How? Shes dirtied and trashed down in both roles, to the point of where her good looks are taken out in favour of a tougher edge. Complete opposite would be, like, an older Clueless. Make-up girl. This is as similar almost as she can get between the two.

Shack, no offense, but you seriously don't argue points very well. How is she dirtied and trashed down?


There's a picture of her from the film. How are her good looks taken away? Are you trying to argue that she goes around in the whole movie looking like she does in Libs' avatar? Also, isn't this a film about sexual harrassment? (meaning she's treated like a sex object?)

Like I said, you don't argue points very well.

plus

in Monster, she played, I didn't see it but I think this is what she was, a cold blooded lesbian ......

and in North Country, she plays the Erin Broc role where she is balancing trying to work, fight equality, deal with her father and raise her children.

Who cares is she is just not very attractive or prettied up in either role.

Yeah, now that I've seen it, I can tell you once again how full of shit that comparison is.

I think Charlize will probably get a nomination. Not many lead roles out there in which an actress carries the entire film on her back.

The perception is indeed there, due to the film is about mining and Theron did get her face all dirty in a few scene shown in the trailer. BOM's article indicated that perception:

"Centering promotion around star Charlize Theron making herself look ugly again after winning the Oscar for Monster did not help the cause—contrary to the industry's predilections, audiences don't need grunginess to take actresses seriously."

Anyway, I now think Theron is not necessarily in the lock ground, although it's still highly likely considering how weak the category looks to be this year. She needs some mentions in critic awards season (not many, just a few to keep her name out there will be enough, like a Golden Globe Best Actress Drama nominee, which shouldn't be hard) as the film could be forgotten quickly like White Oleander was.

I think Charlize will be remembered. While North Country certainly isn't a BP-type of film, all the players offered great performances. Charlize won't have a problem getting the nomination if -like you said- people keep talking about her. It's probably the best performance of the year, in my opinion. (Crash also had fantastic performances, but I tend to think of those as supporting. Otherwise, nothing comes to mind...)

I've heard so many people regard Theron as a lock and I'm skeptical too. The movie didn't get excellent reviews and the box office is very poor. She's probably the best chance for the movie, but I still doubt her nomination.

She's not a problem in the film. She's fantastic, and as I've stated, the only lead actress that completely carries the film without any other leads helping her. I'd have to double check that, but it seems that all the others are "co-leads", while Charlize is North Country's only lead character.

Memoirs is going to have to royally suck for Zhang Ziyi not to get a nomination. Reese is gonna win. Judy Dench will be nominated. I'd give Charlize equal footing with Paltrow this year. They could decided to nominated even Joan Allen from waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay back when.

I mean, who else is left?

2005 is the year of the Oscar Apocalypse. Botched releases of major awards leaning films, severe market miscalculation. Most of the indies have sucked this year. Most of the majors have sucked so far...

BA is wide open. The only one I'm sold on is Reese, the rest I have no idea. I'm not buying into this Judi Dench hype. Heres to a movie shocking the hell out of us in December and becoming a frontrunner...

My picks from Oct. 13th. I'm pretty much feeling the same way now on Oct. 25th.

Minus Patricia Clarkson.

I'm not sure Munich will make it this year. I still think Jarhead could take that spot. We'll see how the rest of the reviews turn out. Not sure Diaz can pull a nomination for In Her Shoes, too... it's a fantastic movie, but she didn't deliver an Oscar-caliber performance imo. Instead of Patricia Clarkson, I'd put in Frances McDormand for BSA. Also.... I'm thinking Heath Ledger might get a BA nom for Brokeback. Last thing (I promise, heh), I seriously doubt Costner will get a nomination- I'd prefer Sarsgaard for that spot.

Otherwise, those predictions seem spot on.

David Poland's updated charts:

Picture

Director

Actor/Supporting Actor

Actress/Supporting Actress

Screenplay

JARHEAD, by all accounts, appears to be dead in the water. Disappointing.

GOOD NIGHT AND GOOD LUCK needs some box office heat to stay afloat, but it's already exceeded my expectations, buzz-wise. Can't wait to actually see the thing.

It's a shame CONSTANT GARDENER has been forgotten the way it has. No one seems to remember it exists, let alone how wonderful it was. That's a September release date for you.

HISTORY OF VIOLENCE looks pretty out of it too. As I, humbleness aside, predicted. Middling box office + the actual content of the movie (which I enjoyed immensely) = no major nominations.

I just now saw Poland's charts.....and he's out of his mind if he thinks they'll nominate MRS HENDERSON *and* THE PRODUCERS. I'd be over-the-moon if the academy would, Xenu forbid, nominate TWO comedies for BP. But we know they won't.

Do you mean "No BP" or "No Major Nominations" because that's saying two separate things.

Why do you guys keep mentioning his updates? I mean, I don't mean to nit-pick, I'm just wondering if he has some cred tht has been established; otherwise his Best Picture predctions are utter crap! The acting nods and some of the screenplay ones are reasonable and some may be spot on. But what the hell is he thinking? I guarantee the final 5 will not include AT LEAST 3 of his current top 5!

Brokeback Mountain and Good Night, and Good Luck are just about the MOST buzzed pictures of the year BY A LANDSLIDE!!!! and he has them uner #7??

Because David Poland is a professional critic, has his own column at MovieCityNews (Hot Button), and probably the most well-known person (along with Jeffrey Wells and Tom O'Neil) out there to follow Oscar season very closely. His prediction accuracy is no better than say TheFilmExperience or many other oscar forecast sites, but his article is always an interesting read and has some weights because he is a "industry insider". Also, not the least, many people consider Poland an ass anyway (a little better regard than Jeffrey Wells though) and like to pick on him.

I think Poland is a good read. I'm likely to read his column at other times of the year than during Oscar season though.

Andaroo, I mean no Major Nominations (Picture, Direcot, Actor), although I suppose Hurt or Bello (or both!) could squeak into the supporting categories.

I can't believe this is possible, but is ROTS not completley dead in the water yet?

The movie itself was so much above quality, and for a lot of people here at least its either at #1 film or the year or close. With contenders dropping left and right, would they reach back? They could honor Lucas for all of his contributions to film, the way they did Peter Jackson with ROTK. And the FYC ads are shooting at all categorys. If we lose Jarhead, Munich(moved?), King Kong if it fails to impress as the blockbuster choice, maybe Sith shouldn't be counted out. It would be by far the people's choice. Guy who plays Palpatine could pick up a supporting nom too.

Latest David Poland's weekly article and update:

http://www.moviecitynews.com/columnists ... 51103.html

http://www.moviecitynews.com/columnists ... cture.html

http://www.moviecitynews.com/columnists ... ector.html

http://www.moviecitynews.com/columnists ... Actor.html

http://www.moviecitynews.com/columnists ... tress.html

http://www.moviecitynews.com/columnists ... nplay.html


Poland is still too stubborn with some of his personal favorites instead of looking things objectively, such as Best Director for Fernando Meirelles (The Constant Gardener) and continuing love for Mrs. Henserson Presents. I also think GNAGL is clearly ahead of Capote at this point. However, a very encouraging thing for me personally is to hear the test numbers for Memoirs of a Geisha jumped significantly. It's getting close to be a lock now.

Who's due for an Oscar?

http://msnbc.msn.com/id/9959160/

Great article even though it has little relevance to the Oscar race at habd.
Just makes me more sure Hoffman won't win this year.