAY and not a Thursday unlike the previous outings, so it'll have one extra day PLUS it also has midnight shows on the night from Tuesday to Wednesday all over the country. It will have 3,000,000 admissions over the weekend.

Actually Goblet of Fire is having previews in the monday to thursday before at least in my local area they are (Birmingham) It wont be as much as Prisoner

of Azkaban though because that opened on a Bank holiday monday (most people get the day of) and that whole week was half-term meaning all the

children were out of school. I dont know if that makes any difference to anyones predictions.

The largest opening weekend, regardless of days is as follows:

LOTR: ROTK - 2.666.776 adms. 5-Day (2.050.776 adms. 4-Day)
LOTR: TTT - 2.634.701 adms. 5-Day (2.021.239 adms. 4-Day)
Harry Potter 2 - 2.489.952 adms. (4-Day)
Harry Potter 1 - 2.590.464 adms. (4-Day)
LOTR: FOTR - 2.239.864 adms. 5-Day (1.813.898 adms. 4-Day)
(T)Raumschiff Surprise - 2.164.909 adms. (4-Day)
Finding Nemo - 2.032.136 adms (4-Day)
Harry Potter 3 - 1.987.285 adms. (4-Day)
Star Wars 3 - 1.964.960 adms (4-Day)
Men In Black 1 - 1.954.972 adms. (4-Day)
Independence Day - 1.918.566 adms (4-Day)

While I think 3m admissions is tough to crack, even for Potter - I'm sure it will clock in the vicinity of 2.8-3m admissions for the 5-Days.

I wonder if Narnia can hit 2m admissions in Germany, are the books as popular in Germany as Harry Potter or LOTR?

Not at all. I didn't know that, but read it recently. There are only 670,000 Narnia books sold in Germany so far and that's really a small number. Narnia is virtually unknown here. Then again, folks here like fantasy anyway, so being a book fan is not a requirement, but I think now it will make here less than I originally thought. It might not even crack 1,000,000 admissions opening weekend.

Surprising,

I would think that the Narnia books are right up there with LOTR/Hobbit and Harry Potter in Europe

Harry Potter Tickets Casting a Spell on Fandango in Advance of the Film's Nov. 18 Opening

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/051104/laf030.html?.v=29

LOS ANGELES, Nov. 4 /PRNewswire/ -- An unstoppable phenomenon for both readers and moviegoers alike, Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire is already generating magical advance ticket sales online. The highly anticipated movie is accounting for the majority of Fandango's weekly ticket sales, two full weeks before its November 18 release date.

At this point in the film's sales cycle, Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire is Fandango's fastest selling Potter installment to date. In 2004, the last Potter film, Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban broke several Fandango records, including hourly, daily and weekly sales. In a recent poll on http://www.fandango.com, the majority (47 percent) of moviegoing voters picked Goblet as their favorite novel in the J.K. Rowling series, another indicator of the strong anticipation for the movie version

Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire Tracking to Place in MovieTickets.com's

http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/stori ... 032&EDATE=

LOS ANGELES, Nov. 10 /PRNewswire/ -- Heading into its opening weekend, Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire is tracking to break into MovieTickets.com's top 10 list, which tallies the company's largest number of tickets sold online for a single movie. MovieTickets.com, the most powerful Internet movie ticketing service, has experienced record advance sales for the
fourth installment of the Harry Potter movie series, as Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire has sold three times more tickets than Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban in a comparable timeframe. Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire opens in theaters nationwide on November 18, 2005.

As ticket sales always exponentially increase each day up to the release date, we can expect to sell more Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire tickets than we did for Prisoner of Azkaban," said Joel Cohen, vice president, business development, MovieTickets.com. "Once this fourth installment becomes a MovieTickets.com's best seller, Goblet of Fire should nudge out Spiderman 2 from our top 10 best selling movies of all time, making the Harry Potter franchise account for 40% of the top 10."

The following are MovieTickets.com's top 25 best sellers of all time:

# 1 Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith
# 2 The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
# 3 The Passion of the Christ
# 4 The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
# 5 Star Wars: Episode II -- Attack of the Clones
# 6 The Matrix Reloaded
# 7 Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets
# 8 Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban
# 9 Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone
#10 Spider-Man 2
#11 Shrek 2
#12 Spider-Man
#13 The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring
#14 The Matrix Revolutions
#15 The Incredibles
#16 Finding Nemo
#17 X2
#18 Austin Powers in Goldmember
#19 Fahrenheit 9/11
#20 War of the Worlds
#21 Meet the Fockers
#22 Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl
#23 Charlie and the Chocolate Factory
#24 Batman Begins
#25 Bruce Almighty

Harry Potter 4 - Release Dates

Week 1:

Austria 16 November 2005
Germany 16 November 2005
Philippines 16 November 2005
United Arab Emirates 16 November 2005
Malaysia 17 November 2005
Puerto Rico 17 November 2005
Singapore 17 November 2005
Switzerland 17 November 2005 (German speaking region)
Thailand 17 November 2005
China 18 November 2005
Denmark 18 November 2005
Finland 18 November 2005
India 18 November 2005
Indonesia 18 November 2005
Ireland 18 November 2005
Mexico 18 November 2005
Norway 18 November 2005
Sweden 18 November 2005
Taiwan 18 November 2005
Turkey 18 November 2005
UK 18 November 2005


Week 2:

Argentina 23 November 2005
Belgium 23 November 2005
Egypt 23 November 2005
Netherlands 23 November 2005
Bolivia 24 November 2005
Chile 24 November 2005
New Zealand 24 November 2005
Peru 24 November 2005
Portugal 24 November 2005
Brazil 25 November 2005
Colombia 25 November 2005
Estonia 25 November 2005
Greece 25 November 2005
Iceland 25 November 2005
Italy 25 November 2005
Panama 25 November 2005
Poland 25 November 2005
Spain 25 November 2005
Switzerland 25 November 2005 (Italian speaking region)
Japan 26 November 2005


Week 3:

France 30 November 2005
Switzerland 30 November 2005 (French speaking region)
Australia 1 December 2005
Croatia 1 December 2005
Hungary 1 December 2005
Bulgaria 2 December 2005
Lithuania 2 December 2005
South Africa 2 December 2005


Week 4:

Czech Republic 8 December 2005
Israel 8 December 2005
Slovakia 8 December 2005
Slovenia 8 December 2005


Week 5:

South Korea 16 December 2005


Week 6:

Hong Kong 22 December 2005
Lebanon 22 December 2005
Russia 22 December 2005
Serbia 22 December 2005
Ukraine 22 December 2005
Cyprus 23 December 2005
Romania 23 December 2005

The advance sales are going very well in Germany for midnights shows from what I gathered in my theatres.

Should be a cracker of an opening, we'll see if it breaks the 3m admission mark on opening weekend

No midnight shows in Australia for HARRY. Also GOBLET has been rated 'M15+'. It could actually hurt Harry in the long run. Because a movie that goes from PG to M is bigger than PG-PG13 in the US.

I added some correction from WB site;

Week 1:

Philippines 16 November 2005
Egypt 16 November 2005
Germany 17 November 2005
Malaysia 17 November 2005
Puerto Rico 17 November 2005
Singapore 17 November 2005
Switzerland 17 November 2005 (German speaking region)
Thailand 17 November 2005
Austria 18 November 2005
China 18 November 2005
Denmark 18 November 2005
Finland 18 November 2005
India 18 November 2005
Indonesia 18 November 2005
Ireland 18 November 2005
Mexico 18 November 2005
Norway 18 November 2005
Sweden 18 November 2005
Taiwan 18 November 2005
Turkey 18 November 2005
UK 18 November 2005


Week 2:

Belgium 23 November 2005
Netherlands 23 November 2005
Argentina 24 November 2005
Bolivia 24 November 2005
Chile 24 November 2005
Greece 24 November 2005
New Zealand 24 November 2005
Peru 24 November 2005
Portugal 24 November 2005
Slovenia 24 November 2005
Brazil 25 November 2005
Colombia 25 November 2005
Cyprus 25 November 2005
Estonia 25 November 2005
Iceland 25 November 2005
Italy 25 November 2005
Panama 25 November 2005
Poland 25 November 2005
Spain 25 November 2005
Switzerland 25 November 2005 (Italian speaking region)
Japan 26 November 2005


Week 3:

France 30 November 2005
Switzerland 30 November 2005 (French speaking region)
Australia 1 December 2005
Croatia 1 December 2005
Czech Republic 1 December 2005
Hungary 1 December 2005
Slovakia 1 December 2005
South Korea 1 December 2005
Bulgaria 2 December 2005
Lithuania 2 December 2005
Romania 2 December 2005
South Africa 2 December 2005
Venezuela 2 December 2005


Week 4:

Israel 8 December 2005


Week 6:

United Arab Emirates 21 December 2005
Hong Kong 22 December 2005
Lebanon 22 December 2005
Serbia 22 December 2005
Ukraine 22 December 2005
Russia 23 December 2005

We're gonna see this movie on 16 November! Yippe!

So from a point of logic it should do less than HP3. But I feel a lot of hype so I think it will do around HP2 numbers. It will be a close race between EP3 and HP4 for the highest grossing movie of the Year.

I'll be very surprised if HP4 doesn't end up being the #1 film of the year Worldwide.

The Harry Potter franchise has dominated internationally and worldwide every year it was released, only ROTK managed to upstage the boy wonder overseas (Titanic aside).....but no Potter movie was launched that year.

Look for a total around $875m-$925m.

Shrek 2 outgrossed Azkaban and Chamber of Secrets worldwide.

LOL, yes, OK Shrek 2 did outgross HP3 Worldwide so much for being an overseas box office specialist .....

Anyhow, you get the idea....HP3 still dominated overseas despite fighting for the same audience with Shrek 2.

This time, it has 3 weeks to breathe before Kong (Narnia doesn't factor in until Dec 21 in most markets) and has Christmas and New Years ahead of it...