I think 3 spots are already filled:

Marshall, Mendes, and Spielberg.

The only question is who can fight it out for the final two.

Cronenberg, Lee, Meirelles, Howard, Jackson, Polanski, ... the list is actually somewhat long.

For the big ones, I think: Speilburg is in, Mendes is in. Rob Marshall is a mayybee because the movie hasn't been lighting the world on fire. Polanski is out, Crowe is out, and Howard has just an outiside shot.

I think Spielberg is in. War of the Worlds + even a mediocre Munich is too much!

Mendes is a close maybe.

Marshall... I dunno.

Cronenberg and Clooney have a hearty shot, as their films are loved.

James Mangold?

I would go with Mendes, Spielberg, Mangold being the 3 top spots right now. Woody Allen could slip in there, too. I think it's a pretty open field, but the first 3 mentioned are the ones I'd expect to see nominated at this point.

I think maybe we're overhyping Jarhead. Even if it gets great reviews, Mendes is in no way a lock.

I'm thinking Cronenberg will get the nod this time. His film was much better-received than Mulholland Drive (I've read a couple people comparing A History of Violence to Mulholland Drive because, like it, it's an example of an indie, eccentric director making a more "mainstream" film, even though both A History of Violence and Mulholland Drive are still...different, to say the least), so I'm thinking if Lynch made it, Cronenberg will. Of course, that logic is way too simplistic.

As of today...............

George Clooney - Good Night, And Good Luck
Paul Haggis - Crash
Jim Jarmusch - Broken Flowers
James Mangold - Walk the Line
Steven Spielberg - Munich

Haggis and Jarmusch are probably the odd men out on my list, but I think the other three are almost locks.

Marshall, Spieldberg, and Mendes are in no way sure things considering little is known about the movies.

There's always bound to be a dissapointment and since we already know (even if they don't perform as well as is thought at the oscars) movies like brokeback mountain and walk the line are generally well liked...my choice for most likely to dissapoint are any of these three movies. For sure not all three will make it.

There are no real locks in this category, but even if Brokeback Mountain were to miss out I think Ang Lee will be nominated. George Clooney will be a strong contender as will Tommy Lee Jones. Woody Allen is also one of the safer bets.

1. Ang Lee
2. Steven Spieldberg
3. Woody Allen
4. David Cronenberg
5. Tommy Lee Jones

6. George Clooney
7. Sam Mendes
8. James Mangold
9. Meirelles
10 Marshall

...Paul Haggis, Terrence Malick and Steven Zaillian

Why? Don't get me wrong, I think Brokeback Mountain will be nominated, but the Academy definately doesn't owe Lee an Oscar, he has one for Crouching Tiger (Best Foreign Film).

Cause judging from the reviews it is gonna be a great film. Even if they were to be too afraid to actually nominate the film itself, I think they would want to reward Ang Lee for taking it on in and doing what he did with it.

I think both will be nominated (film and Lee) but I think Lee is safer than the movie itself. Plus for the same reason Allen and Spieldber are strong contenders this year. They might hvae won in the past, but it's about respect. And Lee might not have been around for as long as Allen and Spieldberg, but I think he's gaining a spot up there with both (you know, The Hulk aside).

christopher nolan....

His best film!

jmart is the only other guy that thinks Jarmusch might have a shot?

Jarmusch has no shot.

If anything Cronenberg would get a nomination long before Jarmusch.

Well, I'm eagerly looking forward to seeing Broken Flowers. It's "coming soon!" to my local specialty and independent theater, and I was hoping it would be this weekend, but Thumbsucker is there, so it'll definitely be this month sometime. It was in less than 500 theaters, so not many of us have seen it yet.

1. Woody Allen
2. George Clooney
3. Sam Mendes
4. David Cronenberg
5. Steve Spielberg

OK, that might be a bit of a stretch, but I would love for that to happen.

This would be fun, too:

Mangold
Marshall
Malick
Mendes
Meirelles

I never do Director predictions until close to the end.

They usually follow the pictures fairly closely.

I mean who last year was talking Mike Leigh! Crazy talk!

actually i believe this is the point where the film hasnt yet been released but is aobut to be and reviews are raving over it and talking vera drake best picture but before it dissapoints at the box office, so....




I doubt Broken Flowers will get anything.

I liked Malick more when he hardly made films. Now, he's a film factory. Fall back into the shadows Malick, it's ok.

Yeah I mean... 7 years since his last movie, and 17 years since the previous one. SLOW DOWN Malick.

David Poland's updated picks:

http://www.moviecitynews.com/columnists ... ector.html

If I Had To Pick 5 Today

Steven Spielberg - Munich - Stevie wonder.

Fernando Meirelles - The Constant Gardener - Virtualy undeniable... for directors

James Mangold - Walk The Line - Well deserved in combination with a Best Pic nom

Bennett Miller - Capote - The newcomer on the little movie that could

Stephen Frears - Mrs. Henderson Presents - One of the great veterans, slumming a little here, but riding the Best Pic wave

Running Close

Susan Stroman - The Producers - The one who gets Best Pic, but gets left out

Ang Lee - Brokeback Mountain - Surprsingly, only ever nominated for Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon. So unless Brokeback gets to Best Pic or they change the name to Crouching Cowboy, Hidden Salami, he wil likley come up short

Terence Malick - The New World - If the movie makes the fivesome

Rob Marshall - Memoirs of a Geisha - Prior nod helps, but movie needs to take him there

Steven Zaillian - All The King's Men - His fate is with the picture

Further Back

Stephen Gaghan - Syriana - Fly him to the moon

Woody Allen - Match Point - The movie probably not too close to Best Pic, though Allen has found a strong set of drama muscles

Sam Mendes - Jarhead - Don't worry, be happy.

David Cronenberg - A History Of Violence - Should be more closely considered

Ron Howard - Cinderella Man - He coulda been a contenda

Jim Sheridan - Get Rich Or Die Tryin' - A reach, but if the film surprises...

My current predictions:

Woody Allen (Match Point)
Steven Spielberg (Munich)
James Mangold (Walk the Line)
Fernando Meirelles (The Constant Gardener)
George Clooney (Good Night, and Good Luck)


I no longer think Rob Marshall will get a nom.

If it's a 4/5 split, I too can see Clooney getting in over Marshall.

With 33% for Geisha at RT now, I am not sure whether Marshall is even at the 6th spot now...

I'm fairly new to RT, has there ever been a situation where a film opened that low and ended up COTC or fresh?